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In the midst of a sustained run of success, it’s easy to get in the mindset that wins will keep piling up. Four straight seasons with double digit wins and seven in Les Miles’ first nine years make it easy to forget that the LSU football program ever struggled. An 8-5 season from 2008 is considered a complete debacle, despite the fact that the team went 3-8 just a decade prior.
Now, Miles is saddled with his worst, or at least his least experienced team since that 2008 slog that saw the team go 3-5 in the SEC. After losing their first two SEC tilts, LSU is staring their worst season under Miles right in the face. It’s the first time the Tigers have started 0-2 in the conference while the man in the crisp white hat has strolled the sidelines.
With their final six games coming against SEC opponents, there are legitimate concerns as to whether or not the team will even be bowl eligible. While this certainly hasn’t been Miles’ best coaching effort — the end of the first half against Auburn, where Miles failed to call a timeout and cost his team a field goal attempt, stands out as a low point in the season — there are plenty of other reasons for the letdown this year.
Among them, the five players from last year’s team who left early for the NFL. LSU is young all over the place, with freshmen and sophomores leading the way at quarterback, running back and receiver, as well as at several critical defensive positions. Their lack of depth and experience along the defensive line is as damaging to their efforts to win in the SEC as the issues at quarterback are, as they’ve been unable to replace talent at crucial spots.
After the last decade-plus in Baton Rouge, the unfathomable seems not just possible but somewhat likely: LSU could finish last in the SEC West. How real is that possibility? Let’s go through the rest of their SEC schedule and see where the wins might come from.
- At Florida, 10/11: LSU is currently favored by 2 points against the Gators, thanks to Florida’s inept offense. The Gators run the ball well enough, and their defense is weakest in an area that LSU will struggle to take advantage of. This will be an ugly, low-scoring game, the type Florida won just a week ago. Likely result: Toss-up
- Kentucky, 10/18: Fans would have laughed at the notion of this being a close game before the season, but they also wouldn’t have anticipated LSU’s struggles. Kentucky has two excellent running backs, with a Wildcat attack is similar to the zone-read plays that have shredded LSU, plus a talented, hungry defense. The Tigers should be favored, but this won’t be a cakewalk. Likely result: Win, but no sure thing
- Ole Miss, 10/25: The Rebels have one of the nastiest defenses in the country, possibly the best in the nation. It’s hard to imagine LSU putting up many points on Ole Miss unless Brandon Harris or Anthony Jennings improves by leaps and bounds in the next two weeks. Luckily for the Tigers, Ole Miss runs the ball poorly and has a weak offensive line, giving LSU a chance to keep this close if they can limit the passing game. Ole Miss will be favored, but it might not be by more than a few points. Likely result: Loss
- Alabama, 11/8: LSU is fortunate to get this game at home, but the Crimson Tide have as solid of a running game as any non-zone-read team in the conference. While Alabama is young at spots in the defensive backfield, they won’t have any issue crowding the line and forcing the quarterbacks to try to beat them through the air. Even if Harris and Jennings do so, good luck slowing down T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Likely result: Loss
- At Arkansas, 11/15: The Razorbacks run the ball, run it some more and then run it again. They have a trio of running backs and a gargantuan offensive line that will make minced meat of LSU’s weak defensive interior, even if they do get Quentin Thomas near full strength. There hasn’t been any evidence that LSU will have a shot at taking down Alex Collins and co. Likely result: Loss
- Texas A&M, 11/27: The Aggies’ season seems to be teetering on the edge after getting beat up by Mississippi State, and many seem to think the bottom could fall out as they try to navigate the treacherous West. It’s not unthinkable that, after being ranked No. 6 last week, they could be unranked by the time Thanksgiving rolls around. They’ve struggled when teams have been able to line up and hit their receivers off the line, which LSU can do, and when Kenny Hill has faced pressure, which its unclear if the Tigers would be able to manage. The Aggies run the ball a lot better than the public’s perception, and will be able to hurt LSU out of the spread. Likely result: Toss up
Looking at the schedule, it seems to be a sure thing that the Tigers will finish with just their second losing conference record under Miles. While 0-8 doesn’t seem likely, there’s a distinct chance they sink that low if they can’t top the Gators this weekend.
A former freelance journalist from Philadelphia, Brett has made the trek down to SEC country to cover the greatest conference in college football.
