Even with 4 teams taking the week off, there was plenty going on in the SEC in Week 4.
It wasn’t a week full of unexpected results (unlike the ACC, for instance), but with a little more information comes a little more clarity on the league’s situation. Here’s where we see the squads of the SEC ending the regular season.
Note that below are the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (2-1, 8-4)
We’ll stay put on Alabama. As things stand, Georgia and Missouri are the toughest road challenges, with Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma all having to play at Alabama. That feels like a 2-3 slate right now, which is no offense to the Tide. It probably takes a 3-2 run in those games to be in the CFP discussion and if I’m Kalen DeBoer, I’d take that in a New York minute.
Arkansas (2-2, 4-8)
We didn’t have Arkansas Razorbacks reaching 6 wins even before they lost to Memphis. After that loss, finding 4 more wins here takes some hardcore optimism. Notre Dame next week could change everything just as suddenly as this ugly Memphis loss. But until that happens, we’re downgrading even the humble landing where we had Arkansas.
Auburn (3-1, 8-4)
Losing to Oklahoma wasn’t exactly shocking, but it was a bit disappointing for Auburn, In the big picture, the Tigers remain who we thought they were — a team that’ll pick up some solid wins and end up probably a game shy of being in the CFP discussion. That’s a definite improvement from a year ago, even if it’s not quite where Auburn wants to be.
Florida (1-3, 4-8)
Billy Napier seems to have finally run out of miracles. Will he survive Florida’s week off? DJ Lagway has to be one of the most historically misused QBs ever. Between his career and Anthony Richardson’s, can we call Napier the anti-QB whisperer? The QB screamer maybe? In any case, it hasn’t worked and off week followed by playing a solidifying Texas squad is not good.
Georgia (3-0, 10-2)
Georgia had the week off and we won’t move them from there. The Alabama game feels much more significant for the Tide than it does for the Bulldogs. Georgia’s remaining schedule sets up pretty well for what starts to feel like an inevitable CFP run.
Kentucky (2-1, 4-8)
Kentucky was off, which probably makes for one of the happier weeks of the season for Big Blue Nation. Any chance at a positive outcome for the season needs a road win at South Carolina this coming week. Otherwise, it gets rough to find more than 2 wins on the remaining slate for the Wildcats (and 2 might get difficult).
LSU (4-0, 9-3)
LSU looks to be pulling things together. There’s still a tough road slate ahead with Ole Miss, Vandy, Alabama, and Oklahoma. If the Tigers handle Ole Miss next week in Oxford, they probably go up to a 10-2 prediction. Either way, they look likely to end up where they need to be for the CFP, which is all we’re really thinking about these days.
Ole Miss (4-0, 9-3)
Ole Miss finally opened up a gallon drum of beatdown on a decent team and the fighting Lane Kiffins seem to be living up to the FPI numbers that ESPN’s computers have been spitting. LSU ends September in Oxford and then road games at Georgia and Oklahoma come up next month. Whoever wins this weekend is getting the bump to 10-2. But whoever loses still looks a lot like a CFP team.
Mississippi State (4-0, 5-7)
Mississippi State took care of business and finished the nonconference slate well. The games just don’t stack up well in conference play. For the moment, we’ll hold at 5 wins, but maybe the struggles of Arkansas make that game on Nov. 1 one to watch for a possible victory to nab.
Missouri (4-0, 9-3)
Mizzou has played a soft schedule and doesn’t leave home until the back half of October. But the Tigers are a heck of a football team. Running the ball down the throat of South Carolina to seal the win was certainly exactly what the Tigers needed to show. We’ll stick at 9-3 because we still haven’t seen Missouri on the road, and games at Auburn, Vandy, and Oklahoma all figure to be tough, and that final game against Arkansas is eternally unpredictable.
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Oklahoma (4-0, 8-4)
Oklahoma is off to an amazing start, but the prediction isn’t going to move quite yet. Road games at Tennessee and Alabama will be tough and Oklahoma wasn’t lucky enough to draw Kentucky, Mississippi State, or Arkansas on the schedule. A bye week and an easy win over Kent State will keep momentum high, but that Texas game on Oct. 11 looks enormous for both teams.
South Carolina (2-2, 6-6)
South Carolina really didn’t need 2 September losses with road games at LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M still upcoming. Add in home games with Oklahoma and Alabama and 6-6 feels pretty charitable. Carolina absolutely cannot lose to Kentucky on Saturday and hope to have any kind of season.
Tennessee (3-1, 10-2)
Tennessee dominated easily over UAB, as was expected and all but guaranteed. Expectations remain high for the Vols, with home games with Alabama and Oklahoma probably the toughest tasks left. We’re sticking at 10-2 for UT.
Texas (3-1, 9-3)
Texas had a taking care of business game that doesn’t really substantively change much of anything. The looming challenges of Georgia, A&M and Oklahoma are all key. It’ll be tough for the loser of the Oklahoma/Texas game to mount a successful CFP run, and it’s the first real chance for the Longhorns to show that they are who we thought they were.
Texas A&M (3-0, 10-2)
Texas A&M was off, and our prediction here doesn’t change. There are a few challenges late at LSU and Texas, and Missouri could be a stumbling-block road game, but otherwise, the Aggies look to be set on a CFP course.
Vanderbilt (4-0, 7-5)
Vanderbilt is playing wonderful football and deserves to be considered as a CFP longshot. Unfortunately, the schedule will catch up soon. October has a trip to Alabama and home games with LSU and Missouri. Even getting through that at 1-2 would leave Vandy at 6-2 with a good shot at 8 wins and maybe even 9. But for the momentum, we’ll stay cautious on the ‘Dores.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
