Monday Down South: Auburn’s Hugh Freeze era was hard to watch and easy to end
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 10 in the SEC.
Freeze out
Hugh Freeze was hired at Auburn with 2 more or less explicit goals: Improve the offense and beat Alabama. In Year 3, he failed so thoroughly at the first part that he’s not even going to get a chance at the second. He was officially shown the door on Sunday, hours after his fate was sealed in an unwatchable, 10-3 flop against Kentucky that dropped Freeze’s record to a dismal 6-16 vs. SEC opponents.
Thus continues an unprecedented spree of mid-stream firings across college football, with an entire month remaining in the regular season and no end in sight. (If the final score had gone the other way on Saturday night, I might have been writing the obituary for the Mark Stoops era at Kentucky instead, and probably will be soon enough.) Sometimes, it’s difficult to get a grasp on exactly where it all went wrong, especially when it unravels as quickly as, say, Brian Kelly‘s ouster at LSU, or if it involves some behind-the-scenes melodrama that’s only beginning to come into public view. Freeze made it easy. Whatever there was to say about his relationship with his boss or notoriously meddlesome Auburn boosters, he came by his demise honestly. Everything you really needed to know about what was going wrong and how was right out there on the field, reflected in one of the worst winning percentages in modern school history and an offense that only seemed to get worse the more money they poured into it.
Lord knows, they spent the money. In Year 3, the Tigers finally fielded a lineup built in Freeze’s image, with only a small handful of players who were on the roster he inherited from his doomed predecessor, Bryan Harsin. They invested in the quarterback room, adding 5-star talent via the transfer portal (Jackson Arnold) and the traditional signing class (Deuce Knight, a late-breaking defector from Notre Dame last winter). They invested in upgrading the talent level at wide receiver, shelling out for one of the highest-rated recruits in school history (Cam Coleman) and arguably the best available wideout in the ’25 portal class (Eric Singleton Jr.). They added veteran starters at both tackle positions and at tight end. And all they have to show for it as the calendar turns to November is one of the lousiest attacks anyone can remember, one that ranks dead last in SEC play in total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, pass efficiency, red-zone efficiency, sacks allowed, and much else.
Before hitting rock bottom against Kentucky, the offense managed a grand total of 7 touchdowns in its first 5 SEC games, including 1 at Texas A&M set up by the defense at the A&M 2-yard line. Arnold, allegedly a seven-figure quarterback, kept putting the ball in the air to little effect despite his inconsistency, his inability to challenge defenses downfield, and his o-line’s inability to protect him. In the end, the Tigers benched Arnold following a pick-6 at Arkansas in Week 9; failed to reach the end zone in 5 consecutive quarters under backup Ashton Daniels; allowed Arnold to make a brief, futile appearance in the fourth quarter against the Wildcats; and went out amid a chorus of boos as their last-gasp possession unraveled in the face of what, prior to Saturday night, had been a relatively anemic UK pass rush. Appropriately, the last play of the Freeze era was a desperation heave under duress that sailed well beyond any Auburn receiver and directly into the arms of a waiting Wildcats DB.
On some fundamental level, every Auburn coach must understand from the outset he’s hired to be fired. For decades, life in this job has only ended one way. Used to be, though, that at least they could count on enjoying a peak or two en route to the valley of death. Terry Bowden (1993-98) and Tommy Tuberville (1999-2008) both delivered undefeated seasons and winning records vs. Alabama. Gene Chizik (2009-2012) delivered the most improbable national championship of the BCS/CFP era. Gus Malzahn (2013-20) took a team that failed to win an SEC game the year before his arrival to within 13 seconds of another title in his first season, and went 3-1 vs. peak Death Star-era Bama in Jordan-Hare Stadium. All destined for the scrap heap, eventually, but not without a taste of winning big first.
