The Saturday Down South staff is back to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games each week. After an absolutely dynamite Week 1, the schedule for Week 2 doesn’t have as many heavy-hitters, but it does have plenty of intriguing games.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via BetMGM. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 2 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 2. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
2025 season records:
- Derek Peterson: 8-7
- Spenser Davis: 7-8
- Andy Olson: 7-8
- Ethan Stone: 6-9
- Adam Spencer: 4-11
James Madison at Louisville (-14)
Spenser Davis: I’m not scared off by Miller Moss’s two interceptions in Week 1. One pass was high and got tipped into the air. The other was dropped and then batted into the air for an EKU defender to snag on a Hail Mary before halftime. Besides those 2 picks, Moss averaged 9.3 yards per attempt and made 3 big-time throws, per PFF’s grading system. JMU was excellent on defense last season, but it ranks just 77th in defensive returning production, per ESPN. The Dukes also have a first-year defensive coordinator — I like this matchup for Moss and Jeff Brohm. PICK: Louisville
Andy Olson: I’m not crazy about laying 2 scores, but I managed to talk myself into a Cards cover. Louisville has the obvious talent advantage, and if Miller Moss performs as expected, Jeff Brohm’s team might be able to get the JMU offense out of its comfort zone as a road underdog. PICK: Louisville
Derek Peterson: Louisville absolutely smoked Eastern Kentucky. Per Game on Paper, the Cards had a plus-32% net success rate in the game and a plus-0.35 net EPA/per play. They only scored 51 points because they turned it over 3 times. Those 3 interceptions were the only passes Eastern Kentucky put a hand on all night. James Madison was lucky in the turnover department as well during its opener. Louisville hits enough big plays. PICK: Louisville
Adam Spencer: I expect a bounce-back game from Miller Moss in this one. He had only 1 touchdown pass and 2 picks against Eastern Kentucky. Yikes. He’s better than that. He’ll show it against JMU. PICK: Louisville
Ethan Stone: Both these offenses can run the football, but Louisville turned the ball over 3 times through the air against Eastern Kentucky. James Madison presents a legitimate step up in competition and picked off Weber State 3 times itself. The Cardinals have more talent, but I could see James Madison knocking on the door late in the fourth. PICK: James Madison
San Jose State at Texas (-36.5)
SD: This game is all about motivation. Does Texas get up for this game? Does Steve Sarkisian leave his offensive starters in the game for an extra series or two to get their confidence up? I tend to think so. In recent history, teams in Texas’s spot have covered big numbers like this quite often. Since 2018, teams who are favored by 28 or more in a nonconference game coming off a loss are 18-8-1 against the spread. PICK: Texas
AO: I think it’s absolutely a get-right game for Texas with strong performances on both sides of the ball. I just don’t like laying 36.5 points. Give me a 45-10 cover. PICK: San Jose State
DP: Texas outperformed Ohio State on the ground, but lost a defensive slugfest on the road because of a pair of empty red zone possessions. That was the difference. We can make fun of Arch Manning all day long, but it wasn’t an embarrassing performance. In Week 2, I expect Texas to let out some frustration and beat up on a San Jose State team that will struggle to handle Texas on the line of scrimmage. PICK: Texas
AS: As long as Arch Manning can avoid throwing the ball like Uncle Rico in this one, I think the Longhorns cruise. This is going to be a big day for Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter, too. And the defense, which just limited Jeremiah Smith for a second-straight game, won’t be facing anyone nearly that talented on the SJSU roster. PICK: Texas
ES: Arch Manning doesn’t have to face Caleb Downs and a simply terrifying Matt Patricia defense this week. The Buckeyes will make most quarterbacks in America look like Manning did in Week 1. San Jose State disappointed in Week 1 against Central Michigan and will be considerably outmanned this time around. The Longhorns could cover this in the first half. PICK: Texas
Illinois (-3) at Duke
SD: I’ve thought Illinois was overrated all offseason and I’m sticking with that opinion for this game. Illinois has a mostly new defensive line and is missing an NFL wide receiver in Pat Bryant, who now plays for the Broncos. I believe in Manny Diaz and Darian Mensah more than enough to take the points here. PICK: Duke
