One recent trend suggests the over is a solid bet in National Championship Game
Published:
Betting on the game tonight? If so and you are still looking for an edge on the bookies, you would be wise to study the habits of the game’s referees.
If you were unaware, the National Championship Game between Alabama and Georgia will be refed by a Big Ten crew. The head ref for tonight’s game is Dan Capron. Why is that important? The account behind CFBRefStats has some solid information on Capron that looms large for the upcoming game.
Capron’s games typically favor the over. The current line for the game as we approach kickoff is Alabama (-4) but the over/under is 46. If you are looking for your edge, choose the over heading into this game featuring two defensive teams.
According to their numbers, CFBRefStats has studied approximately 100 games refed by Capron:
https://twitter.com/cfbrefstats/status/950495852811911168
The average number of flags and yardage for his crew is normal:
https://twitter.com/cfbrefstats/status/950496827455016961
However, Capron’s games historical favor the over — most notably 9 of his last 11 games have gone over. That nugget on the actual over/under number (+/- 46) also suggests this game has a 59% chance to go over:
https://twitter.com/cfbrefstats/status/950497562808782849
There’s still time to get a bet in and if you are looking for a solid play, that over should be enticing.
A graduate of the University of Tennessee, Michael Wayne Bratton oversees the news coverage for Saturday Down South. Michael previously worked for FOX Sports and NFL.com