But since they decided in December 2020 that Malzahn (who never presided over a losing record) was no longer winning big enough, the result has been a flat line of mediocrity or worse: Four consecutive losing seasons, with a fifth in progress, officially Auburn’s longest streak in the red since Shug Jordan himself — the last Auburn coach to leave more or less on his own terms — was hired in 1951. In the depths of the pandemic, the locals weren’t thinking about how much worse things could get, but how much better. As I wrote at the time, dumping Malzahn and his then-astronomical $21.5 million buyout was a bet on the program’s ceiling — a statement that “good enough,” as defined by a steady run of 8- and 9-win seasons that top out in a noon kickoff in the Peach Bowl, isn’t good enough:
To some extent, Malzahn’s legacy will depend on whether that gamble pays off: If the story of the next few years is Auburn successfully leveling up to the point that November rivalry dates with Georgia and Bama are consistently arriving with Playoff implications, the last nine years may be remembered as frustrating ones when the program never quite realized its full potential. If not – if it’s more of the same old cycle of fleeting success and eventual disappointment for the fourth consecutive decade and counting, or worse – Malzahn could just as easily go down as a winner for whom expectations (yet again) outran reality.
Not quite 5 years later, “fleeting success” doesn’t seem like such a sneer, does it? Neither Harsin nor Freeze came close to any kind of success, fleeting or otherwise, recording 10 SEC wins between them with a combined 0-9 record vs. Bama and Georgia. In the same span, the Tigers lost at home to the likes of New Mexico State — the first sign of just how cursed the Freeze era would turn out to be — as well as to unranked versions of Mississippi State, Arkansas, California, Arkansas again, Vanderbilt and finally Kentucky. Their only win over a ranked opponent, a dramatic upset over then-No. 15 Texas A&M in four overtimes last November, came at the expense of a team that fell out of the polls altogether a week later. In the meantime, the would-be franchise quarterback they’d written off as a bust went on to fulfill his potential as a Heisman finalist and first-round draft pick on the opposite side of the country, while Auburn continued to cycle through one failed experiment behind center after another.
Is it possible for the next Bo Nix to fulfill his potential at Auburn? Jackson Arnold, whose scouting report may as well have been generated from the source code of a Bo Nix simulation, was supposed to be the answer to that question. And in a way he has been — just not the one the Tigers were hoping for, by a long shot. Then again, under the same circumstances, who would have been? Cam Coleman’s presence aside, Arnold seemed set up to fail behind an overmatched front and play-calling that even Freeze conceded relied too heavily on Arnold to be something he’s evidently not at this stage of his career: A polished pocket passer.
Whoever comes next will face the same question, whether it’s in regard to Deuce Knight or the next big-ticket addition in the portal. Auburn is not about to stop going all-in to win. But the last thing it can afford is to become the place that hits reset every two-and-a-half years. Forget the buyout. The first thing the Tigers owe the next administration is patience to pick up the pieces.
The agony and the ecstasy of Joey Aguilar
By most accounts, Tennessee “won” the “trade” that resulted in Joey Aguilar replacing Nico Iamaleava as QB1. Statistically, Aguilar has been a clear upgrade. He’s already thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Iamaleava in 2024 on fewer attempts, posting significantly better ratings in terms of both efficiency and Total QBR. He has been vastly more efficient throwing downfield. As a team, the Vols’ scoring average in SEC play has improved by 11 points per game. But what Aguilar has given the Vols in explosiveness, he has cost them dearly with his penchant for killer turnovers.
Aguilar’s reckless streak was a well-documented red flag coming into the season based on his FBS-worst 14 interceptions in 2024 at Appalachian State. So it has come to pass: In Tennessee’s 3 biggest games — losses to Georgia in September, Alabama in October, and Oklahoma on Saturday night — he has thrown 5 INTs; that includes a pair of picks in an overtime loss to the Bulldogs and a crucial, 99-yard pick-6 at Bama that put the Vols behind the 8-ball for the rest of the night in an eventual 37-20 defeat. In Saturday’s must-win date against the Sooners, Aguilar was responsible for 3 giveaways in rapid succession in the first half, all of which led to OU points in a game it initially looked like Tennessee might run away with. In addition to 2 interceptions, he was also victimized on the single biggest swing play of the night, a strip sack that turned a burgeoning scoring opportunity into 7 points going the other way.