AO: This was a hard one to make a final call. Duke is having a Blue Out to add some juice to the atmosphere at Wallace Wade. But, it’s a noon kick, not a night game. Illinois is a veteran squad this year. I think Luke Altmyer will be ready for the road environment. The Illini secondary should slow down the Duke passing attack. PICK: Illinois
DP: This one stuck out to me right away. Darian Mensah threw for 389 yards and 3 touchdowns in his debut for Duke. Turnovers and missed field goals kept the 45-17 win over Elon from being even bigger. And that debut has made this game the pick for folks. Illinois has won 5 straight dating back to last season. Quarterback Luke Altmyer had an 89.7 QBR with 3 touchdowns and no turnovers in his debut and the talk afterward has been about cleaning up the pass game. I’m not sure I understand the Illinois disrespect. PICK: Illinois
AS: I’m high on the Illini this year, and not just because I’m an Illinois native. I think Bret Bielema has built something sustainable in Champaign, and I’m riding the Illini until they prove to me that I shouldn’t. Give me Illinois to cover in this one. PICK: Illinois
ES: I have the Illini in the College Football Playoff this year. I also watched the Blue Devils struggle to pull away from Elon until the Phoenix got out-coached and out-conditioned after the halftime break (game was tied at 10 after 2 quarters). I think Darian Mensah’s great and he’ll keep this from being entirely one-sided, but Illinois is way more dependable on defense. Illini by 10 or so. PICK: Illinois
Iowa at Iowa State (-3)
SD: I’m selling Iowa State stock. I think Rocco Becht has become a bit overrated given his performances so far this season. I think once he faces tougher defenses, Iowa State’s lack of NFL talent at wide receiver (when compared to 2024) will start to show up. Iowa State’s win over Kansas State has certainly lost some of its luster too after the Wildcats nearly lost to North Dakota last week. PICK: Iowa
AO: The road team has claimed the last 5 Cy-Hawk games. With that in mind, I like Iowa’s chances of keeping this close with a decent chance of pulling off the upset outright thanks to its defense. PICK: Iowa
DP: I have no clue what this Iowa State team is. I have even less of an idea what this Iowa team is. The Hawkeyes plucked a really good quarterback from the FCS ranks, brought him into Bizarro World, and got just 44 passing yards on 15 attempts in their opener. I’m not jumping to conclusions with that one until we see more. I don’t like that our number is 3, but I think I’ll ride with the Hawkeyes anyway. I’m not a big Rocco Becht guy and think this could be a rock fight. PICK: Iowa
AS: The early kickoff won’t have any impact on the crowd in Ames. They’ll just get up even earlier to start tailgating for this one. The Cyclones have a big win on their résumé already after taking down Kansas State in Ireland. The Hawkeyes haven’t been tested. The Cyclones will jump out to a first-half lead and there won’t be enough time left for Iowa’s methodical (that’s putting it nicely) offense to catch up. PICK: Iowa State
ES: Iowa hasn’t shown an ability to throw the football since the dark ages and Mark Gronowski totaled just 44 passing yards against the mighty Albany Great Danes. He chalked it up to first-game jitters after the fact. That’s fine, but now he has to travel to Ames to play in a big-time rivalry environment against a ranked opponent. I don’t see this one working out for the Hawkeyes. PICK: Iowa State
Oklahoma State at Oregon (-28.5)
SD: If Hauss Hejny was playing quarterback for Oklahoma State this week, I’d probably take the Cowboys. He looked great in his program debut in Week 1 before suffering a broken foot. It’ll be Zane Flores against the Ducks instead, and I’m significantly less enthused by that prospect. In the Dan Lanning era, the Ducks are 8-3 against the spread when favored by 20-plus against an FBS opponent. PICK: Oregon
AO: This week’s headlines have me thinking of the time Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks embarrassed the pants off Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes. Throwing a shot at Oregon before playing Lanning’s Ducks is a bold strategy, Cotton. Add in that Oklahoma State’s defensive coordinator is Todd Grantham, and I can’t pick the Pokes to cover. PICK: Oregon
DP: Mike Gundy went on the radio this week and could not stop talking about Oregon’s money. The OSU coach suggested Oregon should play out-of-conference games against teams with similar budgets. I can’t decide if he was trying to prepare the fanbase for a stomping or pressure his donor base to pony up. Either way, Dan Lanning — one of the best motivators in the sport right now — caught wind of the remarks and had some comments of his own for Gundy. These teams were already on totally different levels, but now the Ducks have a reason to run up the score. One more thing to consider: Since 2022, Oregon is 9-1 ATS when favored by at least 25 points and OSU is 4-8 ATS as a road dog. Ducks by fiddy. PICK: Oregon
