Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)
Arizona State and Notre Dame fell off the map this weekend with surprising losses to unranked teams, while Florida State continues to pull rabbits out of a hat.
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The Seminoles, along with Oregon and Alabama, look like playoff teams right now, with a pair of Big 12 programs fighting with Mississippi State for the final spot. But we’ve still got a few weeks to shake the globe again and send those tiny fake snow chunks everywhere.
Scanning The Good Guys: The SEC entered Week 12 of the regular season with two strong contenders for the College Football Playoff.
Of course Mississippi State and Alabama played each other in Tuscaloosa. But the game went as well as possible for those still holding out hope for two SEC playoff teams, as the Crimson Tide controlled the game, but the Bulldogs got a back-door gambling cover with a late touchdown to finish with a respectable 25-20 loss.
If the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide win the Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl, respectively, on Thanksgiving weekend, the SEC will be in good shape, and Alabama will be a win against Missouri or Georgia from making the playoff.
Now for the terrorists.
THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE
Severe risk of terrorist attacks.
Florida State: To quote Proximo from “Gladiator,” one of the best movies of all-time: “Listen to me. Learn from me. I was not the best because I killed quickly. I was the best because the crowd loved me. Win the crowd and you will win your freedom.” Um, maybe someone ought to remind Jameis Winston that a) he’s got a good lawyer, and that conduct hearing at FSU probably won’t happen, therefore he has no reason to incite the masses to earn freedom, and b) no matter what Winston does, the mob isn’t backing him. Seriously, though, how many times have we seen the Seminoles toy with lesser opponents before coming back to win late?
Oregon: The Ducks got the weekend off to prepare for the worst team in the Pac-12, as Colorado visits Eugene, Ore., on Saturday. Plus, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon broke the single-game rushing record once held by LaDainian Tomlinson, enough to threaten QB Marcus Mariota for the Heisman Trophy. What’s more, FSU — and maybe even Alabama — could jump idle Oregon in the College Football Playoff poll come Tuesday night, and the Pac-12’s only other contender, Arizona State, lost to Oregon State. That should be plenty of motivation to keep this team from complacency.
TCU/Baylor: What could’ve been a nightmare turned out to be only a bad dream for Horned Frogs fans. Down 27-17 in the third quarter — to Kansas — TCU fumbled a kickoff deep in its own territory. The Jayhawks couldn’t capitalize, and TCU came back to win, 34-30. Crisis avoided. Sorta. Minnesota, the team’s only significant non-conference win, fell to Ohio State and could close the season with three consecutive losses, which would deal a heavy blow to TCU’s playoff hopes. Wins by Florida State and Alabama also stung. Baylor, meanwhile, hosts Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State to close out the season. Both of these teams could make the final selection extremely difficult for the committee by winning out.
THREAT LEVEL: HIGH
High risk of terrorist attacks.
Ohio State: Freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett has accounted for 38 touchdowns in 2014, a school record. He entered August as an unknown backup behind that “break in case of emergency” glass, with senior Braxton Miller expected to run the offense. But, due to injury, Barrett may become a Heisman finalist. The Buckeyes’ potential resume absorbed a dent Saturday when Wisconsin crushed Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were starting to look like a one-loss division champion, good fodder for Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Instead, the Buckeyes’ already-lacking resume must compete with teams from the SEC and Big-12 for the third and fourth playoff spots.
THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED
Significant risk of terrorist attacks.
UCLA: The Bruins suddenly control the stuffy Pac-12 South, which includes five different teams still competing for a division title with two weeks left. One of its losses came against Oregon, and UCLA would love to get revenge. A two-loss Pac-12 champion has no chance as of today to make the playoff, but strange things can happen the last few weeks of the season.
Minnestota: The Golden Gophers have three losses and aren’t even in the Top 25, much less a threat to enter the playoff conversation. But several teams, including Mississippi State, have to fear Minnesota. The team played Ohio State tough, and with road games remaining against a demoralized Nebraska and a surging Wisconsin, coach Jerry Kill’s team has a chance to finish 9-3 with losses to the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes. That makes Minnesota an indirect threat to Baylor and the second SEC team.
THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED
General risk of terrorist attacks.
Marshall: UAB, which may shut down its football team soon, and Western Kentucky, a team that lost 59-10 at Louisiana Tech, are all that stand between the Thundering Herd and a perfect regular season. The College Football Playoff committee hasn’t ranked a Group of Five team the last two polls, so we have no way of knowing which team is in line for the New Year’s Six bowl bid. But Marshall has handled the schedule put in front of it with flair. A 42-27 win at Miami (Ohio) on opening weekend is the closest QB Rakeem Cato and his teammates have come to a loss this year.
Colorado State: Jim McElwain agreed to a ridiculous buyout clause in exchange for a minimal raise before the season, not anticipating he’d otherwise be one of the most coveted Group of Five coaches in the country along with Justin Fuente (Memphis) and Mark Hudspeth (Louisiana-Lafayette). The Rams (9-1) are still counting on Utah State to knock off Boise State on the road, or else even an 11-1 finish may not be good enough to win the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference (as opposed to the West Division … redundancy, anyone?). But the team ranks No. 22 in the latest AP poll and could get a big-boy bowl game.
THREAT LEVEL: LOW
Low risk of terrorist attacks.
SMU: Oh, Mustangs. You’ve endeared us to you this year with your ineptitude. You found a way to do it again, coming within four seconds of winning your first game of 2014 after taking a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter against USF. You gave up an agonizing 21-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to get to 0-9, which somehow we knew you would. Why, exactly, would Mack Brown want to coach this team, even for $5 million per year? Every other FBS team has at least one win. Lucky for SMU, the team has three more chances: UCF, Houston and Connecticut.
Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are 3-12 against FBS opponents since Kliff Kingsbury launched his head coaching career with a magical 7-0 start. The team held a 21-7 third-quarter lead against Oklahoma, playing without Trevor Knight, on Saturday, then proceeded to give up 35 second-half points and get blown off the field (a late Texas Tech touchdown made the final 42-30).
Kent State: The Golden Flashes somehow crushed Army, 39-17, on Oct. 18, or else the team’s offense would be right with SMU at the bottom of the NCAA in scoring. Kent State did get within 10 points of MAC East champion Bowling Green — on the road — the team’s sixth loss by 10 points or less. Still, that 1-9 record is miserable.
Idaho: A 1-9 record is bad enough, but the Vandals lost to previously-hapless Troy by 17 points Saturday. Georgia State’s still holding down the bottom spot in the Sun Belt Conference standings, but a game against Appalachian State should force the team to end the season 1-10. (Bad weather cancelled an early-season game against Florida. Thank goodness neither team wanted to reschedule.)
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
