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Jaxson Dart was trending in the Heisman Trophy discussion.
Emphasis on was. The Ole Miss quarterback completed 18 of his 27 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown on Saturday against Kentucky, but the Rebels hooked a field goal with less than a minute remaining to lose at home, 20-17. In the immediate aftermath of the loss, Dart’s Heisman odds dipped from +550 to +1300 at ESPN Bet.
(At the time of publication, he was priced at +1100.)
Dart entered Week 5 as the nation’s leader in passing yardage (1,554). He was also the national leader in yards per pass attempt (13.1) and had produced 15 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions. Ole Miss hadn’t yet played a defense with a pulse, but the Rebels were rolling over teams.
The loss to Kentucky dropped Ole Miss from +1300 to +1800 to win the national championship, but we’ve seen in recent years that being in the title discussion isn’t a prerequisite to being in the Heisman race. Caleb Williams won it in 2022 despite his team failing to make the College Football Playoff. Jayden Daniels won it last season for a 3-loss LSU team. Dart’s opening stretch had him on pace to produce a massive statistical season.
But there’s still plenty of time for Dart to rebound. Ole Miss has road games against LSU and Florida. The Rebels host Oklahoma and Georgia.
Current odds imply only a 7% chance Dart wins the Heisman. Including Saturday’s result, Dart is still on pace for 4,300-plus passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns.
If he beats a team like Georgia with his arm, he’ll have a patented “Heisman Moment” at a crucial point in the season. A 31-touchdown season is well off the pace of recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks, though.
If anything, Saturday’s result provides a buy-low opportunity for those who already rated Dart.
Ward is priced at +300. Jalen Milroe and Nico Iamaleava have the second- and third-shortest odds after him. Ward had a moment of his own on Friday night, leading a comeback victory over Virginia Tech to keep Miami unbeaten. Many believe it’s his award to lose at this juncture.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
