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The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after five weeks:
- Spenser Davis: 30-20
- Ethan Stone: 28-22
- Paul Harvey: 25–25
- Derek Peterson: 23–27
Let’s dive in.
No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas (-5)
Spenser Davis: Oklahoma has done a lot to close the gap on Texas, who won 49-0 in this game a year ago. But keeping this under a touchdown seems like a tall task for an OU team that is light on NFL-quality playmakers (especially by its own standards). Weird things can happen at the Texas State Fair, but I think the most likely outcome here is Texas cruising to a double-digit win. PICK: Texas
Paul Harvey: Oklahoma might have the quietest 5-0 start for a team that has been borderline dominant in every game thus far. I’m sure the level of competition can be questioned at times, but the Sooners are much improved from a season ago. I like Texas with the outright win, but I’ll go with the Sooners to keep it to a field goal. PICK: Oklahoma
Derek Peterson: This Texas team might be legit. OU won four straight meetings in this series — and 10 of 13 — until last year’s 49-0 drubbing. I think the Sooners should put up a better fight than what they showed a year ago, but I think the balance of power has flipped in this series. PICK: Texas
Ethan Stone: Oklahoma’s start has been impressive and, as my coworkers have pointed out, quiet. It was so easy to forget about the Sooners this season. Dillon Gabriel is playing out of his mind and there’ll be revenge on the mind after 49-0 last season. Whoever wins, and I think I lean Texas, it’ll be a close one. For that, I’ll take the Sooners PICK: Oklahoma
Maryland at No. 4 Ohio State (-20)
SD: I think Ohio State might be feeling a bit too confident coming out of the bye. Maryland feels undervalued to me at +20 and I think the Terps could pose some issues for Ohio State’s secondary. PICK: Maryland
PH: I genuinely love what Mike Locksley and Taulia Tagovailoa have accomplished together at Maryland. That includes pushing OSU to the wire last season. However, this game is in Columbus with the Buckeyes coming off a bye and likely wanting to make a statement. PICK: Ohio State
DP: Ohio State wins by two scores, not by three. PICK: Maryland
ES: This game means too much to Maryland for them to lose by more than 20. The Terps have been flirting with getting over the hump for a few seasons now, and while I don’t think they have what it takes to win this outright, they can keep it to a few touchdowns. PICK: Maryland
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States: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KY, LA, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA
No. 23 LSU (-4) at No. 21 Missouri
SD: LSU is in the danger zone here, I think. LSU’s CFP hopes are all-but-gone and now it has to go play a red-hot Mizzou team in one of its most-anticipated home games in years? I don’t think LSU is up for this. PICK: Missouri
PH: We’re really running it back with LSU as a road favorite? Against one of the most spotless QBs in the country? Really? I understand LSU has a more talented roster, but I can’t buy into what Brian Kelly has going right now. PICK: Missouri
DP: All the way out on the Tigers, especially against a Missouri team that won’t give them any extra chances. PICK: Missouri
ES: Mizzou plays so well at home, that’s what makes this tough. I’m not sure how LSU is favored here and I think It’ll be close, which makes me want to take the points. PICK: Missouri
No. 13 Washington State at UCLA (-3)
SD: It’s tempting to take the Bruins here at home, but I’m going with Washington State. Cam Ward and the Wazzu offense should bring more than enough firepower to hang in there on the road. PICK: Washington State
PH: Every time I’ve picked against Cameron Ward and the Cougars, it has burned me. Simple as that this week. PICK: Washington State
DP: Going against the grain in spots like this is what has gotten me in a hole this season, but I genuinely think it’s going to be tough sledding for just about everyone on the road in the Pac-12 this season. What happened in Corvallis last Friday is going to happen to the rest of the Pac-12’s elite at some point throughout the year. UCLA’s defense is legit and Chip Kelly gets an extra week to cook some things up for Dante Moore in a bounceback effort. PICK: UCLA
ES: I am done with trusting UCLA as I believe they’ve lost me a pair of picks this season already. Washington State, however, has been very kind to me. No analysis here, just give me the Cougars. PICK: Washington State
No. 11 Alabama (-1) at Texas A&M
SD: Rumors of a potential Jalen Milroe injury have been swirling this week, which has (presumably) caused this line to creep all the way down to Alabama –1. I’m counting on Milroe playing. If he does, this line could be back over a field goal by kickoff on Saturday. Even if Milroe is out, I think Alabama’s defense is good enough to keep this close to an even game. PICK: Alabama
PH: Texas A&M did not look fazed with Max Johnson replacing Connor Weigman at QB last week. However, that was against an Arkansas team that has a number of issues this season. Playing in College Station makes this one tougher, but I still like Saban and the Tide. PICK: Alabama
DP: This A&M team has the potential to be a chaotic force in the SEC divisional race this year. I’m also 0-for when picking Alabama games this year so I’m going against my gut. PICK: Alabama
