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Friedlander: If not Florida State or Clemson, who has the best shot at winning the ACC?
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CHARLOTTE, NC – The players, the coaches, the venues and even some of the teams change from year to year. But when it comes to the ACC’s preseason Football Kickoff media event, at least 2 things are always the same.
Everyone, regardless of how they finished the previous year, will be excited about their prospects for the coming season. And when voting for the league’s preseason poll is announced, Clemson or Florida State will be picked as the favorite to win the conference.
It’s happened each of the past 13 years. It’s going to happen again this year.
Guaranteed.
That’s usually an accurate indication of the ACC’s best team. Only once since 2011, when Pitt beat Wake Forest 3 seasons ago, did the Tigers or Seminoles not go on to win the title.
But it might not be the case this year.
While the traditional frontrunners are once again stocked with elite talent and come by their lofty rankings legitimately, both have more questions than usual to be answered.
For Florida State, the defending ACC champion, it’s the challenge of replacing all but 4 starters on each side of the ball – a group that includes the nation’s most important player in 2023, at least in the assessment of the College Football Playoff Committee: quarterback Jordan Travis.
For Clemson, it’s rebounding from a disappointing season in which it lost 4 times, finished tied for 6th in the conference and exposed coach Dabo Swinney to criticism for his stubborn avoidance of the transfer portal.
That uncertainty promises to make this year’s ACC race the most wide open in recent memory.
Of the potential contenders, these are the teams that stand the best chance at breaking the Florida State-Clemson logjam and earning the league’s automatic bid into the newly expanded 12-team Playoff:
Louisville
Unlike last year, the Cardinals won’t benefit from a soft schedule that avoids both Florida State and Clemson this year. Their 2 most difficult games this season – Sept. 28 at Notre Dame and Nov. 2 at Death Valley – are on the road. But they still have coach Jeff Brohm. And besides boasting 2 of the best defensive players in the ACC in edge rusher Ashton Gillotte and cornerback Quincy Riley, Brohm and his staff have reloaded by bringing in a nationally recognized transfer class led by 24-year-old, 7th-year quarterback Tyler Shough.
Miami
Could this finally be the year the Hurricanes live up to the hype and deliver their first championship since joining the ACC in 2004? It’s entirely possible, considering the heavyweight roster Mario Cristobal has put together for his 3rd season in Coral Gables. In addition to an impressive returning core, Cristobal and his staff bolstered their lineup by landing Cam Ward – the premier quarterback in the transfer portal from Washington State – and 1,100-yard rusher Damien Martinez from Oregon State. As long as Cristobal can remember to have his quarterback take a knee when the situation calls for it, Miami could very well be right there at the end.
NC State
The Wolfpack’s football history is clouded with even more frustration than that of Miami. It’s been 45 years since their most recent ACC title. But over the past 4 months, State’s men’s basketball team has ended its conference championship drought, the men’s and women’s teams both went to the Final Four and its baseball team advanced to the College World Series. Now that Dave Doeren has bulked up his offense to match elite-level defense with the additions of playmakers at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, the Wolfpack have a realistic shot of riding their school’s red wave all the way to Charlotte on Dec. 7.
Virginia Tech
The Hokies return 95% of their offensive production and 86% overall from a team that rebounded from a 1-3 start to fashion a 4-win improvement from the previous season. If that sounds familiar, it should. Florida State had a similar profile heading into 2023. All the elements are there, including a dynamic quarterback in Kyron Drones. Besides all that talent on both sides of the ball, Tech also has a favorable schedule that avoids Florida State and has Clemson coming to Lane Stadium. None of this is meant to imply that like last year’s Seminoles, the Hokies are set up for an unbeaten championship season.
SMU
The Mustangs could potentially be a sleeper in their debut season in the conference after winning 11 games and the American Athletic Conference championship last season. A lot will depend on how quickly they adjust to the upgraded competition. They stand a realistic chance of making a smooth transition given their abundance of returning talent and coach Rhett Lashlee’s familiarity with the ACC as the former offensive coordinator at Miami. With a schedule that includes 2 of the league’s weaker teams, Virginia and Stanford, and its toughest test against Florida State at home, it would be a mistake to undervalue SMU.
Preseason All-ACC picks
Offense
QB: Haynes King, Georgia Tech
RB: Omarion Hampton, UNC; Jaydn Ott, Cal
WR: KC Concepcion, NC State; Xavier Restrepo, Miami; Eric Singleton, Georgia Tech
TE: Oronde Gadsden II, Syracuse
All-Purpose: Bhayshul Tuten, Virginia Tech
C: Maurice Smith, FSU
OG: Michael Gonzalez, Louisville, Willie Lampkin, UNC
OT: Francis Mauigoa, Miami; Darius Washington, FSU
Offensive Player of the Year: Hampton
Defense
DE: Antwaun Powell-Ryland, Virginia Tech; Ashton Gillotte, Louisville
DT: Joshua Farmer, FSU, Zeek Biggers, Georgia Tech
LB: Barrett Carter, Clemson; Marlowe Wax, Syracuse; Francisco Mauigoa, Miami
CB: Aydan White, NC State; Quincy Riley, Louisville
S: Jonas Sanker, UVA; Donovan McMillon, Pittsburgh
Defensive Player of the Year: Carter
Special Teams
PK: Ryan Fitzgerald, FSU
P: Alex Mastromanno, FSU
Specialist: Brashard Smith, SMU
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
