SEC Week 11 provided some clarify, some confusion, and plenty of entertaining moments. But as we try to unpack things, here’s where the regular season looks likely to end up.
Just a note here– the entries include the current records and then the projected records of each team (every year, there are a few people who think it’s the SEC record and predicted record, but it isn’t).
Let’s get started, shall we?
Alabama (8-1, 11-1)
Alabama ground out a taking-care-of-business win over the slumping LSU Tigers. Alabama might need to be a little punchier on offense to outlast Oklahoma, but it’s a home game and still represents the last real challenge of the regular season for the Tide.
Arkansas (2-7, 2-10)
Arkansas had the week off, but it doesn’t help the long-term projection here. LSU and Texas on the road seem like big asks, and while Missouri is a home game, the Tigers will certainly have more on the line than the Hogs.
Auburn (4-6, 5-7)
Auburn had one last crack at bowl eligibility, but the Tigers found a way to lose. That’s 5 one-score losses on the year. Mercer should be an easy win, but Alabama won’t be. After the tough loss to Vandy, it’s really on to contemplating who’s next up on the Plains as head coach.
Florida (3-6, 3-9)
Florida certainly had a shift here. If you lose by 31 points to Kentucky, you’re not going to beat Ole Miss or Tennessee. The Florida State game should be competitive, but will the Gators be mentally checked out by then? Frankly, they might already be there.
Georgia (8-1, 11-1)
Georgia put together a complete win, taking State’s opening TD drive and then responding with the next 38 points. The Dawgs remain solid favorites for the remainder of the regular season. Texas or Tech are certainly capable of putting up a fight, but Georgia seems to be rounding into form at the right time.
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Kentucky (4-5, 5-7)
Kentucky has the path now to salvage the season. Take care of business against FCS Tennessee Tech and then steal a road game at 2 remarkably geographically close foes in Vandy and Louisville. Both are better than Kentucky, but either is capable of an ugly loss, particularly if Kentucky’s defense continues to be this stout. It’s not quite likely enough to forecast it, but the Wildcats have gone from a team with no hope to having a legitimate postseason path.
LSU (5-4, 7-5)
LSU basically is who we thought it was — a massive disappointment on offense. The Tigers will take care of Arkansas and WKU, and take a loss at Oklahoma to end up 7-5 and in some lower-tier bowl that many of their best players will skip. Brutal season.
Ole Miss (9-1, 11-1)
Ole Miss has a very simple path ahead. Florida and Mississippi State probably couldn’t put together a combined squad that would give the Rebels much trouble. Will the late slump in competition hurt Ole Miss heading into the postseason? It’s a good problem to have.
Mississippi State (5-5, 5-7)
Mississippi State basically seems to have its postseason hopes come down to a game at Missouri. That’s winnable, but State is very much in line with Kentucky here — a team that has a viable postseason path, but not one that’s so comfortable as to make predicting its fulfillment any sort of good idea.
Missouri (6-3, 8-4)
Mizzou definitely felt the loss of Beau Pribula and never really had a shot at the Aggies. Oklahoma looks like a loss, but State and Arkansas are both beatable. Of the 3, the Mississippi State game is the closest to being a toss up, but we’ll stick with 8-4 for Mizzou.
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Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3)
Oklahoma had a week off. The Sooners’ battle with Alabama is a potentially season-defining moment. With A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss all pretty safe to lock in for the CFP, the question becomes whether there’s room for a fifth SEC team. If so, the Sooners, Texas, and Vandy have the best claims on it. Take of business against Missouri and LSU in home games and there’s still a reason to hope.
South Carolina (3-6, 5-7)
South Carolina had a week off, but still seems unlikely to find the offensive firepower to outlast Texas A&M. In fact, given the Aggies’ pass rush, it could get brutal. Coastal Carolina and Clemson are still plausible enough wins, but Carolina has to grab all 3 games to reach a bowl.
Tennessee (6-3, 9-3)
Tennessee has a faint CFP path. Take care of business against New Mexico State and Florida and then take down Vandy in the season finale. The problem is that still leaves Tennessee potentially behind Texas and or Oklahoma in the pecking order. The loss to Oklahoma head-to-head is hard to overcome.
Texas (7-2, 8-4)
Texas had a week off, but nothing changes the schedule ahead with Georgia away and A&M at home. Assuming a win over Arkansas, those 2 games tell the tale, and at this point, losses in both remains the most likely path.
Texas A&M (9-0, 12-0)
Texas A&M blasted Missouri on the road and shouldn’t have any issues at home against South Carolina or Samford. That leaves only Texas on the road standing in the way of a perfect SEC slate. A&M would still make the Playoff regardless, but at the moment, it seems likely to run the table heading into the SEC title game.
Vanderbilt (8-2, 9-3)
Vanderbilt served notice of how narrow its margin is in this season. Sure, Vandy is 8-2 and will be a solid favorite at home against Kentucky… and Tennessee on the road isn’t exactly unbeatable. But both games could also become losses. We’ll split the difference for now, and a loss to Tennessee would probably knock Vandy out of the CFP.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
