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Friedlander: Predicting every game of the 12-team College Football Playoff
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College football’s national championship will be decided on the field, not in a committee room. So no more talk about eye tests, head-to-head results, conference biases or strength of schedules.
If the regular season is any indication, the inaugural 12-team Playoff will be anything but predictable.
Which makes predicting the games even more of a challenge than usual.
So here goes: My official picks for every game of the CFP.
(All betting lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.)
First round
12 Clemson (+11) at 5 Texas
Give Dabo Swinney’s Tigers credit. It took a lot of help for them to get into the ACC Championship Game. But once they got there, they took advantage of their opportunity, held off a late SMU comeback and did what they had to do to get into the Playoff for the 7th time. Now they get a chance to take down another team from the Lone Star State. Only this assignment is much more of a challenger. Not only will they be playing on the Longhorns’ home turf, but they’ll be facing a team whose only 2 losses this season are to Georgia. The same Georgia team that dominated Clemson 31-3 in the opening game of the season.
The Tigers bookended that loss with a defeat at the hands of the other SEC opponent it faced – rival South Carolina – in the regular season finale. But the Longhorns’ offense has stagnated of late. They’ve scored 20 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games and managed only 31 rushing yards against the Bulldogs in the SEC title game. If Clemson’s defense can force Texas to be 1-dimensional and put pressure on Quinn Ewers, who was intercepted twice on Saturday, it can make things interesting. Especially if its own quarterback, Texas native Cade Klubnik, can duplicate the 4-touchdown performance he had against SMU. Interesting. But not interesting enough to advance.
Winner: Texas 27, Clemson 10.
9 Tennessee (+7) at 8 Ohio State
This promises to be the best of the 4 opening-round matchups. While both teams feature explosive offenses that average better than 35 points per game, it’s the defenses – both of which are ranked among the top 5 in the nation – that will likely determine which team earns a quarterfinal date against top-seeded Oregon. The Buckeyes lead the nation at just 10.9 points allowed per game. But they’ll have their hands full trying to corral Tennessee’s record-breaking Dylan Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher. The Volunteers’ focus will be on limiting the effectiveness of quarterback Will Howard and his stable of talented receivers.
Look for Tennessee to come out with an aggressive game plan designed to keep the pressure on embattled Ohio State coach Ryan Day and a Buckeyes team that could still be reeling from its surprising loss to Michigan that kept it out of the Big Ten Championship Game and cost it an opening-round bye. As Kirk Herbstreit said, things could get ugly at the Horseshoe if the home team falls behind early.
Winner: Tennessee 24, Ohio State 21
11 SMU (+8) at 6 Penn State
Like the Hoosiers, the Mustangs also have a lot to prove. And like Indiana, the odds – not to mention the weather and the atmosphere at Beaver Stadium – will be against them. But despite being the last team into the bracket, they were given a much more favorable draw. In a lot of ways, Penn State is to the Big Ten what Miami is to the ACC. It’s a team that starts every season with high expectations only to fall short of them because it can never figure out how to win in big spots. This year’s team did manage to make it to the conference championship game. But after losing to Oregon on Saturday, coach James Franklin is now 1-14 against top-5 opponents and 3-19 against the top 10.
SMU doesn’t quite fall into that category. But that’s OK. Franklin’s record against the Top 25 is 13-28 and the Mustangs are seeded 11th. They also have a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Kevin Jennings and a strong rushing attack that will travel even in the worst winter conditions. That, combined with the Nittany Lions’ history, will help SMU validate the committee’s decision and pull off the upset.
Winner: SMU 27, Penn State 24
10 Indiana (+7.5) at 7 Notre Dame
For all the heat that SMU is taking for edging Alabama out of the final at-large spot, Indiana is the team that comes into the Playoff with the most questionable resume. This is the Hoosiers’ chance to show they belong. Curt Cignetti’s 11-1 team didn’t fare well in its first big test against a high-level opponent, losing a shot at the Big Ten Championship Game in a 38-15 loss to Ohio State on Nov. 23. Indiana managed only 105 yards of total offense in that game and could have an equally difficult time moving the ball against a Notre Dame team that ranks No. 3 nationally in scoring defense and 9th in total defense.
Even though these schools are located in the same state and are only about 200 miles apart, they’re anything but familiar opponents. They’ve only met once since 1958. That was in 1991 with the Irish winning 49-27 for their 20th win in the past 21 games against the Hoosiers. This one won’t be much different.
Winner: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 17
Quarterfinals
Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State
The Sun Devils won the Big 12 championship by routing Iowa State 45-19 to complete an amazing rise after being picked to finish last in the conference. They enter the Playoff on a heater, having won 6 straight, with do-it-all running back Cam Skattebo leading the way. Not only has the 5-11, 215-pound bundle of energy run for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 6 yards per carry, he’s also 2nd on the team with 37 receptions for another 306 yards and 3 scores. Good luck stopping him, Longhorns.
Winner: Arizona State 27, Texas 21
Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon
The Volunteers are the best team to come out of the opening round, but they’ve drawn the unfortunate task of drawing the top overall seed in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks are the nation’s only remaining undefeated team, but it’s not as if they’ve been dominant. They needed 2 kick returns for TDs and a last-second field goal to beat Boise State, only scraped by Ohio State by a point, survived a scare from 5-7 Wisconsin and had trouble finishing Penn State in Saturday’s Big Ten title game. But each time, Dan Lanning’s team found a way to win. This will be a struggle, too. With a familiar result.
Winner: Oregon 33, Tennessee 31
SMU vs. No. 3 Boise State
The Broncos would have had a major advantage if they were playing this game at home on the blue turf in frigid Idaho conditions. But weather won’t be a factor indoors at the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona. That should make for an entertaining, high-scoring shootout between the nation’s leading rusher – Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty of Boise State – and a diverse Mustangs’ attack that averages 38 points and 443 yards per game. The Broncos might be a Group of 5 team, but they’re no fluke.
Winner: Boise State 43, SMU 34
Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia
Forget Northern Illinois. That’s ancient history. The Irish are big and physical and have improved steadily as the season has progressed. They average just under 40 points per game while holding the opposition to just under 14. Georgia, on the other hand, has played with fire in each of its 2 most recent games. But despite getting extended to 8 overtimes by rival Georgia Tech and surviving another close call to beat Texas for the SEC title, the Dawgs have yet to get burned. As long as quarterback Carson Beck is healthy enough to be productive, Georgia’s talent and championship experience will be enough to pull it through.
Winner: Georgia 28, Notre Dame 24
Semifinals
Arizona State vs. Oregon
The Sun Devils’ joyride comes to an end as the Ducks advance to the national championship game for the first time since 2014.
Winner: Oregon 43, Arizona State 28
Georgia vs. Boise State
Jeanty and the Broncos meet a similar fate as Skattebo and the Sun Devils. Another blowout semifinal.
Winner: Georgia 37, Boise State 14
National Championship
Georgia vs. Oregon
Oregon coach Dan Lanning learned under Kirby Smart — and lost Round 1 when Georgia pounded the Ducks in the 2022 season-opener, which was Lanning’s head coaching debut. Lanning has come a long way since that 49-3 drubbing. In fact, his 35-5 record through 3 years is better than Smart’s was (32-10).
Oregon’s offense is loaded, led by record-breaking Dillon Gabriel. They’re undefeated for a reason and they’ll have too much firepower for the Bulldogs. Even on UGA’s home turf.
National champion: Oregon 27, Georgia 20
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
