The Saturday Down South staff returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games.
In Week 4, we have a ton of juicy matchups, so let’s just dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece come via BetMGM. Point spreads used for this piece were finalized at noon ET on Thursday and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 4 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 4. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
2025 season records:
- Andy Olson: 20-13-2
- Derek Peterson: 16-17-2
- Ethan Stone: 16-17-2
- Spenser Davis: 14-19-2
- Adam Spencer: 11-22-2
No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (-3.5)
Spenser Davis: Utah has rightly earned the reputation of being one of the toughest places to play in college football. However, a big part of that is the elevation of Salt Lake City. At nearly 4,200 feet above sea level, it’s a unique challenge for most of the major college football programs across the country. Not so for Texas Tech — Lubbock sits at over 3,200 feet above sea level, so I’d expect the effects of that elevation increase to be minimal compared to what we normally see. Beyond that, Texas Tech has been very impressive this season against lackluster competition. The same could be said for Utah, but I like getting 3.5 points here. PICK: Texas Tech
Andy Olson: Outright, I wouldn’t pick Utah to lose at Rice-Eccles, but that half point has swung me to go Texas Tech for the spread pick. I think the Red Raiders are strong enough on offense to stay within a field goal. The upset wouldn’t be a huge stunner. PICK: Texas Tech
Derek Peterson: Utah ranks third nationally in net EPA per play. Texas Tech is 19th. To an extent, I understand the argument from folks bothered by Utah’s ranking in the AP poll. But the Red Raiders ain’t played nobody either. Utah has at least gone on the road. Texas Tech hasn’t been tested, nor has it left home. And Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in all of college football. Give me the Utes. PICK: Utah
Adam Spencer: I’m in desperate need for a big week, so naturally we start off with one of the toughest games to pick of the whole weekend. Thanks, guys. I know Texas Tech hasn’t exactly played the toughest schedule, but are we really giving Utah that much credit for winning at UCLA? Seriously? The 5 could slot into the Utes’ starting offense and we’d have probably beaten UCLA this year. Give me Tech and the points. PICK: Texas Tech
Ethan Stone: I’m just astounded that College GameDay won’t be in Salt Lake for this one, because it has a chance to be the Game of the Week. The Utes have yet to allow a point in the 3rd quarter this season. Dampier is an early Heisman candidate and the Utes have averaged 290 rushing yards per game with just 2 sacks allowed. The competition is weak, but I trust that level of dominance can translate with homefield advantage. This could very well be decided by a field goal, sure, but I still trust my preseason Big 12 champion pick. PICK: Utah
Arkansas (-7) at Memphis
SD: This Arkansas offense is ridiculous. It ranks No. 2 nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. The Razorbacks are going to be one of the worst teams in the SEC this year, so I’m not sure they’re ever going to get the respect they deserve. But this is a must-win game if the Hogs want to go bowling this season and I think Sam Pittman will have them ready to play. PICK: Arkansas
AO: I was ready to be all “woo pig” and pick the Razorbacks to secure a multi-score win. Seeing SP+ project Memphis straight up, though, stopped me right in my tracks. Metrics aren’t the end all be all, but I have to go with the Memphis cover at home after seeing that. I still think the Hogs win the game. PICK: Memphis
DP: I like Memphis here. I think there are a couple of different pathways to a cover for the Tigers, who have had a strong start to the season on both sides of the football. A couple of giveaways from Arkansas could keep it tight. Memphis just simply taking advantage of a bad Arkansas defense can also see this through. PICK: Memphis
AS: This is one of those games where I’d much prefer to play the over. But I don’t think anyone on Memphis matches the talent of Taylen Green. Give me the Arkansas QB to ball out and lead the Hogs to a big road win and a narrow cover. PICK: Arkansas
ES: Memphis can really run the football, and it starts with Brendon Lewis at quarterback. They also get this one at home. Yes, Arkansas should win here, but the Tigers have enough offense to keep up in a shootout. When it’s a coin flip like that, I’ll always go with the points. PICK: Memphis
Syracuse at Clemson (-16.5)
