Spring ball is still to come, but we can already make some fairly-educated guesses about who will start at quarterback for each of the SEC’s 16 programs in 2026.
There’s no spring transfer portal period this year, so rosters should be finalized — as much as they can be in today’s college football — ahead of spring practice.
SEC starting quarterback predictions
For this exercise, I’m going to divide the SEC into 3 groups based on a number of factors. There are 6 incumbent quarterbacks in the SEC entering this season — players who started the majority of games for their teams in 2025 and figure to do so again in 2026.
Then there are the high-profile transfer quarterbacks who are clearly in line to be the starter. There are 4 programs who fit into this category this year.
The remaining 6 SEC teams fall into the “toss-up” tier, albeit to varying degrees of uncertainty.
The Incumbents
Here’s a look at the incumbents:
Georgia: Gunner Stockton
Gunner Stockton led Georgia to an SEC Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance in his first season as starting quarterback. He also finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting and will enter the 2026 season as one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC.
Ole Miss: Trinidad Chambliss
While I expect Trinidad Chambliss to win his case against the NCAA, there’s still a lot of uncertainty on that front. If Chambliss does, in fact, return to Oxford next season, the Rebels will have one of the nation’s top quarterbacks under center in 2026. Chambliss posted a 22-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio this season.
Oklahoma: John Mateer
John Mateer got off to a good start with the Sooners last year, but struggled in SEC play. Mateer finished 13th among qualifiers in passer efficiency rating, ahead of only DJ Lagway and Jackson Arnold. Oklahoma made the CFP despite his struggles, but the Sooners will be hoping for a big step forward in 2026.
South Carolina: LaNorris Sellers
LaNorris Sellers entered last season with sky-high expectations and largely fell short. However, much of his shortcomings had to do with a failed offensive coordinator hire and poor offensive line play. South Carolina hopes it has fixed those issues this offseason, potentially paving the way for a big 2026 with Sellers leading the charge.
Texas: Arch Manning
Arch Manning didn’t quite live up to expectations this past season but he ended up having a better year than many anticipated after a slow September. Manning is set to enter 2026 as the Heisman Trophy odds leader (per Kalshi) and will have a great chance to be picked No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Texas A&M: Marcel Reed
Marcel Reed took a big step forward in 2026, helping the Aggies to an 11-0 start before things fell apart down the stretch. Reed was in an exclusive group of quarterbacks who threw 25 touchdown passes and rushed for 400+ yards. He’ll look to cut down on the turnovers in 2026, as he threw 12 picks this past season — including 4 in losses to Texas and Miami at the end of the season.
Here’s a look at the 2025 stats for all of the SEC’s incumbents, sorted by passer efficiency rating:
The obvious transfers
Let’s break down this category:
Auburn: Byrum Brown
Alex Golesh brought just about everyone from 2025 South Florida to the Plains this offseason, and that includes Byrum Brown. He’s as talented of a runner as you’ll ever see at the quarterback position, but questions about his passing effectiveness at the SEC level will persist. On the bright side: Continuity certainly won’t be an issue in 2026.
Kentucky: Kenny Minchey
Perhaps Kenny Minchey isn’t quite a slam-dunk to start given his lack of experience, but I think this is a reasonable place to slot him in. Minchey was involved in a very close QB battle with CJ Carr last offseason, and Carr now looks like one of the best returning quarterbacks in the country. That doesn’t mean Minchey is just as good, but it’s a solid indicator. Another indicator of how Kentucky feels about Minchey is that it went to great lengths to pry him away from his Nebraska commitment. Minchey will head into next season with a wide range of potential outcomes, but he’ll almost certainly be the starter for Week 1.
LSU: Sam Leavitt
It took a big effort from Lane Kiffin and Co., but LSU secured former Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt to run the show in 2026. Scouts consistently have rated Leavitt as among the best transfer quarterbacks for this cycle, but his stats took a big dip in 2025. Both Leavitt and his top receiver, Jordyn Tyson, battled injuries throughout the year. LSU will be hoping Leavitt regains the form that allowed him to lead ASU to the CFP in 2024.
Mizzou: Austin Simmons
Like Minchey, Austin Simmons makes this list without much game experience. Simmons began the 2025 season as Ole Miss‘s starter but lost the job due to injury and never regained it due to Trinidad Chambliss’s lights-out play. Still, Simmons is a projectable 6-foot-4 and should be a big upgrade over Beau Pribula as a passer. Interceptions have been an issue for Simmons but he’s been effective at pushing the ball downfield, which was a major weakness for Mizzou this past fall.
