After 8 consecutive losses in this series, Tennessee is once again an underdog to Georgia as it looks for its first win in this series in nearly a decade.
The Vols haven’t won a home game in the Tennessee vs. Georgia rivalry since 2015. UGA’s last 8 wins in this series have all come by double-digits, including last year’s 14-point win in Athens.
Georgia vs. Tennessee spread
Here’s what the updated betting odds look like for this game:
Georgia fact sheet
- Georgia has won 8 straight games in this series with each of those victories coming by double digits.
- This will be Georgia’s first real test of the season so far. The Bulldogs faced Marshall in Week 1 and Austin Peay in Week 2.
- Gunner Stockton has put up decent numbers through his first 2 starts, but Georgia’s offense is looking more like it did in 2024 than in 2023. The Bulldogs have created very little in the way of explosive plays through the air (zero 20+ yard pass plays vs. Austin Peay in Week 2).
- UGA’s run game has been efficient, but not ruthlessly so. Nate Frazier leads the team in carries, but he also had a fumble last week — a continuation of an issue he’s had dating back to high school.
- Georgia’s offensive line has been banged up to start the year. Starters Juan Gaston and Earnest Greene were both held out of the Austin Peay game. On the official SEC availability report on Thursday night, Gaston is listed as questionable while Greene is probable.
- Given the level of competition Georgia has faced so far, it’s difficult to have too many takeaways on either side of the ball, but especially on defense.
- Georgia has rotated heavily on that side of the ball through 2 weeks. According to PFF, 23 different Georgia players have registered at least 25 snaps so far. Only 7 players have more than 50 snaps.
Tennessee fact sheet
- Historically, Georgia’s defense has held up well against Tennessee’s Josh Heupel-led offense. In 4 games against the Bulldogs, Heupel’s offense has averaged just 4.43 yards per play. For context, against all SEC opponents over this same span, Tennessee has averaged 6.4 yards per play.
- The Vols seem to be recovering well from Nico Iamaleava’s stunning offseason departure. Joey Aguilar is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and owns a 5-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio.
- Tennessee blew out Syracuse in Week 1, which looked like an impressive result at the time. However, the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2 — suggesting they may not be nearly as strong as they were a year ago when they won 10 games.
- DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas have been excellent in place of last year’s (unofficial) team MVP, Dylan Sampson. Both have positive EPA numbers and success rates of at least 50%, per Game on Paper.
- Coming into the year, Tennessee’s defense was expected to be the top unit on this team. But through 2 games, the Vols haven’t been great on that end. They’re 89th nationally defensive success rate and 87th in EPA per play defense, according to Game on Paper.
- Tennessee also isn’t fully healthy on defense. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported earlier in the week that star cornerback Jermod McCoy (ACL recovery) and Rickey Gibson (undisclosed) are both set to miss this game against UGA.
- Tennessee will roll with transfer cornerback Colton Hood and true freshman Ty Remond this week. Both Hood and Redmond have graded out very well on PFF to start the year. Hood has allowed 1 reception on 7 targets. Redmond has conceded 4 receptions on 11 targets.
Georgia vs. Tennessee predictions
I’m fading both of these offenses in this matchup. Heupel’s system has historically been absolutely dreadful against Smart, as I covered above. Joey Aguilar has looked good so far, but this will be a different kind of test. As for Georgia, it doesn’t seem like things are any better this season under Mike Bobo’s watch. Explosive plays have been few and far between even against lackluster opposition. Tennessee is really thin at cornerback but I think the rest of the defense will be stout.
Pick: Under 49.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Tennessee’s offense has generally been most effective early in games against Georgia over the course of the last 4 meetings between Heupel and Smart. In the second halves of those games, Tennessee has generated an average of 3.9 yards per play and scored a total of 14 points. It’s worth noting these games have largely been decided by the time the fourth quarter rolls around and Tennessee still hasn’t managed to accomplish much. Even if Tennessee has a lead going into the fourth quarter — something I definitely think is possible — it will probably be playing pretty conservatively.
Pick: Tennessee under 10.5 points in the second half (-120 at DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