All defensive and special teams touchdowns represent a dramatic turn of events, but in a de facto CFP elimination game ultimately decided by 6 points, this one might go down as the turning point in both teams’ seasons. Per the comprehensive box score at gameonpaper.com, R Mason Thomas’ epic, awkward journey to the end zone represented a whopping 11.7-point swing in Extra Points Added, making it not just the most pivotal play in Oklahoma’s eventual win, but the most pivotal play per EPA in any SEC game to date this season. The play it displaced from the top of the list: Alabama’s field-flipping pick-six off Aguilar in Week 8, which represented an 11.3-point swing. No other play has registered in the double digits.
The Sooners did not save their season on a single play in the first quarter, but it’s not a stretch to suggest they could not have won without it. At that point, Tennessee had already housed the opening possession of the game, a 9-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, and was on the verge of putting Oklahoma in a 2-score hole with the Neyland Stadium crowd at full tilt. The mood swing in real time was arguably as seismic as the one on paper. It was also emblematic of Tennessee’s inability to cash in on scoring opportunities throughout the game. Although the Vols moved the ball fairly consistently, they also consistently left points on the board, failing to score on 3 subsequent trips inside the OU 40-yard line. Altogether, 214 of their 456 total yards on the night were “empty” yards, or yards gained on possessions that ultimately yielded zero points.
Arch of progress
Arch Manning turned in easily his best game as a Longhorn Saturday in a 34-31 win over Vanderbilt, which was significantly more lopsided in Texas’ favor than the final score implied. (As a rule, if the game ends on a failed onside kick, it wasn’t really that close. Although Vandy came very close to recovering that kick.) That’s a credit to Manning, of course, who has endured an unbearable level of scrutiny this season as he’s grown in fits and starts into the job. Just like the criticism, though, the hosannas are subject to context. He didn’t suddenly turn into a new quarterback against a top-10 opponent. Texas just succeeded in keeping him in his comfort zone.
First of all, it certainly didn’t hurt that Texas was finally back in Austin coming off a month of mostly harrowing finishes on the road. Weirdly, Saturday was the Longhorns’ first home game in conference play (they were the designated home team for their neutral-site win over Oklahoma in Dallas) and they appeared chuffed to be back. More important, it was their first game in weeks with a relatively healthy and intact offensive line, which did everything in its power to make Manning look good. After weeks of being pummeled in front of hostile crowds, Manning was virtually untouchable on Saturday, facing pressure on just 6 of his 34 drop-backs on the afternoon, per Pro Football Focus, a dramatic decline from his season-to-date pressure rate of more than 40% coming into the game. The Commodores managed to hit him once, planting him on the turf as he released the last of his 3 touchdown passes. Otherwise, his only notable miscue was biffing the celebration after his 2nd TD pass earlier in the day.
Even more important, Steve Sarkisian did his part in protecting his recently concussed meal ticket by calling a game designed to get the ball out of Manning’s hands as quickly as possible. One of the indelible images of the season to date is the opposing pass rush bearing down on Manning as he looks to throw downfield behind a collapsing pocket. Not on Saturday, when Sarkisian dusted off the screen-heavy, quick passing game playbook that served the much less dynamic Quinn Ewers well last year. The first snap of the game, a quick perimeter toss to Ryan Wingo that could have just as easily have gone in the box score as a run rather than a 75-yard touchdown reception, set the tone for an extremely YAC-heavy afternoon.
There was a lot of that, albeit with slightly fewer fireworks on the receiving end. Altogether, 19 of Manning’s 33 attempts fell within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, per PFF, including a dozen attempts behind the line, a season high; meanwhile, 252 of Texas’ 328 receiving yards (77%) came after the catch.
