Welcome to Week 2 of the 2025 college football season.
Week 1 was very chalky — underdogs went just 6-32 straight up in FBS vs. FBS games.
Unfortunately, we went 0-for-5 on searching for upsets in Week 1 — although Kennesaw State came very close to cashing as a +650 dog. But close won’t cut it, so we press on in search of money line darlings.
College football upset predictions for Week 2
Here are 5 upset picks for Week 2:
Michigan over Oklahoma
Both Michigan and Oklahoma were a bit underwhelming in their season-openers, but I like more of what I’m seeing with the Wolverines. Bryce Underwood passed his first test with flying colors and transfer running back Justice Haynes ran the ball at almost 10 yards per clip. That’ll play.
Conversely, the Sooners really struggled to move the ball on the ground against Illinois State. OU had a negative EPA-per-play on non-explosive rush attempts, per Game on Paper. Quarterback John Mateer was good in his debut, but he doesn’t have a great track record against power-conference opponents. Michigan is certainly capable of forcing him into some bad decisions.
Injuries to OU’s offensive line also remain a factor, as does the status of running back Jaydn Ott. I expect Ott to play much more against Michigan than he did vs. Illinois State (2 snaps, per PFF) but it’s concerning he seems to be something less than 100% healthy.Â
I would expect this to be much closer to a coin flip than it’s currently being bet as.
Pick: Michigan +175 on Fanatics
South Alabama over Tulane
Tulane got a feel-good win against Northwestern in Week 1. It was an emotional victory for the Green Wave as the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina happened late last week. Now Tulane has to regroup and face South Alabama on Saturday night on the road. To make this spot even more difficult for Tulane, it will face its former quarterback (Darian Mensah) when Duke comes to town in Week 3.
I have some concerns about Tulane despite the win over Northwestern. For one, quarterback Jake Retzlaff was extremely inefficient despite the win. He averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt and posted a dead-end throw rate of 67.7% — one of the worst marks of any FBS quarterback so far this year. Retzlaff was decent at BYU last year, but he arrived at Tulane very late in the offseason so it’s reasonable to expect there may be an adjustment period before he finds success.
The market may be a bit down on South Alabama after it lost quarterback Gio Lopez in the transfer portal this offseason. But Lopez sure didn’t look anything special in his North Carolina debut on Monday night.
Pick: South Alabama +330 on DraftKings
Virginia over NC State
Virginia had one of the more eye-opening Week 1 performances in the country. The Cavaliers blasted Coastal Carolina 49-7 and the advanced stats back up that dominant result. Virginia out-gained Coastal by almost 2 yards per play on average. Chandler Morris isn’t perfect, but he’s a veteran quarterback in a college football landscape where most of the COVID-era passers have finally aged out of college football.
UVA now gets to face an NC State team that really struggled on defense in its opener against East Carolina. The Pirates managed 8.72 yards per drop back according to Game on Paper, which is good enough for the 84th percentile. ECU went just 1-of-4 on fourth down or that game maybe would have had a different result.
Despite those Week 1 struggles, NC State is a small favorite at home this weekend against the Cavaliers. This is not a spot NC State has excelled in under Dave Doeren. Since 2013, the Wolfpack are just 3-9 against the spread and only 5-4 straight up as a favorite between -105 and -200. It happened twice last season (against Duke and Wake Forest) and NC State lost outright in both games.
Pick: Virginia +125 on BetMGM
Baylor over SMU
Baylor got torn up by Jackson Arnold and Auburn’s ground game in Week 1, there’s no sugarcoating that. But this is a Bears team that has an excellent quarterback in Sawyer Robertson and a defensive-minded head coach in Dave Aranda who has a significant track record.
Kevin Jennings is certainly capable of hurting Baylor with his legs, but he’s not as physical of a runner as Arnold is. Jennings also only had 1 FBS game last season where he rushed for more than 50 yards. He’d much rather do damage through the air, which I think will be difficult against this Baylor defense.
I like the idea of buying in on a Baylor team who probably deserved better than the result it got against Auburn last week. Assuming the Bears don’t go 5-of-15 on third down again, I think they’ll bounce back vs. SMU.
Pick: Baylor +120 on BetMGM
Western Kentucky over Toledo
Western Kentucky has already played twice, so we have a bit more data on the Hilltoppers. Quarterback Maverick McIvor has been excellent so far in wins over Sam Houston State and Northern Alabama. He’s averaging over 8 yards per attempt and has 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Toledo will be a step up in competition, but the Rockets failed to get much done offensively against a pretty pedestrian Kentucky team in Week 1. That was a winnable game for Toledo but it came away with a negative EPA-per-play and just a 32% success rate, per Game on Paper. Toledo’s defense was more impressive and is the strength of this team.
With that being said, I think Western Kentucky’s offense is much more viable than what the Wildcats are working with in Lexington. This game will be decided by either Western Kentucky’s offense or Toledo’s defense separating as the best overall unit in this matchup. Toledo is a significant home favorite, but I think WKU is live to win outright.
Pick: Western Kentucky +220 on DraftKings
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
