Here’s what prediction markets are saying about the College Football Playoff bubble
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The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season will be revealed on Tuesday night.
But hours before those rankings are released, prediction markets like Kalshi can give us a clue about which teams are in good standing ahead of the rankings release. Kalshi users are able to put money on predictions on everything from sporting events to politics, and the list of markets includes which teams will ultimately make this year’s College Football Playoff.
College Football Playoff predictions
A quick note on Kalshi for those who are unfamiliar. Kalshi is a predictions market that’s legal in all 50 US states. Users purchase contracts for a particular market and are paid out at a rate of $1 per contract for a correct prediction.
Let’s break down what Kalshi’s Playoff marketplace currently looks like as of Tuesday afternoon.
Locks
Per Kalshi’s market, there are 8 “locks” to make the field. Here’s how I’m defining a lock: a team that either has a 90% likelihood to make the Playoff (as of this writing) or doesn’t have a market at all.
Here are the teams who currently meet that criteria, in no particular order: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana.
Strong likelihoods
There are only a couple of teams who fit into this category. One is Alabama, who missed the “lock” cut-off by a decent margin. The Crimson Tide are priced at 82 cents per contract on Kalshi as of publication, but that could rise to 90 cents at any point.
Another team in this category is Notre Dame, who is is priced at 80 cents per contract as of this writing. The Fighting Irish have consistently been ranked ahead of Alabama since the Tide’s loss to Oklahoma, but they have a head-to-head loss against Miami, who is currently outside the CFP picture. That loss to the Canes could end up as a sticking point for the committee before all is said and done.
The final conference champions spots
So far, 10 teams have been named as “locks” or “strong likelihoods” to make the CFP. Now let’s get into the bubble. There are 2 spots left, with both set to be awarded to conference champions.
Let’s start with the American Athletic Conference. The winner of the AAC title game is almost a lock to get into the 12-team field. North Texas and Tulane will play for that honor on Friday night. On Kalshi, North Texas is the favorite. The Mean Green to make the CFP is trading at 58 cents per contract while Tulane is 41 cents per contract. Those numbers nearly mirror the overall AAC Championship Game market, which is also available for Kalshi users:
It gets complicated when considering the final spot because Duke made the ACC Championship Game despite having a 7-5 record. Virginia is the favorite to beat Duke and make the Playoff. On Kalshi, Virginia is trading at 63 cents to make the CFP.
However, if Duke were to win the ACC title game, the Blue Devils are unlikely to be the next highest-ranked conference champion. Duke is priced at just 9 cents per contract to reach the CFP — regardless of the result against Virginia this weekend.
If Duke does win, James Madison is likely to be in position to reach the CFP as one of the 5 highest-ranked conference champs. The Dukes are priced at 41 cents to make the Playoff ahead of their Sun Belt title game against Troy on Saturday. If you go by point spread, JMU is by far the biggest favorite of conference championship weekend.
Longshots
While this year’s 12-team Playoff field is very likely to be made up of some combination of the teams mentioned above, hope remains for a few other programs. Texas closed the season strong at 9-3 with a win over Texas A&M. Vanderbilt blasted Tennessee in Knoxville on Saturday to finish at 10-2. Miami also won over Pittsburgh in blowout fashion on Saturday, further strengthening its case.
But the odds don’t currently favor any of the teams. Of those programs, Miami has by far the best chance on Kalshi as the Canes are trading at 20 cents per contract to make the CFP. That still makes the Canes a significant underdog heading into Tuesday night’s CFP rankings.
Will there be a bid-stealer?
There’s one scenario we haven’t discussed yet. BYU will likely enter conference championship weekend ranked No. 11 in the CFP rankings. The Cougars will meet No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game this weekend. If BYU wins that game, there are scenarios where 2 Big 12 teams make the CFP.
If that does happen, it would have a significant impact on the odds of a team like Alabama — especially if the Crimson Tide were to lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. It’s worth checking to see who is in the No. 10 spot for the selection committee on Tuesday night, because that team could be on the chopping block if BYU pulls off the upset against the Red Raiders. The No. 9 team — perhaps Notre Dame — could also be in trouble should Alabama beat the Bulldogs to capture the SEC title.
Here’s a live look at the Kalshi market for CFP qualifiers:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