SD: I take no joy in saying this, but I don’t think Syracuse is any good. The Orange can’t run the ball at all and they’ve been dreadful against the pass this season. This is exactly the type of team that Cade Klubnik destroyed in 2024. It’s all gone wrong for him this year, but I think Clemson wins this one going away. Since 2018, Clemson is 9-3-1 against the spread in games following a loss. PICK: Clemson
AO: I think Clemson notches a double-digit win to help quiet the criticism, but 17.5 is simply too much considering how the Tigers have looked so far this season. When a convincing 41-24 win doesn’t produce a cover, I just can’t lay the points. PICK: Syracuse
DP: Who leads the country in passing through the first 3 weeks of the season? That’s right, it’s a Syracuse quarterback. Again! Steve Angeli, the Notre Dame transfer, has 1,072 yards and 8 scores through his first 3 starts while completing 64% of his throws and averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. Why do I bring that up? If Clemson finally figures it out on offense (a big if, even against this secondary), Syracuse has the firepower to keep up. PICK: Syracuse
AS: If Ethan’s going to use slang like “crashing out,” I’m going to try to sound young, too. The “vibes” are off with Clemson this year. Cade Klubnik is not what he was expected to be. The defense might have 2 first-round picks on it, but 11 guys need to play well to be great on that side of the ball. That hasn’t happened yet this year. At home, the Tigers will probably win, but Syracuse can keep it within 17 points. PICK: Syracuse
ES: Dabo Swinney was straight up crashing out in front of reporters this week, and I’ve seen that Syracuse offense in action against Tennessee. It’s not bad at all. +16.5 is tantalizing. PICK: Syracuse
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (-34.5)
SD: When I see big spreads like this, I try to consider whether the favorite’s coach has a reason or a propensity to run up the score. To that end, Dan Lanning’s Oregon program is 4-0 against the spread when favored by 28 or more against an FBS opponent. I also don’t care as much about the key number of 35 given Lanning’s tendency to go for 2 early in games. Since the start of the 2022 season, Oregon has attempted 12 2-point conversions in the first half — more than double the next-closest team. PICK: Oregon
AO: It’s fitting that this game has a rivalry nickname we’re no longer supposed to use in an official capacity, because the words I’d use to describe Oregon State can’t be used here, either. Dan Lanning will have the Ducks ready. PICK: Oregon
DP: Oregon State’s head football coach got asked this week if he likes being a head football coach. Ducks. Next. PICK: Oregon
AS: In a rivalry game, they say to throw out the records and what you know about each team because anything can happen. I will not be throwing out the records in this one. There’s 1 very specific thing that is going to happen. Give me Oregon. PICK: Oregon
ES: I saw Oregon beat a Power 4 team by 66 in 3 quarters of play. This is a rivalry game and the Beavers have looked remarkably terrible so far this year. Oregon in the first half. PICK: Oregon
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (-7)
SD: I think Auburn is live to win outright in this spot. John Mateer is a high-variance quarterback, which is not necessarily a good thing if you’re looking to back a touchdown-favorite at home. OU’s running game is a mess, and I don’t think its corners have really been tested this season, which will change on Saturday against Auburn’s stout WR room. The initial injury reports this week have also not been good for OU, and it’s possible the Sooners will be down to their third-string center for this game. PICK: Auburn
AO: Until shown otherwise, I’m buying the hype surrounding John Mateer as a Heisman finalist and Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff. As far as the Jackson Arnold angle, I think the advantage is with an OU defense coached by Brent Venables and playing with the advantage of the home crowd. PICK: Oklahoma
DP: First, an acknowledgement: Hugh Freeze has been really good in this spot over the course of his career. As a road dog, Freeze-coached teams are 18-10 ATS. That includes a 9-7 ATS mark as an SEC head coach. That being said, I think this Oklahoma team is just better. The quarterback matchup is heavily skewed in favor of the Sooners. And OU has the home side advantage. This game has blowout potential. If the Sooners can limit the effectiveness of the Auburn run game, OU will create a couple of takeaways at home and run away from the Tigers. PICK: Oklahoma
