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I’ve got good news and bad news.
Let’s start with the bad news. It’s always better to do that when presented with an option.
The bad news is that we’ve somehow reached Week 12. We have much less football left than we’ve already experienced, which is how time works. That’s terrifying.
But the good news is that we’ve got a 14-week regular season and the expanded Playoff. In addition to 3 more weeks of the regular season and 1 week of conference title games, we’re still more than 2 months away from saying “the season is officially over.”
That’s worth celebrating. So is the fact that we’ve got a Week 12 SEC slate that at least has a couple of games with Playoff implications.
Let’s dig into that:
No. 3 Texas vs. Arkansas — What a difference 3 years makes
Three years ago, a Year 1 Steve Sarkisian squad was run out of the building by Sam Pittman’s team. It was the coming-of-age moment for the Hogs that truly showed that they were past the Chad Morris era. Three years later, it’s fair to wonder if there will be a bit of a role reversal in Fayetteville. While the Hogs are no doormat, they did most recently lay down and allow a depleted Ole Miss offense to put up 63 points. That’s concerning to think about in a matchup against another elite schemer in Sarkisian.
Arkansas can shake up the SEC/Playoff picture if it can force some early Quinn Ewers turnovers and put the Longhorns on their heels in a hostile atmosphere. But that’s only if it’s a complete 180 from the Ole Miss showing, which is by no means a given.
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Auburn — Don’t get yourself fired, Hugh Freeze
What do I mean by that, you ask? Coming off a bye week, playing multiple quarterbacks (Payton Thorne is dealing with a shoulder injury) and losing at home to a Louisiana-Monroe team that was picked to finish last in the Sun Belt East division and hasn’t won a game in a month … that would knock Auburn out of bowl eligibility and it would perhaps knock Hugh Freeze out of a job. Any arguments there? Or can we all agree that this would be a lost cause and paying a $20.3 million buyout to Freeze would have enough momentum? Do we all agree? Good.
And for what it’s worth, that’s the only on-field result that would warrant that type of action this season. Given Auburn’s 2-4 home record, we shouldn’t rule that out.
Murray State vs. Kentucky — I have no idea what UK will do at QB
Brock Vandagriff left the Tennessee game with a head injury and we saw Rutgers transfer Gavin Wimsatt keep UK in the game late with a beautiful touchdown pass to Ja’Mori Maclin. Wimsatt has had packages all year, so if he’s the starter against Murray State, it wouldn’t be a shocker. But Mark Stoops suggested during the bye week that freshman Cutter Boley could get some run. It would seem like a good time to do that just to get him some live action. Of course, turning to Boley in a favorable matchup could also lead to an unrealistic expectation of his abilities.
Whatever UK does at the quarterback position, this should still be an ideal spot to get a win at Kroger Field for the first time since Sept. 21.
Mercer vs. No. 9 Alabama — It wouldn’t be surprising to see a good amount of downfield shots early
As in, I don’t expect to see Milroe getting a whole lot of designed runs even though that was a cheat code against LSU. Ideally, Kalen DeBoer would try and get the passing game going when it really hasn’t been at an elite level since the Georgia game. That’s not to say it’s been bad, but Milroe would love to get his favorite target going again. He and Ryan Williams have 8 passes of 30 yards this season, but 7 of them happened in September.
If the Tide are going to get to 10-2 and make a run in the Playoff, that downfield connection needs to be reestablished. Doing that against an FCS team — albeit a 9-1 FCS team — would make a ton of sense after the run-heavy LSU win.
No. 21 LSU vs. Florida — My guess is that DJ Lagway plays, but how does he play?
It felt like Lagway’s week of prep ahead of Texas was executed with LSU in mind. Florida won’t beat LSU without Lagway. But the dilemma is obvious if Lagway plays. In the last 5.5 quarters that LSU played, Blake Baker’s defense allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, 7 of which were from quarterbacks. Quarterbacks ran for 247 yards on 21 carries in that stretch. Mind you, there was a bye week between those dreadful performances by the LSU defense. In other words, stopping the quarterback run game is an issue. A major issue.
The issue for Florida isn’t Billy Napier fighting for his job. He doesn’t have to worry about that after the vote of confidence he got before the Texas game. The issue is that Lagway, coming off the hamstring injury, would be a lot more susceptible to injury if the quarterback run game is a prevalent part of the offense. The risk is that Florida’s 2025 outlook is directly tied to Lagway becoming an elite quarterback. Napier can’t afford to have him knocked out for the spring when he needs to be getting on the same page with Florida’s pass-catchers.
There’s a fine line for Napier to walk as he tries to find the answers to lead Florida past LSU for the first time since 2018.
No. 24 Mizzou vs. No. 23 South Carolina — Does Eli Drinkwitz still own South Carolina?
South Carolina hasn’t beaten Mizzou since 2018 when Drew Lock led the Tigers in a wet and wild game in Columbia. Beamer is 0-3 against Mizzou, and he’s been outscored 57-22 in the last 2 contests. Drinkwitz has had his number and he’s never lost to South Carolina in their 4 meetings since he arrived in 2020. Of course, those were very different South Carolina teams than the one that faced Mizzou during Beamer’s time in Columbia. It’s got a loaded defensive line and an emerging 1-2 punch with LaNorris Sellers and a healthy Rocket Sanders.
Mizzou, whether it returns Brady Cook or not, is a 2-touchdown underdog on the road for a reason. The Gamecocks have been the better team. If they can’t flex their muscles and finally stop the bleeding against Mizzou, it would be an extremely frustrating development for Beamer with the best team he’s had.
New Mexico State vs. No. 15 Texas A&M — A&M cannot afford another RB injury
First, it was promising sophomore Reuben Owens suffering a season-ending injury in fall camp. Most recently, it was potential All-SEC running back Le’Veon Moss suffering a season-ending injury in the South Carolina loss. Now, it’ll be the Amari Daniels-EJ Smith show the rest of the way. The good news for A&M is that it still has, along with Marcel Reed, a 3-headed rushing attack. The bad news for A&M is that it doesn’t have any margin for error left, both in the backfield and in the Playoff picture.
A brutal development would be watching any more injuries to the A&M backfield, especially in what should be a lopsided matchup on Saturday.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Georgia — If there was ever a time for Tennessee to get Georgia, this is it
Duh. Georgia has 2 regular-season losses for the second time in the last 8 years. The most recent occurrence was in 2020, when Tennessee was busy organizing a coup to get Jeremy Pruitt fired. Well, check that. That came after Pruitt got the Vols off to a promising 2-0 start … only to watch it go up in smoke after halftime in Athens. Last year in Knoxville, the Vols got off to a promising start vs. Georgia with a 75-yard touchdown run by Jaylen Wright on the first play from scrimmage … only to get outscored 38-3 the rest of the way.
But against this Georgia team, the question is whether that loaded Tennessee defense, which hasn’t allowed 20 points all year, can deliver the knockout blow and beat the Dawgs for the first time since 2016, AKA “The Dobbsnail Boot” game. Since the start of 2017, Kirby Smart is 44-1 at Sanford Stadium. Then again, UGA just ended its 52-game winning streak against non-Alabama teams because it was overwhelmed by Ole Miss’ defensive pressure in Oxford.
Can Tennessee dial up similar looks and hand UGA a third loss? It’s certainly possible after UGA crumbled with its back against the wall at Ole Miss.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
