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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with NC State. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami
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Double-digit wins. An ACC championship. National respect and recognition.
The goals remain the same as always at NC State.
Only now they actually seem reachable instead of serving as an invitation for disappointment later in the season.
The entire dynamic of the Wolfpack’s athletic perception has shifted since the last time Dave Doeren’s team took the field at the Pop-Tarts Bowl in December.
It changed the night Kevin Keatts’ basketball team cut down the nets after beating rival North Carolina for the ACC Tournament title in Washington, DC.
The upset victory didn’t just make history by completing an improbable run of 5 wins in as many days and ending a 37-year championship drought. It also dispelled the self-fulfilling prophecy that has been part of State’s culture for as long as anyone can remember.
#NCStateStuff is gone.
A thing of the past.
Dead and buried.
Since its demise, the Wolfpack have sent their men’s and women’s basketball teams to the Final Four, and their baseball team to the College World Series.
Next up is Doeren’s football team. And suddenly, everything seems possible.
“What the men’s and women’s basketball teams did this winter was unbelievable,” Doeren said. “What coach (Elliott) Avent just did with his baseball team. Our wrestling program. Our cross-country program. So many of them are doing so well. It really is a strong athletic department.
“That wave, that momentum starts with the fall sports. So it’s our turn. We’re excited about riding the red wave everyone has created.”
It’s a goal based on more than just blind hope.
Doeren and his staff have upgraded an offense that was last season’s weak link with the addition of 3-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Grayson McCall at quarterback, and a stable of proven playmakers to surround him and Freshman All-American receiver KC Concepcion.
The Wolfpack are also blessed with a favorable schedule that has them playing all but 3 of their games within their home state. That includes a date with Tennessee in Charlotte that has the potential to earn them the kind of national recognition they could once only dream about.
But now suddenly seems within reach.
Transfer tracker
Improving an offense that ranked 9th in the ACC in scoring and 10th in total yardage last season was priority No. 1 for the Wolfpack this offseason. And Doeren accomplished that goal in a big way.
He hit an early home run by landing McCall. He then surrounded the former Coastal Carolina star with plenty of playmakers with the additions of receivers Noah Rogers from Ohio State and Wesley Grimes from Wake Forest, tight end Justin Joly from UConn, and running backs Jordan Waters from Duke and Oklahoma’s Hollywood Smothers. Doeren also replaced departing center Dylan McMahon with Notre Dame graduate Zeke Correll.
With his offensive wish list filled, the State coach next turned his attention to adding talent and depth on defense.
Among the new additions are space-eating nose tackle Chazz Wallace from Colorado, who will help make up for the portal loss of CJ Clark, along with safeties Ja’Had Carter and Kerry Martin. Carter returns to the ACC, where he amassed 135 tackles and 5 interceptions at Syracuse, after a season at Ohio State. Martin, who had 45 tackles and 2 interceptions at Akron in 2023, is the cousin of former Wolfpack cornerback Derrek Pitts Jr.
“You have to find guys that fit what we’re all about,” Doeren said. “It’s earned, not given. It’s guys that want to work, enjoy the brotherhood of the game, that are willing to sacrifice for the cause. We were blessed this year. We had a bunch of really good players that fit the design of what we were doing, that fit returning players as well.”
Running with the Pack
The Wolfpack ranked in the middle of the ACC in rushing last season at 156 yards per game. But that stat is deceiving. Their top 2 ground gainers were quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who did a lot of his running out of necessity, and wide receiver Concepcion.
Running backs Kendrick Raphael, Delbert Mims II, Michael Allen and Jordan Houston combined for only 938 rushing yards. The lack of a consistent ground game was especially noticeable in short-yardage situations and around the goal line.
And it’s an area that will have a much different look in 2024.
Mims, Allen and Houston transferred. They’ve been replaced by the transfer duo of Waters and Smothers, and 4-star freshman Duke Scott, who along with Raphael give State a much more experienced, diverse collection of ball carriers.
Waters, a 6th-year graduate who ran for 819 yards and 12 touchdowns for Duke in 2023, is the most accomplished of the group. He’s also taken on the role of mentor and role model to his younger teammates.
“I feel good about the running back room,” Doeren said. “It’s a great room. There’s good leadership but there’s depth. There’s competition and the guys are working hard. Jordan has done a really nice job showing them what it looks like coming back from the season he had last year. That’s part of your job as an older player, holding those guys to a standard.”
Replacing Payton Wilson
His name is Sean Brown. And he might just have the most unenviable task in college football this season. He’s the player being asked to play the position vacated by the departure of Payton Wilson. the ACC Defensive Player of the Year and Butkus Award winner as the nation’s best linebacker.
That’s a tough enough assignment simply in terms of production. Wilson led the Wolfpack with 138 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries while finishing 2nd on the team with 6 sacks, 6 pass breakups and 10 quarterback hurries. But with his aggressive, all-out style, the 3rd-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers was also the embodiment of what Doeren describes as State’s “blue-collar, hand-in-the-dirt” personality.
