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Friedlander: Is the ACC really a 1-bid league? Initial Playoff rankings suggest so
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Conventional wisdom says that the only Playoff poll that really matters is the final one that selects the field.
And for the most part, it’s true.
Just ask Florida State.
But as it pertains to this year’s expanded 12-team Playoff bracket, there’s more to the first set of rankings than just fodder for overreaction by talk show hosts and internet trolls.
They provide an early peek into the value committee members put on specific teams and conferences and how that might influence their decisions once the only poll that really matters finally does come out on Dec. 8.
So what did we learn from Tuesday’s ranking initial release?
For one thing, the committee holds brand name programs in general and the Big Ten and SEC specifically in higher regard than everyone else.
Exhibit A is Penn State.
The Nittany Lions somehow managed to sneak in at No. 6 while undefeated Big 12 leader BYU is 3 spots lower at No. 9 and Boise State, the top Group of 5 selection is No. 12 despite having 2 more top-25 wins than Penn State — and a 3-point loss at Oregon.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, checks in at No. 10 even with an ugly loss to Northern Illinois that would be an automatic disqualifier for an ACC team.
And, of course, Alabama is the highest-rated 2-loss team in the poll at No. 11.
Eight of the 12 teams in the first projected bracket are from the Big Ten or SEC.
The good news for the ACC is that no matter what happens, it won’t have to suffer the same indignity that it did a year ago when undefeated Florida State got leap-fogged by Alabama and Texas on Section Sunday and wound up on the outside looking in of the final 4-team Playoff.
Whoever wins the conference championship will get an automatic bid because there won’t be 2 Group of 5 conference champions with a better ranking. The ACC champ also will earn an opening round bye as long as it finishes higher in the rankings than the top Group of 5 entry.
With Miami starting at No. 4, that’s all but guaranteed as long the Hurricanes can continue to buck their history of stumbles and win out. But if that happens, it’s almost certain they’ll be the ACC’s only Playoff team.
That’s because SMU is already the first team out at No. 13. Even with SEC and Big Ten teams cannibalizing each other – starting Saturday when No. 3 Georgia and No. 16 Ole Miss face off and No. 11 Alabama plays No. 15 LSU – there’s zero chance of the Mustangs jumping any higher than they already are with a second loss on their resume.
First set of in-season CFP rankings — in projected bracket form. pic.twitter.com/r2yxFfXYmB
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) November 6, 2024
Never mind that Rhett Lashlee’s team owns a pair of Top-25 wins (No. 18 Pitt and No. 22 Louisville) and that its only loss came by a field goal against No. 9 BYU. In a game before Kevin Jennings took over at quarterback and ignited its offense.
Or that its strength of record at No. 13 nationally is better than Boise State’s at No. 16.
It’s true that the Mustangs should have lost to Duke 2 weeks ago before overcoming 6 turnovers to win after the Blue Devils failed on a 2-point conversion in overtime.
Last time I checked, though, style points aren’t supposed to matter.
Only wins.
Apparently SMU isn’t enough of a brand name to escape the eye test. And the ACC’s other ranked teams, Pitt, Louisville and No. 23 Clemson, are all ranked too low to factor into the at-large conversation and need too much help just to get into the conference championship game. Let alone win it.
The only way the ACC gets 2 teams in the Playoff is if an 11-1 Mustangs team beats a 12-0 Miami in Charlotte on Dec. 7.
The cost of that scenario could very likely be the loss of a first-round bye.
There’s one other factor to consider regarding the ACC. It’s the Jordan Travis factor. Specifically, what happens to Miami if somehow Cam Ward is injured, but his team still hangs on to win the conference title?
Playoff committee chair Warde Manuel was asked about such a possibility in a question-and-answer session with the media shortly after Tuesday’s rankings were announced.
“We don’t look at it in terms of penalizing teams,” the Michigan athletic director said. “We look at performance. If the performance is there, the performance is there. It has nothing to do with whether or not an injury is disclosed or a key player is out.”
Just in case, Mario Cristobal would be smart not to rule his star quarterback out for the Playoff in the event of an injury. Listing Travis as day-to-day, even though he actually wasn’t, might have kept Florida State from getting knocked out of the bracket last year.
But even then, the Hurricanes’ fate would be in the hands of the committee. Which is never a good thing.
Unless, of course, you happen to play in either the SEC or Big Ten.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
