Paul Skenes no longer betting favorite for NL Rookie of the Year
By Andrew Olson
Published:
Paul Skenes has had a stellar debut season in the big leagues. The betting markets, however, no longer favor him to be named the NL Rookie of the Year.
It’s a surprising turn. The Pittsburgh Pirates called Skenes, the No. 1 overall 2023 MLB Draft pick, up to the major on May 8. By June 25, Skenes had the top odds at BetMGM to win NL Rookie of the Year.
Just last week, BetMGM had Skenes at -1400 to win NL ROTY, meaning a $1400 wager was needed at the time to win $100. By Monday, Skenes was down to -200. Wednesday evening, Skenes checked in at +100 ($100 wager potentially wins $100 for $200 payout).
San Diego Padres standout Jackson Merrill has overtaken Skenes as the NL ROTY betting favorite at BetMGM. Merrill is now priced at -130 by the book.
Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year at #BetMGM
Last week
▪️ Paul Skenes -1400
▪️ Jackson Merrill +500Monday
▪️ Paul Skenes -200
▪️ Jackson Merrill +130Now
▪️ Paul Skenes +100
▪️ Jackson Merrill -130 pic.twitter.com/PZq2tkgdBb— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 22, 2024
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Why have Skenes’ odds shifted?
Skenes is having a fantastic rookie year. Over 98 innings in 16 starts, Skenes has a 2.30 ERA 0.97 WHIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 121-24.
Skenes’ record is 7-2. Pittsburgh’s record, however, is 59-67 on the season. If the MLB season ended today, the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves would be the three Wild Card teams. The Pirates are 8 games back in the face for a Wild Card sport, trailing the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds.
If the Pirates fall out of Wild Card contention, the organization may consider resting Skenes’ arm out of injury concern.
Ken Rosenthal, Stephen J. Nesbitt and Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently tackled the possibility of Skenes being shut down or having his innings limited going forward.
The Athletic article notes that Skenes finishing outside the top two of ROTY voting would keep him from being granted 1 year of service time. The report, citing sources, states that the Pirates do not plan to shut Skenes down despite that financial motivation to essentially keep him under team control for an extra year. The report states Skenes’ innings could be limited going forward.
The NL Rookie of the Year race just got a lot more interesting.
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Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