The good news for Brown, a 6-foot, 207-pound redshirt junior who recorded 66 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 interceptions as a safety last season, is that he’ll have plenty of help in trying to replicate Wilson’s numbers. State returns 19 lettermen from a defense that gave up the 3rd-fewest points in the ACC last season. It’s a group that includes 6 of the top 10 tacklers – Brown, fellow linebacker Caden Fordham, safeties Devan Boykin and Bishop Fitzgerald, edge rusher Davin Vann and cornerback Aydan White.
As much as Wilson will be missed, those he left behind are confident in their ability to carry on without much – if any – drop-off. And they’re motivated by those predicting otherwise.
“Of course, we take it a little bit personally. It’s understandable,” Vann said. “A lot of people think that because we lost Payton, we lost our whole defense. That’s definitely not the case. We have some dawgs that are ready to go out there and play. Our defense is going to be really good.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Western Carolina (W)
The score and the margin of victory are meaningless. It’s more important for the Wolfpack to smooth out any rough edges they might have before heading to Charlotte for a program-defining showdown against Tennessee.
Week 2: vs. Tennessee at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte (W)
Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava will provide a stiff challenge for the Wolfpack’s veteran secondary. But if State’s offensive line can keep future 1st-round NFL Draft pick James Pearce Jr. out of its backfield, a Tennessee defense that lost 10 defensive backs to the transfer portal and draft will have just as big of a challenge. It’s finally the Wolfpack’s time.
Week 3: vs. Louisiana Tech (W)
Sandwiched between the season’s 2 most meaningful tests – at least until the regular-season finale against rival North Carolina – the Wolfpack will have to be on trap game alert for this one.
Week 4: at Clemson (L)
State has won 2 of the past 3 from Clemson. But both victories came in Raleigh. This year’s game is at Death Valley, where the Tigers have won 10 straight against the Wolfpack. As much as things have changed over the past 6 months, some things remain the same.
Week 5: vs. Northern Illinois (W)
Back to the future for Doeren, who led the Huskies to a 23-4 record in his 2 seasons before coming to Raleigh.
Week 6: vs. Wake Forest (W)
Homefield really is an advantage in this series. While the Deacons have won 9 of the past 11 meetings in Winston-Salem, the Wolfpack are 7-1 in the past 8 in Raleigh. This year’s game at Carter-Finley Stadium comes with a twinge of sadness. After playing every year since 1910, the longest continuous rivalry between ACC schools will be discontinued next year thanks to the expanded league’s new scheduling model.
Week 7: vs. Syracuse (W)
The Orange will be improved under new coach Fran Brown. Just not enough to go on the road and beat a team with legitimate championship aspirations.
Week 8: at Cal (W)
State was among the best in the ACC against the run last season, allowing only 116 yards per game. That doesn’t bod well for a Bears offense that relies heavily on the running of Jaydn Ott.
Week 9: Open
Week 10: vs. Stanford (W)
The Cardinal haven’t won more than 4 games in a season since 2018. They’re picked to finish last in their inaugural ACC season for a reason.
Week 11: vs. Duke (W)
A listless loss to the Blue Devils in Durham was the low point of the Wolfpack’s 2023 season. Jordan Waters played a major role in that 13-3 defeat by running for 123 yards and a touchdown. This time, he’ll be playing for State.
Week 12: Open
Week 13: at Georgia Tech (L)
A 10-win season is still on the table. But thanks to Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets, an ACC Championship Game appearance will have to wait for at least another year.
Week 14: at North Carolina (W)
The Tar Heels couldn’t beat the Wolfpack over the past 3 seasons with Sam Howell or Drake Maye at quarterback. Unless Geoff Collins works miracles with UNC’s defense, they won’t have enough offense to avoid a 4th straight loss. Even in Chapel Hill, where State has won 4 of the past 5.
2024 projection: 10-2 (6-2)
#1Pack1Goal
Doeren has carved out a niche thanks to a combination of his success on the field and a personality that aligns almost perfectly with the identity of his fan base. At the same time, he’s had it relatively easy. Win 8 or 9 games every year. Give the fans a nice bowl trip. Put the hated Tar Heels in their place and they’ll erect a statue in your honor outside Carter-Finley Stadium.
At least that was the formula. But the dynamic changed in mid-March when the Wolfpack’s men’s basketball team put together a miracle run to win its first ACC Tournament championship in 37 years. The ante was upped even further when both the men’s and women’s teams advanced to the Final Four. And the baseball team followed by getting to the College World Series.
The product of those successes is that winning ACC championships and competing on a national level is no longer a wishful fantasy at State. It has become a reality. Thanks to some key transfer portal additions and the return of dynamic playmaker Concepcion, one of the best freshmen in the country last season, Doeren has put together a team capable of contending for an ACC title and getting over the 10-win hump.
He’s not in any danger of losing his job. But the pressure is on for him to deliver.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
