Let’s set some actual realistic expectations for Arch Manning’s return in 2026
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We all needed to take a deep exhale. Arch Manning was neither the greatest college football player since Tim Tebow, nor was he the biggest bust in the history of the sport. In a not-so-stunning development, a first-year starting quarterback was somewhere between those wide pillars on his ridiculous public spectrum in 2025.
In another not-so-stunning development, Manning is returning to Texas for 2026. Fingers crossed that means he can do so with relatively realistic expectations.
What a concept!
In all likelihood, Manning will enter 2026 as a preseason All-SEC quarterback. That’s not uncommon for someone who’ll be entering Year 4 in college and Year 2 as QB1. What’s completely uncommon was Manning entering 2025 as a preseason All-SEC quarterback after he had just 2 career starts in lopsided matchups. Even 2018 Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t a preseason All-SEC quarterback after he delivered one of the most memorable plays in college football history en route to Alabama‘s national championship in 2017.
Speaking of a national championship … just kidding. Let’s not pretend like that should be the expectation for Manning again after Texas earned its first preseason AP No. 1 ranking in program history. The last 2 decades would actually suggest that being the preseason No. 1 team means that winning a title is less likely. Manning’s Longhorns became the 20th team in the last 21 years to start as the preseason No. 1 and fail to win a national title. Go figure that Tagovailoa’s brilliance made 2017 Alabama the lone preseason AP No. 1 to accomplish that feat since 2005.
The 2005 Texas squad was who began this shift, thanks in large part to the best quarterback in program history, Vince Young. Manning came to Texas with an expectation that he could at least give Young a run for his money as the best quarterback to ever wear burnt orange. At this point, that’s not a fair expectation to judge Manning against.
Manning is still just trying to show that he can be an upgrade over his predecessor, Quinn Ewers
That’s a perfectly realistic expectation for Manning to meet (and exceed) in 2026. Say what you will about the physical differences between the two when it comes to stretching the field — both entered college as the No. 1 overall player in their respective classes — but Ewers still has the better legacy having led the program to consecutive Playoff semifinal appearances.
Did Ewers benefit from better surroundings than Manning? You could certainly argue that’s true, but what’s undeniable is that Manning struggled at a pivotal area that Ewers mastered in the Steve Sarkisian offense — short-yardage accuracy (0-9 yards past the line of scrimmage).
In 2024, a banged-up Ewers averaged 7.9 yards on those attempts, which was good for No. 4 in the SEC. Manning, on the other hand, ranked No. 22 among 22 qualified SEC quarterbacks with 5.4 yards per attempt on those throws. And while the receiver play wasn’t as good as what Ewers had to work with, Manning was No. 18 among those 22 SEC quarterbacks with a 77.8% adjusted completion percentage on those short-yardage attempts (that accounts for drops).
The positive is that Manning has at least shown that he can make those throws at this level. In 2024 as Ewers’ backup, he was No. 1 in the SEC with 9.0 yards per attempt and a 92% adjusted completion percentage on his 25 attempts between 0-9 yards. That’s why there was so much said/written/debated about the surprising mechanical woes that plagued him in the first half of the season. It’s also perhaps why there was reason to be encouraged with Manning in the latter half of his first season as QB1.
It’s not just that Manning led Texas to a trio of victories against top-10 teams by winning 6 of 7 games to close the regular season. After all, he still had some head-scratching showings sprinkled in there.
But after he had 13 turnover-worthy plays in the first 5 games, Manning had just 3 such plays in that 7-game stretch after the Florida game. The Kentucky game was the only instance in that stretch in which he posted an adjusted completion percentage (on all throws) of worse than 64%. The accuracy got better. Any world in which Manning sniffs November Heisman Trophy conversations in 2026 includes him building off that and not reverting back to his early-2025 ways. No matter what type of turnover Texas has at the skill-positions — receiver DeAndre Moore and running backs Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter already entered the transfer portal — that needs to be evident.
Let’s also remember that while Manning came up short of earning All-SEC honors at season’s end, much less stay in Heisman conversations after he was the preseason favorite, he still had 3,190 scrimmage yards and 33 touchdowns (don’t forget about his 4-yard receiving score) in a 12-game regular season. That was when Manning didn’t even really benefit in the way that he should’ve from that favorable September nonconference slate because he was a mechanical mess.
Hitting 40 total touchdowns for a more consistent Texas offense is a perfectly realistic expectation for Manning
History suggests that guys who do that, especially for winning teams, are firmly in those November Heisman discussions. Don’t get it twisted. Nobody is saying that Manning’s 2026 expectations should be “Heisman or bust.” Well, at least nobody in this column is saying that. But experience matters. Though there have been occasional examples in the 2020s of quarterbacks like Bryce Young and Julian Sayin who earned Heisman Trophy consideration as first-time starters who weren’t even draft-eligible yet, experience is a common denominator.
Manning will enter 2026 with all eyes on him, albeit with different context. Next year when Vuori or Warby Parker commercials come on in Week 1, Manning will at least have 15 career starts under his belt. Sure, he’ll still have detractors who’ll say “he hasn’t done anything” and “he’s just being talked about because of his last name,” while conveniently ignoring that after those early struggles, Manning became the first quarterback in the 2020s to beat 3 AP Top 10 teams in the regular season (that excludes conference championship weekend).
Sarkisian reminded the world that about that stat whenever he made his Playoff pitch for Texas. While that fell short, Sarkisian is ultimately getting his wish of seeing more of Manning in Austin.
He’ll be on every preseason award list, and plenty will pick Texas to get to the SEC Championship for the second time in 3 years in the conference. That will fall heavily (but fairly) on Manning knowing that the Texas defense is undergoing a significant transition in Year 1 under Will Muschamp. Now, Manning should be built better to handle that. That’s a reasonable thing to ask of someone who got all sorts of experience as a first-year starter. Year 2 will define his legacy.
What a concept.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