ES: The Aggies have been a different team since Week 2 at Miami. I’m not sure I buy these Milroe rumors and assume he will play, but even still I’m just weirdly confident in Texas A&M at Kyle Field. I like A&M’s defensive line against Alabama’s shaky pass protection, and if the Aggies can get to Milroe and get him rattled I’m not sure they’ll be able to dance Saturday. Give me the Aggies. PICK: Texas A&M
Purdue at Iowa (-2.5)
SD: Cade McNamara is out for the season, but I’m not sure Iowa has hit rock bottom yet. Purdue is coming off its best game of the season and has already won in one tough environment so far this season (Virginia Tech). I think the Boilermakers win this one outright. PICK: Purdue
PH: Iowa lost Cade McNamara to a season-ending injury last week and Deacon Hill will make his first career start on Saturday. Purdue has shown it can score against a variety of opponents in Ryan Walters’ first season leading the program. This game is screaming for the Boilermakers to get a road upset in Kinnick. So I’m going with Iowa. PICK: Iowa
DP: Purdue beats a bad Illinois team and now it’s ready to win at Kinnick? I’m not so sure. PICK: Iowa
ES: Hudson Card is kind of balling out right now? I’m not sure I’m ready to say Purdue is competent or anything, but this seems to be one the Boilermakers win, right? Give me Walters and Co. Regardless. PICK: Purdue
Wake Forest at Clemson (-21)
SD: Remember last season when Clemson had to squeak out a 51-45 win on the road vs. Wake Forest? Yeah, that’s not happening this year. Neither offense has shown off much explosiveness so far this season and Clemson’s defense has been elite. Wake’s underlying numbers on defense aren’t awful, either. However, I just don’t trust Mitch Griffis in Death Valley and I think Clemson could be trying to prove a point after its slow start. PICK: Clemson
PH: Forget the struggles Clemson has had this season, Wake Forest just gave up 30 points at home to Georgia Tech. PICK: Clemson
DP: Wake Forest had 31 first downs to Georgia Tech’s 13 and lost 30-16. Tech also had 14 penalties for 142 yards and still managed to leave with a road win. That’s what happens when you lose the turnover battle 5-1. Out of a bye week, I don’t think Wake Forest will make it so easy on Clemson that the Tigers cover those 21 points. PICK: Wake Forest
ES: In Winston Salem, I could maybe entertain the idea that Wake Forest covers that line. I don’t think so though. The Tigers are not a bad football team this year despite not living up to expectations. Give me Clemson. PICK: Clemson
No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia (-14.5)
SD: Georgia has lulled the public into a false sense of security with its 0-5 start against the spread. Kentucky is also probably riding a little hot after what it did vs. Florida last week. The reality is that the Wildcats’ offense has not been good for the bulk of the season and UGA is still elite. PICK: Georgia
PH: I’ll take the bait in what is probably going to be Georgia’s wake-up game with a dominant home performance against a ranked program. But I genuinely like what Mark Stoops has done at Kentucky. PICK: Kentucky
DP: I’ll take Georgia to cover in a game that will look a little less interesting on the scoreboard than it actually was. PICK: Georgia
ES: Kentucky is still Kentucky. I’m just not sure I can get behind the Wildcats and a win over a bad Florida team just doesn’t move the needle for me. I get the Bulldogs are 0-5 against the spread, but that’s got to turn around at some point. I’m begrudgingly taking the Dawgs here. PICK: Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame (-6.5) at No. 25 Louisville
SD: Notre Dame gets its top 2 receivers back this week in Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse. Both were sorely missed last week against Duke — if they had been healthy, that game likely never goes down to the wire. Louisville’s offense really struggled against NC State last week and I think Notre Dame can pose some similar problems for the Cardinals. PICK: Notre Dame
PH: Louisville is well on track to go bowling in Jeff Brohm’s first season, and I can get talked into potentially 8 wins on the Cardinals’ schedule. However, none of the wins in a 5-0 start are really of any quality. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: If this number was 7.5, I might be taking Louisville. Where it is here, I’ll ride with Notre Dame after they burned me a week ago. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: I think this Notre Dame team is really, really good. As Spenser mentioned, Notre Dame being fully healthy on offense means Sam Hartan should be able to showcase some more of his talent in this one. I’ll take the Irish by a few touchdowns: PICK: Notre Dame
Arkansas at No. 16 Ole Miss (-11.5)
SD: It’s safe to say Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country (at least when it’s playing anyone other than Alabama). I’m not sure yet what Arkansas is good at. PICK: Ole Miss
PH: Ole Miss should win here, but 11.5 points feels a bit rich considering the nature of last week’s upset over LSU. PICK: Arkansas
DP: Rebs are rolling, with an average of 44.6 points a game in five outings — and that includes a 10-point stinker against Alabama. I don’t think this Arkansas team is anywhere good enough to score the points necessary to hang with Ole Miss. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: Ole Miss is just the considerably better team here. Tre Harris is one of my favorite receivers in the sport right now and the Rebels are firing on all cylinders. Give me Ole Miss by a few touchdowns. PICK: Ole Miss
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
