A pair of massive showdowns gave us a little clarity into the SEC season to come.
The list of College Football Playoff contenders and pretenders has had some shifts, and there are plenty of changes to make since last week’s column.
Time for the weekly deep dive into how we see the SEC’s regular season shaping up. Note that below are the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (3-1, 10-2)
Alabama, we are back in the boat. A gutsy 24-21 win at Georgia brings us back to the point of suggesting that maybe Week 1 was just an awkward misstep, and the real Alabama looks more or less as expected. There are still a bevy of challenges ahead — for one, Vandy. But Alabama stepping up combines with a few other teams looking very mortal (Oklahoma potentially without Mateer, LSU, etc.). Here we are now. Entertain us.
Arkansas (2-3, 3-9)
There’s nobody left on the schedule who Arkansas should be able to beat given the new post-Sam Pittman culture. Mississippi State would be the most likely suspect, but the Bulldogs will definitely have superior motivation as Arkansas will be sliding out of bowl contention by then. Arkansas went from a gallant team fighting a tough schedule to a hopeless case in 4 quarters against Notre Dame. We’re calling for 1 random win ahead, but that’s it.
Auburn (3-2, 7-5)
The Auburn Tigers stumbled through a hopeless offensive performance and gave us all room to wonder if they’ll make bowl eligibility. Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mercer make that a yes. But at this point, 1 more win might be about the size of things. Missouri or Vandy would be the most likely seventh win suspects.
Florida (1-3, 3-9)
The Gators were off, which is probably the best possible news. A pair of likely thumpings against Texas and Texas A&M won’t leave a lot of hope moving forward. Kentucky looks like a win, and we’re guessing for 1 more, but it’s unclear who that could even be. Mississippi State is the most likely candidate, but that’s far from certain. The Billy Napier grim reaper watch is ongoing.
Georgia (3-1, 10-2)
Did the loss to Alabama change anything? Not really. Georgia has some room to improve, but most of the teams on the remaining schedule won’t be able to capitalize on mistakes. Ole Miss and Texas look like the toughest remaining games and both are at home. A loss in either of those doesn’t deflect overall from Georgia’s path to the CFP.
Kentucky (2-2, 3-9)
A 22-point loss to South Carolina makes a pretty good case that Kentucky is effectively finished for the 2025 season. FCS Tennessee Tech is the only likely win left on the schedule.
LSU (4-1, 9-3)
The offensive concerns were real after all. The schedule isn’t too bad down the stretch, although road trips to Bama and Oklahoma are concerning, as is a home game with Texas A&M. The LSU Tigers probably could stand to impress a little more in the eye test if they want one of those final CFP spots.
Ole Miss (5-0, 11-1)
Yes, this is quite a jump. But the Ole Miss Rebels took care of LSU and the back half of their schedule has softened a bit. Those road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma are still concerning, but even a split there leaves the Rebels poised for the SEC title game and a safe CFP destination.
Mississippi State (4-1, 6-6)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs couldn’t quite take down Tennessee, but that level of play convinced us that there’s a second win still ahead for the Bulldogs. With Florida and Arkansas still ahead, there are probably 6 wins there. Yes, those are both road games, but with both teams in mid-meltdown, we’ll take State to reach a bowl in 2025.
Missouri (5-0, 9-3)
The Mizzou Tigers beat a bad team and don’t really change the overall prognosis here. Road trips to Auburn, Vandy, and Oklahoma all look potentially competitive and Alabama and Texas A&M at home will be tough to pull out. We’ll say the Tigers lose both of those home games and win 2 of the 3 road games to end up with 9 wins.
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Oklahoma (4-0, 8-4)
The Oklahoma Sooners stay here for the moment because the bye week means we haven’t really gauged their situation without John Mateer — or figured out how long Mateer is out. Kent State should be an easy win anyway, but 5-0 will fade in a hurry if the Sooners don’t get QB1 going again.
South Carolina (3-2, 5-7)
South Carolina did blast Kentucky, but its next 5 games are now against teams in the top 13 of the AP Poll, and 3 of the 5 are on the road. Oklahoma on October 18 might hold the key to bowl eligibility, potentially depending on whether John Mateer is back by then.
Tennessee (4-1, 10-2)
It’s an easy, easy CFP path now for the Vols. Arkansas and Florida are sleepwalking. Oklahoma may or may not have John Mateer and Alabama and Vandy are thus basically the biggest threats on this schedule. The game with Mississippi State wasn’t anything brilliant, but the Vols avoided a potentially costly loss, which is the big deal.
Texas (3-1, 9-3)
The Texas Longhorns were off this week. Their October road run of Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State doesn’t look that bad now. Georgia and A&M both remain and, at the moment, we’d likely go against Texas in both games. Otherwise, things are going well.
Texas A&M (4-0, 10-2)
The only really tough matchups ahead now are road trips to LSU, Missouri, and Texas. Texas A&M at 11-1 might be more likely than the 9-3 potential. By playing Florida and Arkansas in October and South Carolina when their season will likely be flagging, A&M ended up with a solid schedule draw.
Vanderbilt (5-0, 8-4)
The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of college football’s darlings, but Alabama could bring things back to reality. LSU, Texas, and Tennessee still remain. It’s not an easy run ahead for Vandy, but this team seems to be playing with house money anyway.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
