College football will be played later this month.
That feels good to write. And as sure as college football will be played, you can bet upsets will be coming in bunches — particularly early in the season when there’s a lot more uncertainty about most FBS teams.
This story will seek to predict upsets for Week 1 by looking for value in the market.
College football predictions: Week 1 upset picks
With that in mind, here are 5 upset predictions based on college football betting lines for Week 1 of the 2025 season:
Southern Miss over Mississippi State
Money line: Southern Miss +375 (via BetMGM)
This feels like an awful spot for Jeff Lebby and Mississippi State. Not only do you have to play a difficult in-state foe that your fan base expects you to beat in Week 1, but you have to do so on the road in Hattiesburg.
Southern Miss was not good in 2024, but looks can be deceiving in the transfer portal era. This is a Golden Eagles program that hired former Marshall coach Charles Huff in the offseason. Huff brought in upwards of 50 transfers after taking the job, including more than 20 from last year’s Marshall team that won the Sun Belt. Marshall finished the 2024 season ranked 59th in ESPN’s SP+ rating — 29 spots higher than Mississippi State. Given the continuity Huff and Co. are bringing to Southern Miss, I’m comfortable weighing Marshall’s priors pretty heavily when evaluating what the Golden Eagles will look like this year.
The Bulldogs will hope Blake Shapen is healthy this year, and I do think picking up running back transfer Fluff Bothwell out of the portal was a shrewd addition. But Mississippi State was probably the worst power-conference team in the country last season with the possible exception of Purdue. I’m not high enough on Lebby as a coach to believe that Mississippi State’s 2025 transfer haul will be enough to turn things around.
At +375, I see a ton of value on the Golden Eagles at home in Week 1.
Syracuse over Tennessee
Money line: Syracuse +460 (via FanDuel)
First thing’s first, it should be noted this game will be played at a neutral site in Atlanta. I’m expecting an overwhelmingly pro-Tennessee crowd, so this could ultimately feel like a Vols home game. But I just think this number is too big given what we know about this Tennessee team.
Quarterback is a massive question, as is offensive line. The receiver room is unproven (and is dealing with multiple injuries during fall camp) as well. Last year’s offense was propped up by Dylan Sampson, but his down-to-down efficiency wasn’t anything special. Tennessee has struggled to create explosive plays over the past 2 years since Alex Golesh and Hendon Hooker moved on. Will the offense be any better with Joey Aguilar or Jake Merklinger under center? Possibly, but in Week 1, I don’t expect the Vols to be firing on all cylinders.
Syracuse has 2 very interesting quarterback options in Steve Angeli and Rickie Collins. Fran Brown knows what a win over Tennessee would mean for his Syracuse program — I suspect he’s spent a disproportionate amount of time this offseason on preparing for the Vols. He also has some experience going up against Josh Heupel’s offense — he was Georgia’s DB coach in 2022 and 2023.
I’d be interested in the under for this game as well — I think Tennessee’s defense will be dominant but the offense has a very low floor, even against a Syracuse team that struggled on defense last season. If this does become a low-scoring affair, the Orange are certainly live to pull off the upset at +460.
Georgia Southern over Fresno State
Money line: Georgia Southern +114 (via DraftKings)
This pick may seem a bit obscure, but it’s following a trend I wrote about entering the 2024 season. Teams who play in Week 0 typically under-perform in their Week 1 contests. Since 2015, teams who are playing their first game of the season with a rest advantage are 41-20 straight up and 38-23 against the spread. Underdogs in this spot are 9-9 straight up and 13-5 ATS over the same span.
The idea behind this trend is pretty simple. The team who doesn’t play in Week 1 is more well-rested than its opponent and also has 60 minutes worth of relevant game tape to use in scouting and game-planning in the lead-up to the contest.
That brings us to Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State. Fresno will face a pretty good Kansas team in Week 0 before turning its attention to Georgia Southern in Week 1. Georgia Southern is a small road underdog in this game. The Eagles are also top-50 in ESPN’s returning production metric (and have particularly strong numbers on offense). Meanwhile, Fresno ranks outside of the top 100 in returning production on both sides of the ball.
Toledo over Kentucky
Money line: Toledo +280 (via BetMGM)
We have some recent history with Toledo winning on the road in the SEC. The Rockets did just that a year ago when they upset Mississippi State in dominant fashion. Toledo has an impressive roster coming back — it ranks 13th in offensive returning production and 34th overall, per ESPN’s formula.
This is also a bet against the Mark Stoops era moving forward. Stoops did amazing work in Lexington and should rightfully be considered one of the best coaches in program history. But the vibes may have reached unrecoverable levels this summer when Vince Marrow left for a spot in Louisville’s front office.
The Wildcats bottomed out last season but were still favored in 6 games. The problem is they only won 3 of them and beat the number just twice. I’m also not a big believer in new Kentucky quarterback Zach Calzada, who hasn’t attempted an FBS pass since 2021. Toledo won last season in Starkville as a double-digit underdog and I think it could do the same thing again in Lexington this year.
Kennesaw State over Wake Forest
Money line: Kennesaw State +650 (via BetMGM)
This fits another trend that’s worth considering. Since the start of the 2021 season, teams who are between +600 and +750 on the money line are 4-6 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. In theory, upsets of this caliber should be happening less than 15% of the time (the win rate is 9.6% across all weeks over the same time span). Perhaps it’s a small sample size, but I think this trend speaks to the idea that sometimes the transfer portal can muddy the waters of who is good early in a season. Recent victims of this trend include Florida State in 2024 (Boston College), TCU in 2023 (Colorado) and Georgia Tech in 2021 (Northern Illinois).
Kennesaw State went 2-10 in its first FBS season a year ago, but the Owls went 5-6 against the spread in FBS games and pulled off a big upset late in the year against Florida International. Despite hiring a new head coach this offseason, Kennesaw ranks 5th in ESPN’s returning production metric — including a No. 1 ranking for defensive production. There are some reasons to believe Kennesaw could make a pretty big step forward next season.
Wake Forest also has a new coach with Jake Dickert taking over for Dave Clawson. I think Dickert is a pretty good coach but he’s been prone to some bad losses early in his career. In just 3 seasons at Washington State, Dickert suffered 4 outright losses as a double-digit favorite. The FBS average win rate in that spot is over 86% since the start of the 2022 season, but Dickert is just 5-4.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
