Notre Dame vs. Miami: Betting against the Fighting Irish offense

Notre Dame will take the trip to Miami Gardens for a top-10 matchup with the Hurricanes this weekend.

This will be the Fighting Irish’s first action since they fell to Ohio State in last year’s National Championship Game. Notre Dame has plenty of new faces, but also some key returning figures like head coach Marcus Freeman and star running back Jeremiyah Love. Miami, meanwhile, is still making its ascent under Mario Cristobal and will be hoping to make the College Football Playoff for the first time ever this fall.

Notre Dame is a 2.5-point road favorite over Miami in Week 1, according to most sports betting apps. The total has settled at around 49.5 at most shops.

Notre Dame vs. Miami betting preview

Here’s what you need to know before making a wager on this game:

Notre Dame fact sheet

• For the sixth consecutive year, Notre Dame will begin the season with a new starting quarterback. CJ Carr earned the nod out of fall camp, beating out Kenny Minchey. However, buzz out of South Bend has been mixed on that selection since Marcus Freeman announced the decision earlier this month. 
• Both Carr and Minchey are very inexperienced options. Minchey is more of a dual-threat QB, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him have certain packages in the offense. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has thrived with running quarterbacks throughout his career (most recently Riley Leonard and Jayden Daniels).
• Notre Dame lost much of its offensive line depth to the transfer portal or the NFL this offseason, but the Irish do return most of their starting lineup. Anthonie Knapp, Billy Scrauth, Ashton Craig, Sullivan Absher, Aamil Wagner have all played significant snaps. There’s also Charles Jagusah, who is recovering from an offseason UTV-related injury but should contribute at some point this season. 
• With apologies to Penn State, Notre Dame probably has the best 1-2 running back combo in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Receiver is still a bit of a question for the Irish, but they should be able to move the ball at will on the ground against most of their opponents. 
• Defensively, Notre Dame has a pair of excellent cornerbacks in Christian Gray and Leonard Moore. The linebacker room is stacked, too. Perhaps there are more questions, though, with the defensive line. Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills are both gone. In the secondary, safety Xavier Watts will be difficult to replace, too. 
• Former Rutgers head coach Chris Ash was installed as Notre Dame’s DC this offseason, replacing Al Golden, who left for the NFL. Golden leaves behind big shoes to fill as Notre Dame finished last season ranked 11th nationally in yards per play allowed. 

Miami fact sheet

• Mario Cristobal found success in the transfer portal last cycle with Cam Ward and will be attempting to pull the same thing off again with Carson Beck. The former Georgia Bulldog was excellent in 2023, but endured a down season in 2024. The blame for that downturn could be placed on a few different people, but Beck certainly owns at least some of it. It’s also worth noting that Beck had offseason elbow surgery after suffering a serious injury in the SEC title game a year ago. 
• A big problem for Beck last season was Georgia didn’t adequately replace Brock Bowers or Ladd McConkey in its passing game. Its wide receiver room in particular was lacking. It’s unclear if Miami will be a big step up in that regard or not. Xavier Restrepo is gone and Joshisa Trader is expected to be the Canes’ top wideout, but he has just 6 career receptions. 
• The strength of this offense is its offensive line. The Canes return 4 starters up front and may end up as a Joe Moore Award contender if things break right. 
• Miami ultimately missed the College Football Playoff last season due to defensive issues. Cristobal decided to part ways with defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and replace him with Corey Hetherman, who was previously in the same role at Minnesota. 
• Miami is 22nd in defensive returning production, per ESPN, so the Canes do have some continuity coming back on that side of the ball. 

Notre Dame vs. Miami best bets

To get right to the point — I’m fading CJ Carr until he proves that I shouldn’t. This is a really tough spot for a redshirt freshman quarterback with no game experience. Hard Rock Stadium generally gets up for big games, so this should be a raucous environment. Notre Dame is a run-heavy team and I don’t really believe much in the Irish receivers, either.

Pick: CJ Carr under 186.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)

In a similar vein, I’m taking Notre Dame’s team total under. Maybe a defensive score or a special teams touchdown ends up burning me here, but I would be pretty surprised to see the Irish offense be good enough to get over this total. Marcus Freeman likes to slow the game down even when he has a veteran QB — what’s he going to do with a redshirt freshman who hasn’t played before while he has an elite offensive line and a potential Heisman Trophy contender at running back? I think this is a relatively low-scoring game on both sides, but I’m expecting a particularly quiet night for the Notre Dame offense. 

Pick: Notre Dame team total under 25.5 points (-114 on FanDuel)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.