On the other side of the coin, Manning was 0-for-3 on attempts of 20+ air yards, and was only credited with 1 “big-time throw” by PFF’s graders. At some point the Longhorns might need more from him downfield, and more from the beleaguered o-line to make sure he has the time to deliver it. On an afternoon when the priority was limited his exposure to hits coming out of the concussion protocol, the quick game served its purpose, and then some. Now, they have a week off to go back to the drawing board ahead of a trip to Georgia. Trying to outflank the Bulldogs is rarely a winning idea, as the ‘Horns learned last year the hard way.
CFP Realpolitik
It’s that time of year, when the fog begins to lift and the outlines of the postseason picture begin to come into view. Each week down the home stretch, CFP Realpolitik will size up the pecking order from a strictly practical perspective.
Last week we established that, barring a mind-blowing turn of event down the stretch, we can confidently forecast 7 Playoff bids for the Big Ten and SEC: Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas A&M. Playoff odds suggest the same. This week, nothing has changed. “Green Zone” teams were 4-0 in Week 10; they occupy the top 7 spots in both major polls for the second week in a row; and all 7 still boast odds of at least 75% to make the field, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. There are no remaining head-to-head meetings between them in November, meaning all 7 control their own Playoff fate. I would not go so far as to say all 7 can afford a loss over the coming weeks — although the 3 undefeated teams on the list certainly can — but there is enough margin for error at this point that a loss would not necessarily be a dealbreaker, either. Worst-case scenario, 1 or 2 of them wind up sweating out Selection Sunday morning on the bubble.
For now, that leaves 3 automatic spots up for grabs in the ACC, Big 12 and Group of 5, and 2 at-large bids for everyone else. That’s where the speculation resides, because all 5 of those spots remain very much up for grabs.
ACC chaos engaged. The runaway preseason favorite, Clemson, is 2-4 in conference play and driving Dabo Swinney to the brink of his sanity. Florida State, which briefly cracked the top 10 on the strength of its opening-day ambush of Alabama, started 0-4 in ACC play before finally getting on the board Saturday against Wake Forest. Miami, which resided at No. 2 in the AP poll less than 3 weeks ago, has lost 2 of its past 3 to a pair of unranked opponents. Typical Canes, right? Georgia Tech, darling of the cool kids on the strength of an 8-0 start, went down in decisive fashion Saturday in a random, 48-36 loss at NC State.
In the absence of a clear-cut frontrunner, there is Virginia, which sits in sole possession of first place with a 5-0 conference record. (Hilariously, UVA’s only loss also came against NC State, in a nonconference meeting that officially does not count in the standings.) How much faith should you have in Virginia to win the ACC? Well, in addition to the loss to NC State — and in addition to being, you know, Virginia — 3 of the Cavaliers’ 5 ACC wins have come in overtime, including a 17-16 nail-biter against previously hapless North Carolina decided on a failed 2-point conversion. There’s a come-from-behind, 22-20 win over Washington State also in the mix, decided on — I swear I am not making this up — a game-winning safety. If Virginia is 1 of the 12 best teams in the country, I’m in the running for the Nobel Prize for literature.
Then again, who’s gonna stop the Hoos? They only need to be good enough to beat Wake Forest, Duke, and a lame-duck version of Virginia Tech down the stretch to punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game, where their likely opponent will be … uh, one of a half-dozen mediocre outfits currently sporting a 4-1 or 5-1 conference mark, none of which currently controls its fate. If you want to do the math on potential tiebreaker scenarios, be my guest. I would suggest watching highlights of Pitt’s true freshman QB sensation, Mason Heintschel, instead until it’s possible to discern a signal amid the noise.
Is the Big 12 a 2-bid league? Nationally, only 1 game remains pitting 2 teams currently ranked in the top 10: No. 8 BYU at no. 9 Texas Tech this weekend. The outcome in Lubbock will go a long way to sorting out the rest of the Big 12 race, with the winner clearly seizing the pole position for the conference’s automatic bid. Tech opened as a 10.5-point favorite, reflecting the consensus that the Red Raiders (whose only loss came with starting QB Behren Morton sidelined by injury at Arizona State) are the class of the league.