AS: If Jackson Arnold couldn’t really get the passing game going against Baylor, I’m not sure how he’s going to do it against this Oklahoma secondary. Whatever the case, Auburn better take a lead into halftime, because when R Mason Thomas returns from his targeting suspension in the second half, watch out. PICK: Oklahoma
ES: I originally picked Oklahoma to win here, but after seeing the availability report that says Oklahoma will be without 3 offensive linemen, with 4 more listed questionable, I have some pause. Auburn’s defensive line is legit and while I have my questions regarding Arnold, there’s no denying how effective he’s been on the ground. I may be overthinking this, but give me Auburn: PICK: Auburn
Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (-12.5)
SD: Tulane was excellent in Week 3 against Duke, playing by far its best game of the season to date. I think this will be a different level of test for the Green Wave. I’m not at all scared off by the Austin Simmons injury, as Trinidad Chambliss looks like he could just as easily be the starter. I would play Ole Miss up to –13.5. PICK: Ole Miss
AO: I wouldn’t put Ole Miss on upset alert, but the Rebels could be in for a bit of a letdown shifting to a Group of 5 opponent after a couple of hard-fought SEC games. I like Jon Sumrall to have the Green Wave ready enough to keep this within 10. PICK: Tulane
DP: All aboard the Trinidad Chambliss hype train. Loved his debut, and I’m not turned off by the defensive performance in Week 3. Put Taylen Green on one of the SEC’s contenders and he wins the Heisman Trophy. PICK: Ole Miss
AS: For a guy who knows exactly what the spread is in each game, Lane Kiffin sure doesn’t like to, you know, cover it. Ole Miss wins by 9 or 10 points. Book it. PICK: Tulane
ES: Tulane has yet to steer me wrong, and Jake Retzlaff is looking as good as I imagined he would be with the Green Wave. I don’t think they win this one, but I definitely think they can keep it close. PICK: Tulane
No. 21 Michigan (-1.5) at Nebraska
SD: I like the Huskers to win outright here. I didn’t like what I saw from Bryce Underwood (or Michigan’s receivers) in his first real test against Oklahoma in Week 2. This will be another rowdy, hostile crowd for him to deal with. The Huskers’ pass defense has looked good so far, too. PICK: Nebraska
AO: For Bryce Underwood, this is a hell of an environment to not have your head coach with you on the sideline. What an opportunity for Matt Rhule to get a win over a recent national champion. The points feel like an added bonus when the Huskers look to have a very good chance of winning straight up. PICK: Nebraska
DP: I picked the Huskers as an outright victor in this spot for my Tuesday column, and I won’t back off that here. Nebraska has momentum. Michigan has a true freshman quarterback walking into a raucous road environment. PICK: Nebraska
AS: Sorry, fellas. This is a classic — and I mean classic — Nebraska letdown spot. PICK: Michigan
ES: Nebraska has the quarterback advantage, the Huskers are at home, and they get the points. This is a really, really easy pick for me. PICK: Nebraska
South Carolina at No. 23 Mizzou (-9.5)
SD: I think this South Carolina offense is terrible. Absolutely dreadful. With or without LaNorris Sellers. The Gamecocks are 80th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play this season, and even that, I think, is a little generous considering they were at 4.5 yards per play against an FCS team in Week 2. Mizzou is at home and looks like it has a really strong running game to go with an intriguing pass game. The Tigers might be the best defense South Carolina has faced all year, too. PICK: Mizzou
AO: I’d normally be reluctant to lay this many against an SEC opponent, but I can’t talk myself into a South Carolina cover based on what we’ve seen from these two teams. Eli Drinkwitz has this Mizzou squad firing on all cylinders right now. South Carolina is a mess on offense, and the issue is more Mike Shula than LaNorris Sellers. PICK: Mizzou
DP: Here’s where a line lock early in the week hurts us. The early spread in this matchup (13.5) signaled that South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers would be out. Coach Shane Beamer signaled the opposite early in the week and, as the days have gone on, Sellers has been trending in the right direction. If Sellers plays, South Carolina certainly has a chance. If he’s out, that chance is marginal. I’ll trust what I saw and err on the side of caution with an injured South Carolina passer operating an offense that didn’t look remotely good when he was healthy. Mizzou rolls. PICK: Mizzou