AS: Alright, fine, I’ll save the graphic. I think Oregon wins by 4 touchdowns. The 28.5 number is scary to me. If it was Oregon –27.5, I’d ride (fly?) with the Ducks. But I just don’t want to take the chance on that hook. Give me the man, the myth, the legend Mike Gundy to cover the spread, just barely. PICK: Oklahoma State
ES: My initial thought when seeing this spread was, “ah, that’s a lot of points.” But it really might not be enough. Oklahoma State has no explosive qualities on offense, and the Ducks are one of the best teams in the sport at the line of scrimmage. Mike Gundy is still being a quite strange individual, and I don’t think that’ll work in OSU’s favor, either. PICK: Oregon
Ole Miss (-10) at Kentucky
SD: Zach Calzada might be really bad, guys. His program debut on Saturday against *checks notes* Toledo: 85 yards, 1 interception, 0 touchdowns on 23 pass attempts. I’m concerned this offense is dead on arrival. Mark Stoops’ defense wasn’t good in 2024, either. I think we might look back at this line in a few weeks and be in disbelief you only had to lay 10 points to take the Rebels. PICK: Ole Miss
AO: Toledo is a respectable Week 1 opponent, but I’m still pretty concerned about the Kentucky offense based off the season-opener. Lane Kiffin idolized Steve Spurrier and spent a few years learning from Nick Saban. My point being, Kiffin is going to enjoy getting revenge for last year. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: Ole Miss might have a run game now. Kentucky doesn’t appear to have a passing game. Lane Kiffin is a “run it up” coach and I think he does just that here. PICK: Ole Miss
AS: Credit Kentucky for beating a tough Toledo team in Week 1. But Ole Miss is a different beast. Yes, the Wildcats pulled off an absolute stunner against the Rebels last year, but that hurts them this year. Lane Kiffin and company have this one circled. Give me the Rebels to win by 3+ scores. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: Kentucky always plays Ole Miss well. The past 4 matchups between these programs were decided by 3 points or less, and Austin Simmons is traveling to play a Kentucky defense that is better than you’d think. Ole Miss wins, but I think the Wildcats continue the trend and keep this close. PICK: Kentucky
Kansas at Mizzou (-6.5)
SD: Missouri is the more talented team and is at home. Jalon Daniels has been great for the Jayhawks when healthy but I’m a believer in this Mizzou defense. I also trust Missouri’s offense to be competent — if not something a little better than that. I think Missouri will be able to limit Daniels as a passer and can win by a touchdown. PICK: Mizzou
AO: As an SEC guy, I’ve been fascinated learning about the Border War in the leadup to this game. It’s pretty clear that Eli Drinkwitz is really, really into this rivalry. I think Mizzou might give its best effort of the season. No knock on Jalon Daniels, but the Tigers have the better overall roster plus the home crowd. PICK: Mizzou
DP: I don’t think we know who either of these teams are yet. Kansas has played twice, but it got a completely rebuilt Fresno State team in a Week 0 setting and then played Wagner. Mizzou played Central Arkansas. I’ve liked pieces of what I’ve seen from both, but I don’t think either defense has been tested and both sides have explosive potential. I think it’ll be within a score. PICK: Kansas
AS: I’m disgusted by my colleagues who are picking Kansas. Truly disgusted. The Border War is back, baby! It’s been far too long, because the Jayhawks got their feelings hurt when big brother Missouri left for the SEC. The unit I trust the most in this game is the Missouri defense. There’s talent at all 3 levels. I think the Tigers force Jalon Daniels into a critical mistake late and a back-and-forth, intense rivalry game ends with the Tigers up by a touchdown or more. PICK: Mizzou
ES: This was the toughest on the list for me. Ultimately, I think the spread is a little too much. I’d be astounded if this is a one-sided affair. PICK: Kansas
South Florida at Florida (-17.5)
SD: South Florida is really not built to play from behind. Quarterback Byrum Brown is electric as a runner, but leaves quite a bit to be desired as a downfield passer. The against-the-spread winner will be decided early. If South Florida can hang around for a couple of quarters, I think it will cover. But I think Florida’s athletes are just a lot better. PICK: Florida
AO: I’ve seen this movie too many times. Florida will jump out to a 17-3 lead and then Billy Napier will get real conservative instead of putting the game out of reach by halftime. I expect UF to win by 10-13 in frustrating fashion. PICK: South Florida
