Seven SEC teams were off in Week 6. But that doesn’t mean the action of the week didn’t impact the outlook for the conference as a whole.
Here’s our usual rundown of where the teams of the SEC now look to finish the regular season.
Note that below are the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (4-1, 10-2)
Alabama took care of business and remains likely to keep taking care of business. Ty Simpson continues to impress and the remaining schedule is actually pretty light. 11-1 is far from outside the realm of possibility, but let’s see how Alabama handles road trips to Georgia and South Carolina before we take that plunge.
Arkansas (2-3, 4-8)
The week caused us to soften a bit on Arkansas, although things still figure to be far from easy. Off this week off, the Hogs go to Knoxville and then host Texas A&M. After a 2-5 start, there’s room for a little more optimism, as Auburn and Mississippi State at home could both be winnable. There’s still not a clear path to 6 wins here, though.
Auburn (3-2, 7-5)
The Auburn Tigers are talking QB change. This still looks like a potential 7-win team with basically whoever it uses at quarterback. Kentucky and Arkansas are certainly beatable, Mercer is an easy win and Vandy or Mizzou could be the seventh victory.
Florida (2-3, 4-8)
Nobody stabbed Billy Napier through the heart, so he’s looking to come back from the coaching dead once again after beating Texas. The problem in the long haul is still the schedule. Mississippi State and Kentucky look winnable, but beyond that, it gets dicey. On the road at A&M or Ole Miss look tough, as does Tennessee or Florida State at home. For the moment, we’ll stick at 4-8, although there’s a glimmer of a possibility of bowl eligibility again.
Georgia (4-1, 10-2)
Georgia basically was exactly who it looked to be against Kentucky. 11-1 could be in the cards, but this team still is capable of some relatively silly mistakes that make another loss seem more likely. The fighting Lane Kiffins have to be the most likely suspect after Texas’s nosedive.
Kentucky (2-3, 3-9)
Kentucky remains cooked. Cutter Boley was probably a little better than expected, but the talent gap between the Wildcats and the rest of the teams on their schedule is not insubstantial.
LSU (4-1, 9-3)
This LSU team still looks likely to be right on the edge of the CFP picture. The Tigers should take care of Carolina, Arkansas, and WKU easily enough. They seem likely to drop 2 from the ranks of A&M, Bama, and Oklahoma. That leaves Vandy as the potential swing game between 8-4 and 9-3.
Ole Miss (5-0, 11-1)
Nothing changed our mind here. The road trips back to back at Georgia and at Oklahoma will tell the tale, but it’s hard to imagine this team fading below 10-2 with its schedule. Ole Miss is for real.
Mississippi State (4-2, 5-7)
The path to bowl eligibility remains clear. Florida and Arkansas, both on the road, are the best bets. At the moment, we’re dropping to calling for only 1 win of those 2, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs are definitely still in that bowl eligibility hunt.
Missouri (5-0, 9-3)
The next 3 games will tell the tale for Mizzou. Alabama at home looks like a loss. But if the Tigers can best Auburn and Vandy on the road and start 7-1, they have every legitimate shot at the CFP. Texas A&M and at Oklahoma will remain ahead on the schedule, but Missouri can definitely win 10 games, even if we’ll stay with picking 9 for the moment.
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Oklahoma (5-0, 8-4)
The Oklahoma Sooners are still undefeated, but we’ll have to wait another week to get a little more idea for how things will go with Michael Hawkins at QB. A motivated Texas team and Ole Miss 2 weeks later should give us a little better idea of how high OU’s upside remains. For the moment, we’re sticking here.
South Carolina (3-2, 5-7)
The next 4 games will determine South Carolina‘s season. Road trips to LSU and Ole Miss are brutal, but home games with Alabama and Oklahoma are also challenging. A 1-3 run would be most likely, and with Coastal Carolina ahead, that would leave Carolina’s battle with Clemson determining bowl eligibility.
Tennessee (4-1, 10-2)
Tennessee remains above the fray. At Alabama is the biggest remaining schedule challenge and the Vols settle in comfortably at 10-2 even without that upset. Vanderbilt might be the biggest non-Bama issue remaining for the Vols, which is another one of those things that feels insane but is probably true.
Texas (3-2, 8-4)
Wow. Pencil Texas out of the Playoff. Georgia and A&M are both probably losses and a fifth loss isn’t out of the question if UT’s offense doesn’t get more focused.
Texas A&M (5-0, 11-1)
Nice taking care of business win for the Aggies. They still go to LSU, Missouri, and Texas, but at the moment, that looks like a reasonable road run. We’re bumping the Aggies up with Ole Miss to the top of the league.
Vanderbilt (5-1, 8-4)
The clock hits midnight and the coach turns back to a pumpkin. This is a tough schedule still ahead, and if Vanderbilt doesn’t come off its off week sharp against LSU, the Commodores could be in freefall in a hurry. Auburn and Kentucky will help the floor from falling too far, but 7-5 is possible. So is 9-3 and a potential CFP argument, but that LSU game is key.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
