Miami and Indiana will battle it out in the National Championship Game on Monday night.
This piece will survey the betting landscape in an attempt to find a trio of plus-money bets for the final game of the college football season.
Miami-Indiana best bets
Here are 3 bold predictions and plus-money bets to consider for the game:
CharMar Brown to rush for 30+ yards
I think there’s some value on this line. Mark Fletcher is going to get the majority of the work out of the backfield, but Brown still gets plenty of looks. He had a season-high 14 carries last time out against Ole Miss in the semifinals. Brown has cleared 30+ rushing yards in 4 of his last 8 games and 7 of 14 games overall this season. I expect Indiana will be keyed in on Miami’s run game, but Brown may only need 7 or 8 carries to get to this number.
Pick: CharMar Brown to rush for 30+ yards (+118 on DraftKings)
Indiana to win by 2 touchdowns
The spread for this game is at 7.5 points as of publication. I certainly respect what Miami has done to get to this game, but I think there’s a better-than-average chance that this ends in a blowout for the Hoosiers. I don’t really trust Carson Beck to make plays downfield and I think Indiana’s defense is good enough to make things really uncomfortable for him. Perhaps Miami will be able to run the ball at will like it has in the postseason, but I don’t see that as particularly likely. And if the Canes can’t run the ball, I’m not sure how they sustain drives or score enough to keep up with Indiana.
Pick: Indiana -13.5 alternate spread (+135 on BetMGM)
Omar Cooper Jr. to score
I made this bet again last week and I’m making it again this week. Per CFB-Graphs, here’s the red-zone target breakdown for Indiana’s top 3 receivers:
- Elijah Sarratt: 17
- Omar Cooper: 14
- Charlie Becker: 5
Sarratt and Cooper both have target shares north of 22.6% while Becker is at 11.6%. And yet, Cooper and Becker are priced as equally likely to score a touchdown against the Canes. The data indicates Cooper has a better chance of finding pay dirt.
Pick: Omar Cooper anytime TD (+140 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
