LSU and Ole Miss will meet in a matchup of SEC undefeated teams on Saturday in Oxford.
The Tigers already have 1 high-profile road win this season after beating Clemson back in Week 1. Like LSU, Ole Miss is also 4-0 this season and is coming off of a blowout win over Tulane in Week 4.
LSU-Ole Miss spread
Here’s an up-to-date look at the betting odds for this game:
Here’s what you should know about both before placing a bet on this game:
LSU fact sheet
- LSU is 4-0 this season and most recently defeated Southeast Louisiana 56-0.
- Despite the undefeated record, it’s been an underwhelming season so far for Garrett Nussmeier. His average depth of target has dipped from 9.5 yards in 2024 to 6.9 yards so far this season, per PFF.
- Nussmeier has only thrown 3 touchdown passes vs. FBS opponents so far this season. Head coach Brian Kelly revealed earlier this month that Nussmeier is dealing with a torso injury.
- Perhaps as a result of that injury, LSU has leaned heavily on short passes. Per PFF, about 23% of Nussmeier’s attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage. That’s up from 16% last year. His efficiency has also dipped from 6.1 yards per attempt on those throws to 5.3 yards.
- None of LSU’s talented running backs have been effective this year. LSU has posted a rushing success rate of 35.3%, which ranks 117th nationally per Game on Paper.
- Starting running back Caden Durham is also questionable for this game due to an injury he suffered in Week 4.
- Aaron Anderson and Barion Brown have emerged as LSU’s top receivers. Both have already cleared 20 receptions on the year.
- Defensively, LSU is having its best season in recent memory. The Tigers are top-20 in EPA-per-play defense, according to Game on Paper. They’ve been excellent against the run and the pass.
- However, LSU’s FBS opponents so far — Clemson, Louisiana Tech and Florida — have all struggled offensively. None of those teams rank in the top-75 nationally in yards per play. The Bulldogs and Gators are both outside of the top 100.
- LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane is playing his way on to All-America watch lists so far. His 89.6 overall grade from PFF is by far the highest for any LSU defender (min. 75 snaps).
- Despite not recording a sack so far this season, Whit Weeks has been arguably the best pass rushing linebacker in the SEC. Per PFF, he’s recorded 7 pressures and 4 quarterback hits. He also missed almost all of the Florida game due to a targeting penalty.
Ole Miss fact sheet
- Ole Miss has a murkier quarterback situation heading into this game. Austin Simmons has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last couple of weeks. The good news for Ole Miss is Trinidad Chambliss has performed as one of the top quarterbacks in the country in his absence.
- Chambliss has thrown for 719 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 62 pass attempts. He’s also rushed for 195 yards and 2 more scores. The vast majority of that production has come in starts vs. Arkansas and Tulane.
- RB Kewan Lacy has been excellent this season. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and leads the SEC with 7 rushing touchdowns so far this year. He’s also operating at a very high volume with 79 rush attempts and 8 receptions through 3 games. He’s had the ball for almost 35% of the Rebels’ rushes+receptions this season. The next closest Ole Miss player is Chambilss at under 15%.
- It’s been an interesting year for No. 1 receiver Harrison Wallace. On one hand, he’s averaging over 21 yards per reception. On the other hand, he’s only caught 16 of his 29 targets. Among 23 SEC receivers with at least 20 targets so far this year, he ranks 21st with a catch rate just over 55%.
- On defense, Ole Miss has not stopped the run at all this season. The Rebels rank 120th in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper. All 4 of Ole Miss’s opponents so far this season have managed at least 4.6 yards per carry.
- The issue seems to be tackling more than anything else. Per PFF, the Rebels have already missed 20 tackles in run defense so far this season.
- The Ole Miss secondary has been good so far, limiting teams to a passing success rate of just over 30% (ranked 10th nationally per Game on Paper). However, Ole Miss has only faced 1 passing offense that ranks in the top-75 in passer efficiency rating (Arkansas). LSU ranks 62nd entering Week 5.
LSU vs. Ole Miss predictions
I like Ole Miss in this game. The Rebels are at home and I think they’re the better team. In hindsight, LSU’s performances vs. Clemson and Florida — both 1-3 teams — look pretty rough. The Tigers have since lost to Georgia Tech and Syracuse but they had a lead over LSU at the half and had a chance to tie that game late. Florida gifted LSU 5 interceptions and the Tigers still only won by 10. LSU’s only other game against an FBS foe this season was vs. Louisiana Tech and the Tigers only won that game by a couple of scores. Ole Miss’s biggest weakness is rushing defense, but LSU’s been poor in that area — it doesn’t seem like the Tigers are in position to make the Rebs pay there. I haven’t seen anything from this LSU offense to suggest it can keep up with Ole Miss.
Pick: Ole Miss -1.5 (-105 on ESPN Bet)
Along a similar train of thought, I’m going to fade LSU on its opening drive. I think FanDuel has this prop mis-priced. Through 12 games vs. power-conference opponents with Joe Sloan calling the plays, LSU has punted 7 times. That’s a much higher punt rate than the average for a ranked vs. ranked SEC matchup over the past few seasons. Perhaps I’m buying into too small of a sample size, but I’m comfortable fading this offense that hasn’t averaged more than 6.1 yards per play vs. an FBS defense yet. Nussmeier’s nagging torso injury, LSU’s inability to run the ball and Sloan’s poor game script history has me betting on a punt for the Tigers’ opening drive.
Pick: LSU first drive result — Punt (+110 on FanDuel)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