Either way, by most projections this weekend’s collision is only the prelim ahead of a potential rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game. I have to say potential, rather than likely, because that is by no means a given with Cincinnati (5-1 in conference play) still very much in the mix despite a wipeout loss at Utah on Saturday — the Bearcats host BYU on Nov. 22 in another pivotal game. The Utes are not out of it, either, although at 4-2 with head-to-head losses to Texas Tech and BYU they need a lot of variables to fall their way. But the best-case scenario for the conference is straightforward: A close, compelling game between BYU and Tech this weekend, followed by a close, compelling rematch in Arlington on Dec. 6. If both teams take care of their business against the rest of their schedules, the loser in the title game could still be in prime position to claim the last at-large spot, especially if the result of the 2 head-to-head meetings is a split. Any other scenario, and the outlook is probably championship or bust.
The SEC’s drive for 5. Again, the SEC can safely anticipate 4 teams in the field. Projecting a 5th is much dicier. Three of the 4 teams currently on the bubble — Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas — have multiple games remaining against ranked opponents; the next games on their respective schedules are against Texas A&M, Alabama (in Tuscaloosa), and Georgia (in Athens). After that, Missouri and Oklahoma go head-to-head in Norman in Week 13, and Texas hosts A&M in Week 14. The 4th bubble team, Vanderbilt, still faces a season-ending trip to Tennessee. All of the above face an uphill battle to arrive at 10-2.
Mizzou and Vandy must win out. I would not be optimistic about the prospects of Oklahoma or Texas crashing the field at 9-3, but that doesn’t mean they won’t have enough of a case to make a stink about it, just like Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina last year. For one thing, to finish 9-3, the Sooners and Longhorns would both have to add another quality win to their résumés. If the debate over the final at-large ticket(s) comes down to OU/Texas vs. a 10-2 Notre Dame, or the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, the “skins on the wall” argument would surely favor the former. That didn’t carry the day last year — nor should it have, under the circumstances — but after 12 months of lobbying, who knows? One of the most interesting variables to keep an eye on during the initial release of the CFP committee’s weekly ratings on Tuesday night is where Oklahoma and Texas fall in relation to Notre Dame. The traditional polls favor the Irish, for now. If the committee follows suit, take that as a signal that the margin for error for the Sooners and ‘Horns is approximately zero.
Dude of the Week: Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy
Ole Miss’ backfield underwhelmed in 2024, plagued by injuries and inconsistency. The result was a committee approach that never came close to replacing workhorse Quinshon Judkins following his transfer to Ohio State. Improving the talent level was a top offseason priority. Enter Lacy, an unsung transfer from Missouri whom the Rebels had recruited out of high school and wasted no time putting to work as the undisputed RB1. Through 9 games, he has toted the rock more times than any other FBS player this season, his 23 touches per game slightly exceeding Judkins’ heavy-duty pace in 2022-23.
Also like Judkins, Lacy is a grinder who packs more punch than his listed 210 pounds and gets most of his yards the hard way. Per PFF, he’s No. 2 nationally in missed tackles forced (65) and 3rd in yards after contact (632). In Ole Miss’ 33-14 win over South Carolina, Lacy logged 24 carries, forced 7 missed tackles, and generated more than three-fourths of his 167 rushing yards after contact.
Unlike Judkins, who rarely flashed breakaway speed, Lacy has an extra gear in the open field, on full display on Saturday night on a game-clinching, 54-yard touchdown run in the 4thquarter. After leaving a would-be tackler at the line of scrimmage grasping at air, he proceeded to hit the jets, McFadden-style, racing straight through the heart of the Gamecocks’ secondary without breaking stride between the 50-yard line and the end zone.
Give the umpire an assist there for briefly screening a safety, but anybody capable of turning this …
… into a touchdown on a dead sprint has juice to spare. The safeties Lacy dusted on that play, Jalon Kilgore (No. 24) and DQ Smith (No. 1) are potential pros with 72 career starts between them. Next stop: All-SEC.
