An epic SEC week created a fair share of both chaos and clarity.
It was a great week for Alabama and Georgia, and not so much for LSU or Auburn, among others.
We’ll review it in the usual fashion — by projecting where the teams of the SEC will finish the regular season.
Note that below are the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (6-1, 11-1)
Alabama gets a jump here. The complete all-around effort makes it fairly clear that nobody down the season’s stretch will outlast Bama. The toughest game remaining is Oklahoma and it’s at home. Accordingly, the projection jumps to 11-1. How on Earth did Week 1 happen? In terms of both teams’ subsequent performances, it was clearly one whale of an outlier for both squads.
Arkansas (2-5, 4-8)
Arkansas scratched and clawed and stayed competitive, but the defense won’t give the Hogs a ton of chances. The 2 upcoming home games against Auburn and Mississippi State are both plausible win chances, but even a 4-8 projection is pretty optimistic. The schedule is unforgiving and the Hogs already have a season-worth of frustrating losses.
Auburn (3-4, 6-6)
The Auburn Tigers still have a path to bowl eligibility, but it all but requires a win at Arkansas next week. Kentucky and Mercer would make it a 6-win season, but that’s the outer limit. Of course, with Hugh Freeze‘s fate dangling in the wind, another close loss might seal his AU tenure.
Florida (3-4, 5-7)
Florida kept the vaguest of bowl hopes still alive. After a bye week, Georgia is a tough ask. But Kentucky and Florida State are still ahead. The bad news is even winning both of those, a win over Ole Miss or Tennessee would be required to reach bowl eligibility.
Georgia (6-1, 11-1)
Georgia looked sharper offensively than it had since the Tennessee game. The rest of the schedule doesn’t look too tough. Texas won’t beat UGA in Athens and Georgia Tech is valiant, but fits the profile of lucky more than the profile of good. After an off week, UGA is likely to get down to the business of slamming some mediocre competition.
Kentucky (2-4, 3-9)
Kentucky finds new and inventive ways to lose. The Wildcats out-gained Texas 395-179 and still lost. Even a perfect storm game at home ends up getting frittered away.
LSU (5-2, 8-4)
Kick LSU out of serious CFP contention. With remaining games against A&M at home and Alabama and Oklahoma on the road, that looks like a 1-2 run in those games. WKU and Arkansas won’t be much trouble, but even 9-3 would make a CFP sell tough. A win over the Aggies would resurrect hopes, but if that game is a loss, things are getting serious in a hurry for Brian Kelly.
Ole Miss (6-1, 11-1)
The bad news is that the secondary got picked on. The good news is with the possible exception of Oklahoma next week, Ole Miss’s remaining opponents won’t have the personnel to outscore them like Georgia did.
Mississippi State (4-3, 5-7)
Mississippi State took a tough road loss at Florida. The good news is that Texas at home has some potential and could place the Bulldogs in a situation where a win at Arkansas could get them bowl eligibility. But there’s a ton riding on the next 2 games and right now, a split looks like the probable outcome.
Missouri (6-1, 9-3)
Somebody tell Eli Drinkwitz that he actually can celebrate now. Mizzou gutted out an ugly road win, but will need to do the same thing next week at Vandy to keep its CFP path alive. Matchups with A&M and at Oklahoma are still ahead and at the moment, that looks more like a 1-2 run than a 2-1 or 3-0 run. This is bad news, because a 9-3 mark might not be enough to get the Tigers into the CFP.
RELATED: Missouri online sports betting is set to launch legally in the Show-Me State in just a couple of short months, launching on Dec. 1, 2025. Stay in the loop over the next few weeks with all the latest info about the upcoming DraftKings Missouri promo from us here at Saturday Down South.
Oklahoma (6-1, 8-4)
The Oklahoma Sooners got a solid win but still have a tough path ahead. Facing Ole Miss and then going to Tennessee and Alabama in the next 2 games after that could be humbling. It’s a non-zero chance of a drop to 6-4. With Mizzou and LSU after that, it’s not like things get much easier. We’ll call for 8 wins, which isn’t quite enough for the CFP, but is enough to demonstrate a step forward this year for OU.
South Carolina (3-4, 5-7)
The good news is that Coastal Carolina and Clemson are still out there. But South Carolina still has to scare up a league win over Alabama at home or Ole Miss or A&M on the road. None of those look very likely with this offensively-challenged squad.
Tennessee (5-2, 10-2)
Tennessee still has to play Oklahoma and Vandy, but both of those games are at home. Speaking of which, who on Earth had Vandy and UT as a potential CFP play-in game to end the regular season?
Texas (5-2, 8-4)
Texas found a way to win despite gaining under 200 total yards. Arch Manning was awful and calling for even 8 wins feels optimistic. Mississippi State and Arkansas are certainly beatable, but that leaves Vandy, Georgia, and A&M as 3 potential targets for an eighth win. There’s certainly not a ninth one to grab based on Week 8.
Texas A&M (7-0, 11-1)
The Aggies weren’t brilliant, but they have kept it up. Home games at South Carolina and Samford look easy and leave A&M probably needing just 1 of 3 at LSU, at Mizzou, or at Texas to claim a CFP spot. For the moment, we’ll say it’s 2-1 in those 3 and could leave A&M playing in the SEC title game with a little luck.
Vanderbilt (6-1, 9-3)
Vanderbilt grabbed a big win that puts them in position to go to the CFP wire. Auburn and Kentucky at home both look like solid wins. That leaves a home game with Mizzou and trips to Texas and Tennessee to do the heavy lifting. At this point, a 1-2 mark in those 3 seems the most likely, but it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility for Vandy to go 10-2.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
