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O’Gara: 10 SEC stats that more people should be talking about heading into 2024
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Stats are great, but only if they support your narrative. As my guy Josh Pate would say, anything that disagrees with your opinion is clickbait.
Spot the lie. I cannot.
What I can spot are interesting SEC stats that should be a bigger conversation piece. I’m not saying you need to bring these up when you’re in the checkout line at the grocery store, but if I were bagging your groceries, I’d certainly turn it into a 10-minute conversation. Or at the very least, I’d want to turn it into a 10-minute conversation.
Fortunately for us, this isn’t the grocery store. You came to the right place to find 10 interesting SEC stats that aren’t being talked about enough heading into 2024:
1. The last time he was healthy, Rocket Sanders finished 9th in FBS in scrimmage yards
Last year was a lost season. Injuries got the better of Sanders at Arkansas, where the word “offense” was met with belly laughs. After transferring to South Carolina, there are still questions about who Sanders will be in 2024 because he battled injuries in the offseason, as well. But even if the Gamecocks’ offensive line isn’t as good as Arkansas’ was in 2022, remember that Sanders broke 65 tackles during that breakout season (via PFF). What’s to say a slightly lighter — and potentially healthier — Sanders can’t get back to being one of the SEC’s top playmakers?
2. Bobby Petrino improved Texas A&M’s offense by 10.5 points a game … with 3 quarterbacks starting multiple games
I’ll shout this until I’m blue in the face. Everyone wants to clown the Petrino-A&M experiment because Jimbo Fisher got fired in the midst of a 7-win season. But while that was the big takeaway, another takeaway should’ve been “you know that Petrino guy? He’s still got it.” A&M’s offense kept things afloat even after both Conner Weigman and Max Johnson went down with season-ending injuries. Third-stringer Jaylen Henderson gave LSU and Oklahoma State everything they could handle. Don’t be surprised if Petrino, alongside handpicked portal quarterback Taylen Green, gives a bunch of SEC defenses everything they can handle in 2024.
3. Mizzou’s defense had more players drafted (5) than Georgia’s (4)
That’s not even including the fact that Blake Baker and Kevin Peoples both left Mizzou for LSU. The Tigers lost a ton on defense. While Eli Drinkwitz believes there are areas for that group to improve — Mizzou surprisingly ranked No. 89 in FBS in 20-yard plays allowed — regression for that group feels inevitable even if Corey Batoon is significantly better than Steve Wilks was in 2021. It’s great that Mizzou’s offense should be one of the better units in America, and the schedule appears to be favorable. But it’s also perfectly fair to point to the defensive questions as a reason why Mizzou’s Playoff bid could come up short.
4. In the past 8 seasons, Jaylen Waddle is the SEC’s only true freshman wide receiver who had 800 receiving yards
That’s a reminder for mostly the state of Alabama, which has 5-star freshman receivers at Alabama (Ryan Williams) and Auburn (Cam Coleman). Waddle had the most prolific season by an SEC true freshman wide receiver in the past 8 years, and he averaged 56 receiving yards per contest in a 15-game season. Keep that in mind because while we all remember 2008 Julio Jones, 2012 Amari Cooper and even 2015 Calvin Ridley, the SEC has had more elite NFL receiver prospects than ever in recent memory, yet guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and DeVonta Smith all had quiet true freshmen seasons.
5. Josh Heupel is 2-7 against Tennessee’s 3 biggest rivals
I bring that up not to throw shade at Heupel. He’s 1 of the top 3 or 4 offensive minds in the sport and he’s exceeded expectations so far through 3 seasons at Tennessee. But that 2-7 mark vs. Alabama/Florida/Georgia is remembering because as long as those 3 are annual schedule staples in the new era of the SEC, Tennessee’s ceiling could be limited. Yeah, Nick Saban and his 16-1 record against the Vols as Alabama’s coach is gone. Let’s wait and see how Kalen DeBoer does before assuming that Tennessee will start dominating the Third Saturday in October. Let’s also see Josh Heupel end Tennessee’s 10-game losing streak in The Swamp before we pencil the Vols in to have a back-and-forth with the Gators. And Georgia? Um, how about Tennessee starts with taking care of the other 2 rivals first.
6. In 3 of the past 4 years, the first running back selected in the NFL Draft played in Steve Sarkisian’s offense
That is, Najee Harris in the 2021 NFL Draft, Bijan Robinson in 2023 and Jonathon Brooks in 2024. Why do I mention that? Well, some might’ve been surprised to see CJ Baxter get preseason All-SEC love. They might not have been paying attention to when the true freshman stepped in for an injured Brooks and had over 100 scrimmage yards in a Playoff game. Not many 18-year-olds can say that. The combination of Baxter and Jaydon Blue could yield an elite ground game for a Texas squad that returns 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.
7. Under Billy Napier, Florida’s defense allowed an average of 6.15 yards/play
I know what you’re thinking. Connor, how bad is 6.15 yards/play allowed? Well, in the past 2 seasons, that would’ve been good for No. 110 in FBS in 2023 and No. 116 in FBS in 2022. At a certain point, you can’t blame that on Dan Mullen’s recruiting. Princely Umanmielen, AKA Florida’s only All-SEC defensive player in the past 3 seasons, transferred to Ole Miss and called out Florida’s defensive teaching in the spring. Napier can talk all he wants about Florida being “on schedule,” but being that inefficient on defense was never part of the plan. That can’t continue with a schedule that features 6 foes that ranked in the top 25 in scoring in 2023.
8. Alabama has won 75% of the SEC titles in the 2020s
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but for all the talk of the dynasty dying during the late days of the Nick Saban era, the Tide still finished as the SEC champ in 3 of those past 4 seasons. Alabama is 32-3 in conference play during the 2020s, and all 3 losses came on the game’s final play. That 32-3 mark included an 8-0 SEC finish last year. That’s worth remembering because as everyone fills out their preseason schedule predictions and assumes that Alabama is no longer this unconquerable beast, don’t forget that we still need to actually see that play out.
9. Kirby Smart is trying to become the third coach in the past 70 years to win 3 national titles in a 4-year stretch
The only coaches in the past 70 years who won 3 titles in 4 years were Saban and Tom Osborne. Not even Bear Bryant accomplished that feat. In the post-integration world of college football, winning 3 titles in 4 years has been darn near impossible for everyone. Bryant, Pete Carroll, Barry Switzer, Darrell Royal, Duffy Daugherty and Bud Wilkinson all repeated as national champs during that stretch, but they couldn’t quite get title No. 3 during that 4-year stretch. Smart also repeated and couldn’t quite get title No. 3 in his first attempt to do so in a 4-year stretch. If he can get title No. 3 in his second attempt, he’d been in rare air among college football coaching greats.
10. The SEC won 14 New Year’s 6 bowls in the 2020s, compared to … 0 for the ACC
I say that because when the 12-team Playoff is finalized, we’re going to hear complaining about “SEC bias.” What we won’t hear is the fact that in the 2020s, the ACC is 0-5 with 5 double-digit losses in New Year’s 6 bowls (Playoff and non-Playoff). The SEC, on the other hand, has 14 New Year’s 6 Bowl victories in the 2020s. That’s more than the Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), Pac-12 (2) and ACC (0) combined. Sooner or later, “SEC bias” stops becoming a convenient narrative and starts becoming an unassailable argument.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
