Ad Disclosure
Paul Finebaum blasts FSU’s ranking, predicts disappointing 2024 season
By Andrew Olson
Published:
Paul Finebaum is not buying any Florida State 2024 hype.
The ESPN personality and SEC Network host was on First Take and asked to pick a top-10 team that will finish the 2024 season unranked. Finebaum did not hesitate to go with the Seminoles, who checked in at No. 10 in the preseason AP Top 25.
“Florida State. First of all, they have no business being in the top 10. They have a difficult schedule,” Finebaum said.
“Florida State has Miami and Notre Dame within a three-week period on the road. They end the season with Florida, which is a debatable team. I think they’re going to get caught in a run-of-the-mill ACC game this year which they did not encounter last year. They lost the guts of their defense. They have a quarterback who has certainly been around and remains a question mark.”
Finebaum being Finebaum, he couldn’t help but get in a dig at last year’s team.
“And I think they also have a hangover,” Finebaum added. “I think they used up too many tears crying about not getting into the playoffs and that may slow them down a little bit this year.”
ESPN’s Paul Finebaum believes #FSU will finish the 2024 season unranked.
“First of all they have no business being in the top 10.”
“I think they used up too many tears crying about not getting in the playoffs. That may slow them down a little bit this year.” #Noles pic.twitter.com/K2Unq9mf0t
— Logan B. Robinson (@LogansTwitty) August 13, 2024
Projections and expectations for FSU in 2024
Tuesday’s take is Finebaum at his best. He effectively stirred the pot and has college football fans talking, particularly the notorious #FSUTwitter army of Nole diehards. So, was Finebaum just trolling a favorite target, or did he make an informed pick?
No one can argue against the Seminoles lost a lot from the 2023 squad that went 12-0 in the regular season and defeated Louisville to win the ACC Championship Game. Florida State has 10 players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, the most since the height of the Jimbo Fisher era.
Back in February, ESPN’s Bill Connelly took a look at returning production. FSU ranked No. 83 among FBS teams with 58% returning production. The Florida State defense ranked No. 62 nationally with 60% of its returning production.
Connelly, the guru behind the popular SP+ metric, specifically cited the 2024 Noles when discussing how transfers figure into his formula for returning production:
Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else, that dampens the overall blow of your QB leaving significantly.
Take Florida State, for instance. The Seminoles lost Jordan Travis to expired eligibility and saw second-stringer Tate Rodemaker enter the transfer portal. That duo accounted for about 93% of FSU’s passing yards in 2023, but because Mike Norvell earned a commitment from Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei, his 2,638 passing yards are now plugged into both sides of the equation, and FSU’s “returns” 49% of its passing yardage.
Despite the notable losses, expectations are still high for Mike Norvell’s squad this fall. At DraftKings Sportsbook, FSU’s over/under win total for the 2024 regular season is set at 9.5 Both over and under are priced at -110 for a $110 wager to potentially win $100 and create a $210 payout.
ESPN’s computers aren’t quite as high on the Noles. ESPN’s FPI, a simulation-based predictive rating system, projects Florida State’s record as 8.8-3.6. The over/under and the FPI projection suggests FSU is expected to finish somewhere in the range of 8-4 and 10-2 in the regular season.
Even on the low end of the projection (8-4), Finebaum’s prediction would not be settled if FSU suffered 4 regular-season losses. In last season’s final AP poll, there were eight 4-loss teams: No. 16 Oklahoma State (10-4), No. 17 Tennessee (9-4), No. 18 Kansas State (9-4), No. 19 Louisville (10-4), No. 20 Clemson (9-4), No. 21 NC State (9-4), No. 23 Kansas (9-4) and No. 24 Iowa (10-4).
We’ll see how it all plays out over the next few months. If the Seminoles end the year ranked, plenty of fans will remind Finebaum of his preseason take.
21+ and present in NY, NJ, PA, CT, AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NC, NH, OH, OR, TN, VA, WV, WY. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
CLAIM OFFER
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
