Don’t get upset. They’re just upsets.
Predicting upsets in the preseason is, by all accounts, a crapshoot. To go out on a limb in August is different than doing so in November. As in, when it feels like we actually have an idea what these teams are supposed to look like. By then, I could back off an upset pick that I had in the preseason.
Four years ago, I predicted in the preseason that Texas A&M would beat Alabama for the first time in the post-Johnny Manziel era. Then A&M’s season started in disastrous fashion, Alabama looked like a world-beater and by the time the game rolled around, I backed off the pick. We know how that played out. A&M handed Alabama its first loss to an unranked team since Louisiana-Monroe in 2007 and I deserved 0 credit for an upset that I predicted in August because I wasn’t willing to double down on it.
Consider that my way of saying that for starters, I can be a bit dumb at times. Also, predicting these upsets now doesn’t mean I’ll stay locked into it 3 months from now. Teams change. People change.
Until further notice, though, these upset picks won’t change. Just don’t get upset about them.
(I’m now on the record in multiple places with these picks because I have them in my Crystal Ball series, which you can read in its entirety on SDS.)
8. Mizzou beats Auburn in Auburn
Don’t think this is a big enough upset to make the cut after Mizzou won this game last year with a quarterback who spent part of the game in the hospital? OK, ask Auburn fans how upset they’d be if they lost to Mizzou at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This is another one of those games wherein possessions can be at a premium and coaching decisions will be magnified. I wonder about a dejected Auburn defense repeatedly being asked to get stops against what should be an impressive Mizzou ground attack. And by this point in the season, I’m not convinced that whatever version of the Auburn offense is out there will stack up well against a Mizzou defense that was No. 20 in scoring defense and is No. 5 in America in percentage of returning production. Hugh Freeze suffers another brutal loss in front of the Auburn faithful.
7. Ole Miss beats LSU in Oxford
This is a significant upset for my preseason prediction of LSU winning a national title. By this point in late-September, I wonder if the Tigers’ fast start will catch up to them a bit. I expect LSU to be a top-4 team with wins against Clemson and Florida already. How many times has Lane Kiffin beaten a top-4 team in his career, you ask? Twice, including last year in Oxford when his team knocked off Georgia. This game will have a similar feel against the eventual-SEC champs. Austin Simmons will put the improving, but still not a finished product, LSU defense in tough spots. Garrett Nussmeier will be harassed by Suntarine Perkins and an underrated group of Ole Miss pass-rushers. Unlike last year when he put on his cape and pulled off a comeback to stun Ole Miss, he’s bottled up in a signature victory for Kiffin.
6. Vanderbilt beats Auburn in Nashville
You had me at “Diego Pavia vs. Freeze.” Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Pavia has already fooled us 3 times against Freeze — don’t forget that he led New Mexico State to a win against Freeze’s Liberty squad in 2022 — so why would we assume that streak ends with Pavia finally getting a home game in this rivalry? And yes, Pavia does take it personally that Freeze had multiple chances to recruit him in the transfer portal, and he passed. Pavia is leading a Vanderbilt offense that ranks No. 8 in FBS in percentage of returning production, including 73% of a defense (No. 10 in FBS) that completely stymied Freeze’s offense at Jordan-Hare Stadium last year. Once again, Pavia and Co. get it done against the Auburn coach.
5. LSU beats Alabama in Tuscaloosa
After how lopsided last year’s game was, you’d better believe that this is an upset. Kalen DeBoer hasn’t lost a home game since 2021 when he was Fresno State’s coach. Shoot, Alabama hasn’t lost to an SEC team in Bryant-Denny Stadium since LSU in 2019. But just as it was for LSU in 2019, winning in Tuscaloosa proves to be the beginning of something special. How does it happen? LSU’s defensive improvement is notable against a much different Alabama offense, which becomes a bit too pass-heavy at times. Nussmeier looks as confident as ever on the road, and Alabama struggles to generate a pass-rush to slow down the air attack. Instead of Alabama keeping its SEC title path clear, it runs into an LSU buzzsaw.
4. Arkansas beats Texas A&M in Fayetteville
I know, I know. A&M owns Arkansas. It does. There’s no denying the 12-1 advantage that the Aggies have in this series since joining the SEC, while Arkansas fans have had an “if it can go wrong, it will go wrong” mindset vs. A&M. What changes that? A change of scenery. A&M is 3-12 in true road games the last 4 seasons. That’s a slightly better win percentage than Arkansas has against A&M, but more relevant for this matchup is an improved Taylen Green. His ball security isn’t the issue that it was against A&M a year earlier. Arkansas feeds off an electric home crowd. Instead of having a costly back-breaking play late, Green waltzes in for a dagger touchdown to fend off an Aggie comeback. Arkansas beats a top-10 team at home for the second time in as many seasons.
3. Kentucky beats Tennessee in Lexington
This isn’t quite as stunning as when Kentucky took down Ole Miss in Oxford for last year’s top upset, but it’s close. Scrambling for their first SEC win of the year and first victory against a Power Conference foe at Kroger Field since Sept. 2023 — it’s 8 consecutive losses in those games — UK finally shows up with the right mindset. A ground-heavy approach with Nebraska transfer Dante Dowdell and New Mexico State transfer Seth McGowan wears down a Tennessee squad that looks a bit flat coming off a loss at Alabama. Josh Heupel has owned Mark Stoops since his arrival in Knoxville, but he hasn’t owned road games. An 8-10 true road game mark resurfaces at the worst possible time for a Tennessee squad that suffers a Playoff-hope crushing loss.
2. Florida beats Georgia in Jacksonville
For the first time since 2020, Florida has the ability to go blow for blow with Georgia. Why? It finally has the talent in the trenches. Florida has multiple guys on both the offensive and defensive lines who are projected as first-round NFL Draft prospects. That, plus a healthy DJ Lagway, makes all the difference. It’s not that the Gators are the better team (I have Florida finishing 8-4 and UGA going 11-1). It’s that Georgia catches Florida on its best day of the season. An early 17-0 lead puts Georgia on its heels from the jump, and while Gunner Stockton and the Georgia ground game eventually get going, an inability to get stops leads to the Dawgs’ first loss of 2025. Billy Napier, who enters the season without a win away from The Swamp vs. a Power Conference bowl team, gets his biggest victory to date.
1. Mississippi State beats Ole Miss in Starkville
Just in case you don’t believe this is worthy of the No. 1 spot, let me paint a little Egg Bowl picture here. In the final regular season game, a 9-2 Ole Miss squad is 60 minutes away from its first Playoff berth. All it has to do is beat a Mississippi State squad that’s searching for its first SEC win in over 2 years. No big deal, right? But with the cowbells rocking, Jeff Lebby‘s squad treats this like its Super Bowl. Against his former boss, Lebby’s offense looks like it’s finally coming together. It turns into an unstoppable showing by the Mississippi State ground attack with Davon Booth and South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell, who averaged more yards after first contact (4.57) than any FBS running back with 100 carries not named “Ashton Jeanty” in 2024. In an all-too-familiar flashback to Jaxson Dart’s late-game struggles, Simmons is flustered by a suddenly resurgent Mississippi State pass rush and he makes too many mistakes late.
It takes until Rivalry Week, but the Egg Bowl delivers the biggest SEC upset of 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
