Week 12 of the college football season is here.
As always, this piece will seek to predict 5 upsets for this week’s college football slate. Last week was a good one — we went 3-2, hitting on Wake Forest (+210), Tulane (+195) and Nebraska (+105). That equates to +2.11 units for the week.
Upset picks Week 12
Here are 5 upset picks for this weekend:
Arkansas over LSU
I think LSU gave its best effort last week in a 20-9 loss to Alabama. The Tigers’ defense was good in that game, but the offense continues to struggle. Michael Van Buren is expected to make his first start of the year on Saturday, which should inject a significant amount of variance into this game. Arkansas is coming off of a bye and really should have won 2 weeks ago against Mississippi State. The Razorbacks lost that game due to having a record 193 penalty yards, which was very uncharacteristic. I think Arkansas could get its first SEC win of the season on Saturday.
Pick: Arkansas +180 (via BetMGM)
Oklahoma over Alabama
Oklahoma is off a bye and will be playing an Alabama team that hasn’t looked right on offense for several weeks. The Crimson Tide haven’t had a game with above-average EPA-per-play outputs on offense since Oct. 18. The Sooners have one of the best defenses in the entire country and they generate pressure at-will — something Ty Simpson has struggled with this season. I think Alabama should be favored, but the current price is way too high.
Pick: Oklahoma +180 (via bet365)
Mississippi State over Mizzou
Mississippi State let go of the rope a little bit last week against Georgia. The Bulldogs have been competitive in every other game this season and need 1 more win to secure bowl eligibility for the first time under Jeff Lebby. I think you’re getting a pretty good price to back Mississippi State on the road against a Mizzou team that will be playing a third-string quarterback. The Tigers have little to play for at this point in the season and coach Eli Drinkwitz acknowledged as much by saying the locker room was “devastated” after the Texas A&M loss.
Pick: Mississippi State +225 (via DraftKings)
Virginia over Duke
I faded both of these teams last week and I’m back again to bet against the Blue Devils. I don’t think Duke should be favored by almost a touchdown against any semi-competitive ACC team. We’ve seen Duke play really bad football at times this season. Virginia was comically overrated last week and is still not a top-25 team, but I think we see a better effort from the Cavaliers this week. I’m not too concerned about the Chandler Morris injury — I doubt there’s a massive difference between Morris and backup Daniel Kaelin. I suspect the current number reflects an expectation that it will be Kaelin under center. If that’s true and Morris is able to go, this price is much better than what we’ll see on game day.
Pick: Virginia +195 (via DraftKings)
Michigan State over Penn State
Everyone seems to be impressed with Penn State again after the Nittany Lions almost beat Indiana on Saturday. I’m not quite there. I think it’s possible Penn State gave its best effort of the season against the Hoosiers and we might not see that again this year. Michigan State is 3-6 on the season and have to win out to make a bowl. I think the Spartans will be highly motivated to make a statement against a Penn State program that has dominated this series recently (PSU has won 4 of the last 5). Michigan State should also be energized following the emergence of quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who threw for 311 yards on 28 attempts last time out. Michigan State is also coming out of an idle week while Penn State has to scrape itself off the pavement following yet another heart-breaking loss.
Pick: Michigan State +235 (via bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
