Nobody is talking about (or scared of) Oklahoma because of the offense, but are we ignoring something obvious?
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Nobody has Oklahoma on the short list of teams who can win a national championship, nor should they.
Any sort of discussion about the Sooners’ potential in this field has to include a question or 2 about the lackluster offense that we saw in the latter half of the season. It’s a unit that only averaged 123.8 rushing yards per game, which is 1 yard better than 1999 FSU, who had the worst rushing attack among teams who have won a national title in the last 90 years. There’s a reason why the Sooners, even with perhaps a top-3 defense in the sport, are only ahead of a pair of Group of 5 teams with +5000 odds to win a national title (via FanDuel).
OU is barely inside the top 100 in the FBS (No. 93) with 5.4 yards/play, and it only hit 8.0 yards/pass attempt in the bookend games of the regular season. That only happened in the regular-season finale because of a coverage bust with a true freshman corner, which allowed Isaiah Sategna to waltz in for a 58-yard, go-ahead touchdown in a 17-13 nail-biter against 7-win LSU.
Had that not happened, there’s a good chance we’re talking about OU in the Gator Bowl instead of hosting a home Playoff game on Friday night against Alabama. That is, in fact, happening. Those outside of Norman might’ve forgotten about OU amid all the discussion about Alabama’s Playoff-worthiness, as well as Kalen DeBoer‘s name being linked to the Michigan job.
But in a game that’s seemingly a coin flip — different oddsmakers have had both teams as 1-point favorites leading up to Friday — we should probably be asking a question or 2 about the lackluster offense that we saw in the latter half of the season.
What if a 3-week break was exactly what the doctor ordered for John Mateer?
Specifically, what if a 3-week break is something that Dr. Shin ordered for a guy who hasn’t quite been himself since his expedited recovery from thumb surgery? Lord knows that’s not as groundbreaking of a message-board discussion as the original Dr. Shin news that Mateer was set to return for the Red River Rivalry. Dare I say, however, it’d be an even greater development for Oklahoma in Round 1 of the Playoff if the veteran signal caller came out looking like his pre-injury, Heisman odds-leading version of himself who fueled the 4-0 start.
Let’s not assume that’s imminent. Let’s instead just play out a not-so-crazy scenario that he’s as healthy as he’s been since September after getting his cast removed.
Mateer got hurt ahead of the Kent State game, and then had the bye week to return before Texas. That wasn’t really a bye week for Mateer because of surgery/recovery/rehab. The only other time that Mateer had extra rest was ahead of the Alabama game. Like, when Mateer — and the leg of shorts-wearing All-American Tate Sandell — did just enough for the OU offense in a monumental win in Tuscaloosa. Of course, it helped that a defense without R Mason Thomas harassed Ty Simpson and forced 3 turnovers. On that day, Mateer didn’t turn the ball over and his gritty 20-yard touchdown run reminded everyone of the guy that we saw in the first month of the season.
With extra rest, we at least got flashes of Mateer’s play-making ability against Alabama. During OU’s late-season Playoff push, those flashes have been overshadowed by his accuracy issues, some questionable decision-making (that Tennessee interception was as bad as you’ll see from a team protecting a late lead) and a rushing attack that’s struggled to find consistent non-Mateer options. It doesn’t take an offensive savant to realize that the Sooners have been limited since his return, and with a defense that’s more than capable of doing the heavy lifting, there’s clearly been an emphasis from Brent Venables for Ben Arbuckle to have a more conservative offensive approach. OU has done a good enough job of seizing those rare opportunities for a chunk play, usually by way of Sategna.
Against Alabama, OU would prefer to not rely on that blueprint. That is, having a low offensive success rate and praying that a chunk passing play bails the offense out. The Tide have allowed the second-fewest 20-yard passes of any FBS defense. It’s not that the Sooners will opt out of taking downfield chances. But given how Mateer has struggled with 13 turnover-worthy plays post-surgery — he had 6 in the Texas game alone — could we perhaps see more of those gap-designed QB runs? That’s where Mateer has been at his best. In the 3 games with at least 7 gap-designed runs (Michigan, Tennessee and Mizzou), Mateer has had at least 75 rushing yards. Yes, 2 of those games came during OU’s rough offensive showing after Mateer’s return, but focus on that Michigan game.
If Venables can draw up a winning blueprint, it’s repeating what worked against Michigan
That might be a weird thing to say consider that OU beat Alabama in November, but that game saw OU win the turnover battle 3-0 and it got a massive kicking advantage in a game that was decided by 2 points. How repeatable is that?
The Michigan game, however, was total domination by Oklahoma. Outside of allowing that 75-yard touchdown run to Justice Haynes to kick off the second half, it was exactly the type of blueprint that OU fans envisioned when Venables took over for Lincoln Riley. Sure, the Oklahoma defense dominated a true freshman quarterback in his first career road start, but the offense was the headliner. Mateer’s greatness that night went beyond the box score. He was shifty, decisive and precise in a game that was seemingly never in doubt.
I’d love to know how much emphasis Venables and Arbuckle have put on getting back to that version of Mateer now that Oklahoma is in the Playoff and coming off some extra rest. Quite simply, OU cannot win a national title with the offense that we saw the majority of the latter half of the season. If Mateer is indeed as healthy as he’s been since September, the Sooners would be foolish not to put it on full display. Yes, that could be risky to unleash someone with 10 turnover-worthy plays on 10-19 yard throws, but you know what else is risky? Having a limited playbook with the season on the line.
Oklahoma has a chance to be the Playoff fly in the ointment in ways that nobody is discussing. That only happens if Mateer is truly back.
A 3-week break still might not be long enough to yield that. Time will tell. It’s time to see if Mateer is capable of putting a new question on the table.
Who wants to play the best version of Oklahoma?
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