DP: Off a huge, emotional upset victory at home in Week 1, this is the exact spot you’d fade a team in. South Florida still has questions in the pass game and Florida was surgical in Week 1. Gimme the Gators. PICK: Florida
AS: I don’t like the line. I agree with Ethan below (spoiler alert) that I wish the line was 16.5. But unlike Ethan (second spoiler alert), I’m taking USF to cover, just barely, in The Swamp. Even with the loss to the Gators, USF coach Alex Golesh will exit this game with more hype about him potentially taking over a Power 4 program. PICK: South Florida
ES: I see this as a classic case of a game that is close at the start with an uncompetitive second half. I do wish this line was –16.5, though. PICK: Florida
Arizona State (-7) at Mississippi State
SD: I can’t believe I get to fade Mississippi State again — and at a price this cheap. I don’t care that the Bulldogs are at home or that Arizona State struggled a bit with Northern Arizona last week. Kenny Dillingham over Jeff Lebby is one of the biggest coaching mismatches on the board this week. PICK: Arizona State
AO: Mississippi State had a miserable 2024, but I think that’s to be expected with the scheme changes and roster turnover of 3 head coaches in 3 seasons. The Bulldogs finally have some stability with Jeff Lebby. MSU is No. 24 on the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, ahead of Arizona State (No. 33). It’s a long trip for the Sun Devils into a sneaky tough SEC environment. PICK: Mississippi State
DP: When these 2 teams met in Tempe a year ago, the Sun Devils got 262 rushing yards from Cam Skattebo and won by just 7. Skattebo is gone, and ASU looked sloppy in its opener against Northern Arizona. The Sun Devils had 12 penalties, went 2-for-10 on third down, and averaged 2.6 yards per play on 44 non-explosive snaps. If Mississippi State can just avoid the coverage busts and keep Jordyn Tyson from breaking a couple of big ones, I think the Bulldogs have a shot to catch ASU here. PICK: Mississippi State
AS: Not so fast, my friend. That’s directed at you, Derek. Asking this Mississippi State defense to cover Tyson for 60 minutes is a tough task. I also think Leavitt will make a couple of big plays with his legs against a spotty Bulldogs’ run defense. Jeff Lebby’s squad plays well for 55 minutes, but a late touchdown by Tyson on a busted coverage gives the Sun Devils a 10-point road victory. PICK: Arizona State
ES: I really, really don’t think Arizona State is ready for the cowbells. This one was close last year in Tempe and a good chunk of Arizona State’s roster is back. This feels like a game the Devils will overlook. PICK: Mississippi State
Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5)
SD: Oklahoma’s top 4 running backs carried the ball 24 times for 67 yards against Illinois State last week. There are red flags, and then there’s whatever *that* is. I think the Wolverines have a good chance to win outright, let alone cover this 5.5 number. PICK: Michigan
AO: Michigan is a popular upset pick this week for obvious reasons. I think the Oklahoma defense carries the Sooners to a close victory, just not by a full touchdown. Bryce Underwood is still a true freshman tasked with playing his second game in an SEC stadium at night, so I don’t see Michigan winning outright, but the Wolverines can cover 5.5 points. PICK: Michigan
DP: We know John Mateer can beat up on lesser competition. We don’t know if John Mateer can do those same things against the kinds of athletes on the Michigan defense. This was the big question this offseason, wasn’t it? How would his game scale? I was concerned by what I saw from Oklahoma’s ground game against Illinois State. The Sooners can’t be one-dimensional against Michigan, or it won’t matter how well Mateer plays. I think we get a low-scoring affair between 2 teams that are still trying to figure things out on offense. PICK: Michigan
AS: I’m more inclined to play the under on this game, but since we have to make a pick against the spread, I’ll take the points with Michigan. I think Underwood will look like a true freshman at multiple points in this game, but I also expect the Wolverines to throw some stuff at Mateer that he’s never seen before. Whoever wins this game, it’ll likely be by a field goal or less. PICK: Michigan
ES: Oklahoma’s run game concerns me here. The Wolverines are still strong in the trenches, and the Sooners rushed for a ho-hum 3.2 yards per carry against Illinois State. At the same time, Mateer hasn’t faced a defense like Michigan… ever? Bryce Underwood faces the same issue, I know, but Justice Haynes will take a lot of pressure off the true freshman who looked like a veteran against New Mexico. PICK: Michigan
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