AS: As the resident Mizzou graduate here (have I ever mentioned that before?), this is a classic struggle game for the Tigers. I’m still picking Mizzou to win, but mark my words – something crazy will happen in the fourth quarter of this one. Look at last year, when multiple crazy somethings happened in the fourth quarter. Mizzou wins, but it’s going to be on a last-second double-doink field goal attempt bouncing through the uprights or something like that. PICK: South Carolina
ES: I think it might be over for the Gamecocks. It was fun believing they could be good while it lasted. That offense is just incredibly abysmal, and it’ll be even worse if Sellers is out. At the very least, I doubt he’ll be 100% – and even if he was 100%, I don’t think they’re in the same bracket as the Tigers right now. PICK: Mizzou
Florida at No. 4 Miami (-9.5)
SD: This game matters a lot to the coaches and staffers who are responsible for recruiting in the Sunshine State on both teams. I think Miami will not hesitate to run up the score if given the chance. If this gets out of hand, I don’t see the Gators having much fight. PICK: Miami
AO: Mario Cristobal might be college football’s biggest Gator hater behind Kirby Smart. Brian Kelly mercifully had LSU kill the clock instead of scoring another TD on UF last week. The Hurricanes won’t be so courteous if presented with a similar opportunity. As much as it pains me to say it, Miami owns Florida in the rivalry right now. I don’t see that changing Saturday night. PICK: Miami
DP: We’ve watched these teams play, right? We all saw what Florida looked like in Week 2, and then again in Week 3, right? We saw Miami blow the doors off the USF team that beat Florida in Gainesville, right? I don’t get this number. Sure, Florida probably isn’t as bad as the 5-turnover disaster we saw in Baton Rouge, but that result would have been much worse if LSU knew how to run the football. (Sorry, BK.) On the road again, the Gators get the life stomped out of the Billy Napier era by a Miami team that hits harder than Florida’s assistants. PICK: Miami
AS: I’m going to keep this simple. If this game was in The Swamp, maybe I’d pick Florida. Doubtful, but I’d be more inclined to pick the Gators to cover this spread than I am with the game in Miami. The Hurricanes win and cover. PICK: Miami
ES: I think this line was set to scare people away from betting Miami. To get into our heads. ‘What do you know that I don’t?’ sort of thing. I’m on to you, BetMGM. I don’t see a world where Miami doesn’t win this by 20-plus, barring catastrophic injury luck or perhaps an actual hurricane. PICK: Miami
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-6.5)
SD: I think Indiana’s offense is getting overrated based on what it’s done in the second half against bad teams when the outcome was no longer in doubt. I haven’t loved everything I’ve seen from this Illinois team this year, but there’s no debating Bret Bielema has been great in this spot throughout his tenure. Illinois is 18-10 against the spread as an underdog since 2021 (free tip: the under is 20-6-2 in those games). On the road, the ATS record is 12-4. PICK: Illinois
AO: I felt pretty good about Illinois contending for the CFP coming into the season, and don’t see the need to back off that stance yet. You know what to generally expect from a Bret Bielema team with strong defense and veteran QB play. Indiana, on the other hand, is a big unknown right now. I’m a bit surprised the Hoosiers are favored. PICK: Illinois
DP: We don’t know who either of these teams is yet. Indiana has played Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. Illinois has played Western Illinois, Duke, and Western Michigan. Toss out the Duke result, too. Duke outgained Illinois on a per-play basis, had a better success rate, produced more havoc, and lost by 26 because it lost four fumbles. That result said nothing but Illinois. And since I have no idea what to make of either, I’ll side with the team that has shown more of an ability on offense to create splash plays. That team also happens to be the home side with a coach who is 15-8 ATS as a home favorite since the start of 2022. PICK: Indiana
AS: Illinois is tough. Yeah, the Illini needed a couple of breaks at Duke to pull off the win, but that sort of thing builds character. I think the Illini are better because of those struggles. Give me Bret Bielema and company to take another step toward the Playoff with a road win. PICK: Illinois
ES: Like Derek said, I don’t know what to make of these teams. I think there’s a chance this is decided by one score, and I picked Illinois to reach the Playoff preseason, so I’ll stick with the Illini and the points. PICK: Illinois
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
