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Friedlander: The ACC is a 2-bid Playoff league, for now, but it has a lot of work to do to stay that way
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CBS Sports analyst Jon Rothstein didn’t make any friends around the ACC last spring when he took to social media to suggest that the conference might only be worthy of 2 bids to the NCAA basketball tournament.
Funny how things change with the seasons.
Because now that we’re heading toward the home stretch of the college football schedule, the ACC would give its left coast to be a 2-bid league.
As things stand now, that’s a realistic possibility. Miami, at No. 6 in the latest Associated Press Top 25, and No. 9 Clemson would both safely be into the expanded 12-team field in the season ended today.
But there’s still a long way to go and plenty of potential hurdles to clear before even the first official Playoff committee rankings come out in 2 weeks. Let alone the only poll that matters. The one that’s announced on Selection Sunday, Dec. 8.
If there’s one thing the ACC has going in its favor, it’s that the Hurricanes and Tigers don’t play each other during the regular season. That gives each a clear path to run the table and maintain their current positions until meeting on Dec. 7 in Charlotte in a top-10 conference championship game showdown.
That scheduling advantage could quickly flip and become a major disadvantage, however, if one or both teams suffer an upset along the way.
This isn’t the SEC, where pretty much any conference loss is portrayed as a “good” loss.
With Clemson having suffered 1 loss – albeit to No. 2 Georgia – and Miami already struggling to stay undefeated against a cream-filled schedule put together by Entenmann’s, 1 loss could be all it would take to put either of their fates into the hands of the selection committee.
And we don’t have to ask Mike Norvell how that’s likely to turn out.
Unless the Group of 5 representative is placed among the top 12 of the final poll, a team will have to be rated 11th or higher to get into the Playoff field.
While it’s still a realistic possibility for a 3-loss Virginia Tech or another outlier such as Duke or Syracuse to sneak into the ACC championship game, pull off an upset and steal a Playoff bid, that would all but eliminate the possibility of a 2nd ACC team getting into the bracket.
No. 19 Pitt and No. 22 SMU are the only other ACC teams in this week’s rankings. And both would have to climb over a lot of teams just to get within hailing distance of the top 11.
That means virtually every game on the schedule from here on out will have Playoff implications.
Especially those involving Miami.
Given the way the Hurricanes have been teetering on the tightrope over the past 3 games, it feels as though it’s only a matter of time before they eventually lose their balance and fall.
It probably won’t happen this week against Florida State, in what would have been considered their toughest remaining test just 9 weeks. There’s a reason FanDuel sportsbook has established the Hurricanes as a 20.5-point favorite.
Stranger things have happened.
Especially in a rivalry game where one of the teams is coached by Mario Cristobal.
But it’s hard to imagine the self-destructive 1-6 Seminoles, who couldn’t beat an opponent only marginally trying to score last week, finding a way to put enough points to take down Cam Ward and an offense averaging 48 points per game.
Or even keeping things close enough for Miami to need another favorable review to squeak by.
That won’t be the case when the Hurricanes travel to Georgia Tech in 2 weeks for a rematch of last year’s infamous Kneelgate game. Or if they survive that, another dangerous road encounter at Syracuse against a Kyle McCord-led offense that can legitimately match Ward and Co. touchdown-for-touchdown.
Clemson’s road to Charlotte is equally as treacherous.
After this week’s open date, the Tigers will face back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech, which might be playing the best of any team in the ACC right now, and Pitt, a place where the Tigers’ championship hopes went to die the last time they played there in 2021.
That Pitt-Clemson game on Nov. 16 could turn out to be the ACC’s most important of the season. But only if the 6-0 Panthers stay unbeaten between now and Week 12.
First, though, they’ll have to negotiate their way through a gauntlet that begins on Thursday against Syracuse. And continues next week at SMU.
The matchup with the Mustangs is especially intriguing because it will effectively eliminate one of the ACC’s fringe contenders. It might not be the kind of game that attracts national attention or brings College GameDay to town.
But will help provide a clearer picture of whether Jon Rothstein got it right.
Just about the wrong sport.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