HONORABLE MENTION: Oklahoma kicker Tate Sandell, who connected on all 4 of his field-goal attempts in the Sooners’ win at Tennessee, including 3 from 50+ yards. Sandell, a transfer from UT-San Antonio, is 18-for-19 for the season and a perfect 6-for-6 from beyond 50. The kickers are too good!
Dud of the Week: South Carolina’s offense
I’m running out of new ways to describe how bad Carolina is on this side of the ball. Here’s one: Per efficiency guru Brian Fremeau, the Gamecocks are averaging a meager 1.41 points per drive this season, worst in the SEC and 123rd nationally. Here’s a representative example of what that looks like in action, which pretty well sums up the experience of watching LaNorris Sellers operate this season behind the league’s most unstable o-line:
That was 1 of 6 sacks on the night for Ole Miss, raising Sellers’ total to an SEC-worst 33 sacks for the season. Somebody’s walking the plank after an effort like that, and since they already fired the offensive line coach a few weeks back it was offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s turn to take the plunge Sunday.
Shane Beamer is running out of other people to sacrifice to an increasingly hostile fan base. The question at this point might not be so much whether he’s reconsidering bailing for the head-coaching vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech, but whether the Hokies are still interested in him.
Notebook
1.) I respected Georgia QB Gunner Stockton’s decision to take a knee at the 1-yard line at the end of the Dawgs’ 24-20 win over Florida in the Cocktail Party rather than score a walk-in touchdown to cover the 7.5-point spread. I really did. Am I salty that it prevented my pregame prediction of a 31-20 final score from hitting on the nose? Of course not! I don’t bet money, and anyway, I nailed the 38-35 final score in Mississippi State’s win over Arkansas, so my ego was sated. I would never yell futilely at the television over something so petty as a point spread. I was yelling “sportsmanship!” That’s all.
2.) Two notable calls went against the Gators, both of which fell squarely into the “eye of the beholder” zone. The first came late in the first half, on an exquisitely timed and executed blitz by Florida DB Jordan Castell right into Stockton’s lap. Castell jarred the ball loose from Stockton’s hand for an apparent fumble … but not apparent enough, apparently. Upon further review, the call was overturned as an incomplete pass.
Am I overturning that if it’s up to me? No. Am I heatedly objecting? Also no. Georgia maintained possession and kicked a field goal to tie the score at 10-10 heading into halftime.
The second, and much more crucial, call came late in the 4th quarter, with Florida trailing 24-20 and down to what would turn out to be its last gasp on offense. On 3rd down, DJ Lagway found a wide-open J.Michael Sturdivant behind the UGA secondary, but couldn’t get enough mustard on the ball to hit him on his feet; instead, Sturdivant went to the ground to cradle a dive-bombing throw, which arrived at the perfect angle for everyone in the stadium and watching at home to see exactly what they needed to see to confirm whatever result they wanted.
From one angle, I thought “catch.” From the next, I thought “eh, it bounced.” From the next, man, I have no idea. The ruling on the field — no catch — stood, as it probably (?) should have given the inconclusiveness of the review. Florida failed to convert the ensuing 4th-down attempt and didn’t touch the ball again.
Am I sure? No. Am I objecting to the outcome? Again, no. Another rough day to be a Gator.
3.) A nice moment in Texas’ win over Vanderbilt: Texas fans, whose team’s Playoff chances are hanging by a thread after opening the season at No. 1 in the polls, directing the “O-VER-RA-TED” chant at … Vanderbilt.
4.) Vandy’s tackling was atrocious, especially in the first half. Clark Lea actually identified tackling in space as a potential issue before the game, telling reporters last week, “I don’t know that that’s been a strength for us in terms of leverage and closing spaces out there.” The man knows his team: PFF charged the ‘Dores with 20 missed tackles, including 6 by the usually sure-tackling safety CJ Heard.
Moment of Zen of the Week
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