The toss-ups
Alright, now we get into the good stuff. Let’s make some predictions:
Alabama: Keelon Russell
There was a time last offseason when I expected Austin Mack to beat out Ty Simpson for the starting job. But when that didn’t happen — and when Mack didn’t get a serious look even as Simpson struggled with health in November — it significantly lowered the odds that Mack would ever be Alabama’s Plan A at quarterback.
Mack certainly has the experience edge in terms of practice time under Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb, but that’s just about his only advantage. He has 35 career pass attempts in 3 years of college football. He’s yet to take a single high-leverage rep, the closest being his 16 pass attempts in Alabama’s embarrassing 38-3 loss to Indiana in the CFP.
Russell now has a year in the system and is a former 5-star recruit. He was the No. 2 overall player in the entire country for the class of 2025, per the 247Sports composite rankings. I believe Alabama intends to give Russell every opportunity to win this job and spend the next 2 years as the Tide’s starter before he becomes draft-eligible in 2028.
Arkansas: AJ Hill
Arkansas could have the steepest quarterback drop-off of any SEC team in 2026. Taylen Green produced at an elite level, and there are significant question marks with the Razorbacks’ offense with him no longer running the show. KJ Jackson is probably the leader in the clubhouse going into spring ball, as he was Green’s backup last season and completed 33-of-54 passes for 444 yards.
But I’m predicting AJ Hill to win this job. Hill signed with Memphis as a 4-star recruit in the class of 2025 and then followed Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas this January. Hill was a massive signing for Memphis and I suspect that Silverfield has long planned to have him running his offense. Hill took official visits to programs like Texas A&M and Florida before signing with Memphis out of high school. Angelo State transfer Braeden Fuller could get into the mix as well, but I think the signs point toward Hill getting every opportunity to win this job.
Florida: Aaron Philo
Perhaps Florida belongs in the “obvious transfer” tier, but I’m not prepared to give Aaron Philo the job that easily. Philo was a backup for Haynes King over the past couple of years, but actually got a decent amount of playing time when King was banged up. He has 102 pass attempts already, although most of that playing time came in 2024. In 2025, Philo’s only passes came against Gardner-Webb.
Challenging Philo for the starting job will be Tramell Jones, who was 21-of-35 for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns this season in relief of DJ Lagway. Philo is certainly the favorite going into spring ball, but I wouldn’t completely rule out a surprise bid from Jones to earn the starting job.
Mississippi State: Kamario Taylor
Kamario Taylor started for Mississippi State in its last couple games of the season and played well enough to be the heavy favorite to win this job. A dual-threat QB, Taylor was the No. 11 overall RB in the country for the class of 2025, per the 247Sports composite rankings. Taylor will have competition from veteran journeyman AJ Swann and freshman Brodie McWhorter, but this is his job to lose.
Tennessee: Faizon Brandon
This is the most complicated race to analyze at this juncture. That’s because Joey Aguilar, originally a 2019 recruit who began his career at the JUCO level, is suing the NCAA for eligibility in 2026. I suspect his odds are worse than Trinidad Chambliss’s due to his 5-year clock being long expired, so I have the Vols in the “toss-up” tier rather than picking Aguilar as an incumbent. Obviously, if Aguilar does win his lawsuit, he will start for Tennessee in 2026.
If not? Things could get rather speculative in a hurry. Tennessee has George MacIntrye, a 2025 high school recruit, and Faizon Brandon, a 2026 high school recruit, ready to compete for the job. I’m giving the nod to Brandon here strictly based on pedigree and upside, but this is a competition that could go either way. Colorado transfer Ryan Staub should also be mentioned, although I think he’s more likely to serve as a backup in Josh Heupel’s QB room.
Vanderbilt: Jared Curtis
A longtime Georgia commit, 5-star quarterback Jared Curtis decided to stay in Nashville and sign with Vanderbilt. It seems unlikely that decision would have come with anything less than an assurance that Curtis would be given every opportunity to win the starting job for Vandy in 2026. The Commodores have to replace arguably the best quarterback in school history in Diego Pavia, but they’ll be trying to do that with the program’s highest-rated recruit ever. It could be worse!
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
