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Which team will get the chance to eat a giant animated Pop-Tart? Whose coach could potentially get a vat of watered-down mayonnaise dumped over his head? Who will brave freezing temperatures to play football in a famous baseball stadium?
And who’s going to be staying home for the holidays, watching it all from their living rooms?
They’re questions that will be answered over the final 5 weeks of the ACC regular season as teams outside the conference championship conversation chase their own goal of bowl eligibility.
With 6 wins being the magic number.
Five league teams – Miami, Clemson, Pitt, SMU and Duke – are already there and are guaranteed participation in the postseason. Only 1, surprisingly preseason league favorite Florida State, has been mathematically eliminated.
That leaves everyone else to scramble in search of the wins still needed to qualify for selection to one of the ACC’s 11 official bowl affiliations.
In this week's bowl tracker we start trying to figure out who's going to make it to the postseason, with a special look at Georgia Tech's remaining schedule:https://t.co/50AZWFbTku pic.twitter.com/y0DICS6ZwA
— Hokie Mark (@mark_hokie) October 14, 2024
Here’s a look at what those have left, what they need to do and what their chances are of reaching the magic 6-win threshold:
Start making those reservations
Virginia Tech: The Hokies aren’t spending much time worrying about the 1 remaining win they need to reach bowl eligibility. Despite being only 5-3 overall after a pair of early nonconference losses, Brent Pry’s team still has its sights on the loftier goal of a top-2 finish and a trip to the ACC Championship Game.
It’s a long shot thanks to that controversial finish at Miami a few weeks ago. But with a team that’s finally playing up to its preseason expectations, only 1 conference loss on its record and an upcoming date against No. 11 Clemson – in Blacksburg – a title shot could still potentially be on the table.
The rest of their remaining schedule is manageable with road games at Syracuse and Duke and a home finale against in-state rival Virginia. Regardless of how the standings shake out, the Hokies are a lock to make their second bowl appearance in Pry’s 3 seasons.
Louisville: Last year’s conference runner-up is in good shape, too, even though its road to a 6th win could be bumpier. Starting with a trip to Clemson on Saturday. It also has games against undefeated, 18th-ranked Pitt and rival Kentucky, which it hasn’t beaten since 2017.
But even in the worst-case scenario, coach Jeff Brohm has an ace in the hole with a trip to ACC bottom-feeder Stanford following an open date on Nov. 16.
Syracuse: Like Virginia Tech and Louisville, the Orange need just 1 more win to gain bowl eligibility in Year 1 under coach Fran Brown. They still have winnable games against Boston College, Cal and UConn before finishing the regular season at No. 5 Miami.
Cautiously optimistic
North Carolina, NC State: Neither Triangle rival figured to be heading down the home stretch still sweating out bowl eligibility.
But here they are, with both still needing 2 wins in their final 4 games to get to 6.
Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack have been in this position before, winning their final 5 games last season to salvage what was rapidly becoming a lost season. They took a step in the right direction with a come-from-behind win at Cal 2 weeks ago. After a week off to prepare, they’ll take on Stanford and Duke at home before closing out the schedule on the road at Georgia Tech and UNC.
That finale in Chapel Hill on Thanksgiving Saturday could turn out to be the determining factor in which rival goes bowling and which simply gets bowled over.
A lot depends on whether Mack Brown’s Tar Heels can build on last week’s dominating win at Virginia or if it falls back into the bad habits that produced the 4-game losing streak it broke. UNC is favored at Florida State this week and will likely be favored at home against Wake Forest following its second open date before finishing things off with tossup games at Boston College and against NC State.
Could go either way
Boston College, Cal, Wake Forest and Virginia: Like the Wolfpack and Tar Heels, these 4 are all sitting on 4 wins with 4 left to play.
Of that group, the Bears figure to have the best odds of making it to 6.
Even though they have yet to win an ACC game, their 4 league losses have come by a combined total of 9 points. If not for missed field goals in the final 2 minutes against Pitt and NC State, they’d already be bowl eligible.
Justin Wilcox’s team finally got back into the win column with a 44-7 blowout of former Pac-12 rival Oregon State last week and has a favorable remaining schedule with road games at Wake Forest and SMU sandwiched around home dates with Syracuse and The Big Game against Stanford.
BC could have made its task a lot easier by holding onto a 20-point lead against Louisville last Friday. Because it didn’t, it now has to find 2 more wins from a closing stretch consisting of Syracuse, SMU, UNC and Pitt.
Wake Forest’s postseason hopes hinge on games against Cal, at UNC and Miami and at Duke while Virginia’s task is even more daunting. Adding to the pressure of having to face Pitt, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia Tech – with 3 of the 4 on the road – is the reality that the Cavaliers could be playing for coach Tony Elliott’s job.
Not just bowl eligibility.
And then there’s Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets look to be in good shape at 5-4. But there are no gimmes left for them with Miami, NC State and Georgia left to play. Especially because starting quarterback Haynes King’s status is still uncertain.
So you’re saying there’s a chance
Stanford: Mathematically, yes. Realistically, it might take more than just a band-on-the-field miracle for Stanford to climb its way out of a 2-6 hole to reach the 6-win mark.
Their APR score is tied for 20th, too, meaning they’d need a lot of help to qualify as a 5-7 team.
Bottom line: Unless the Cardinal run the table against NC State on Saturday – in a game that starts at 9 am Pacific Time – Louisville, Cal and San Jose State, the only bowling they’ll be doing this year is at their local alley with 10 pins and a 15-pound ball.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
