SEC Week 9 provided some clarity as to the league’s direction. Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Ole Miss took steps toward the Playoff. Other schools didn’t fare so well.
But we’re doing what we always do — trying to determine how the latest developments shift the way we see the SEC shaping up at the end of the regular season.
Note that below entries include the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (7-1, 11-1)
Alabama didn’t win any beauty prizes, but avoided a costly stumble against South Carolina. After a week off, LSU and Oklahoma could potentially be challenges, but with both games in Tuscaloosa, we’re sticking at seeing the Tide run the SEC table.
Arkansas (2-6, 3-9)
Arkansas had a shot at Auburn, but lost the lead and the game. We’re downgrading even the already modest projection for the Hogs. Either Mississippi State or Missouri (pending more information on the extent of Beau Pribula’s injury) could be beatable at home, but we can’t go above going for one or the other as a victory.
Auburn (4-4, 6-6)
The Auburn Tigers got a win they couldn’t go without. Unfortunately, the rest of the season looks fairly predictable. Kentucky and Mercer will be wins, but Vandy and Bama look like very likely losses. Three straight non-winning regular season marks is probably the end of the line for Hugh Freeze.
Florida (3-4, 5-7)
Florida had its second off week, and now gets ready for a closing juggernaut. Kentucky and Florida State are certainly beatable, but a third win would have to come from one of Georgia, at Ole Miss, and home against Tennessee. While some of the SEC’s suspected powers had a bad week, none of the teams ahead on the schedule for the Gators had one.
Georgia (6-1, 11-1)
Georgia looks to get its toughest test in the regular season finale against Georgia Tech. A 10-1 Georgia team against an 11-0 Tech team could be an epic way to wind up the regular season. Nobody else on the Georgia schedule is likely to even provide a genuine challenge. The only road game is at Mississippi State and neither Texas or Florida looks as serious as they did in the preseason.
Kentucky (2-5, 3-9)
Kentucky may be in jeopardy of losing to Tennessee Tech. While Auburn and Florida aren’t exactly top SEC squads, Kentucky has been incapable of having all 3 units show up for any game this season. The Mark Stoops era looks to be creeping toward an ugly finish.
LSU (5-3, 7-5)
LSU could be on the way to an ugly slide for the rest of the season. Trips to Alabama and Oklahoma are likely to end in losses, which leaves Arkansas and Western Kentucky at home as likely victories. The Playoff issue is officially dead now, and after a week off, a trip to Alabama is unlikely to see an immediate improvement in the fortunes of the Tigers.
Ole Miss (7-1, 11-1)
The Rebels had a big “taking care of business” win over Oklahoma and have a very clean path to the CFP now. South Carolina and Florida at home don’t look scary and while State is solid, the Egg Bowl should be another easy win. Ole Miss should be in good shape for the rest of the year.
Mississippi State (4-4, 5-7)
Mississippi State frittered away a fourth quarter lead to Texas and probably lost any real hopes at bowl eligibility. Arkansas is still the most winnable game left, but even if that works out, it’ll take a win at Missouri to pull out bowl eligibility.
Missouri (6-2, 8-4)
Between the tough loss and the apparent loss of Beau Pribula, it’s probably fair to write Mizzou out of the CFP scenarios now. A&M and Oklahoma both look to be likely losses now, particularly if Pribula is out, while Mississippi State and Arkansas are plausibly still potential victories even for the likely Pribula-less Tigers.
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Oklahoma (6-2, 8-4)
Oklahoma had a rough loss that makes a CFP run a near-impossibility. It looks like a third regular-season loss would be almost impossible to overcome. With a trip to Tennessee and then, after a week off, another to Alabama, Oklahoma has significant work to do. Home games with Mizzou and LSU aren’t exactly layups, but those look substantially more winnable than the next 2 matchups.
South Carolina (3-5, 5-7)
South Carolina came close, but couldn’t quite trip up Alabama. That leaves road trips to Ole Miss or A&M as necessary upsets to nab 6 wins. While Coastal Carolina and Clemson remain very much winnable, it’s hard to see USC pulling off either of the other 2 games, particularly on the road.
Tennessee (6-2, 10-2)
Tennessee now sees the CFP path that has looked plausible for a few weeks now. Take care of business at home against Oklahoma next week and the finale with Vandy looks increasingly likely to be a CFP play-in game.
Texas (6-2, 8-4)
Texas snuck out an ugly win again. The Longhorns don’t seem likely to handle Georgia well on the road, and at the moment, home games with Vandy and Texas A&M might produce a split. It’s going to shape up as a disappointing end to a promising season.
Texas A&M (8-0, 11-1)
A&M just keeps on delivering wins. After an off week, road trips to Mizzou and Texas are the biggest remaining challenges. Even if A&M slips up and drops 1 game, they’re still where they want to be with a potential 11-1 finish.
Vanderbilt (7-1, 10-2)
Vanderbilt the CFP candidate? Yes. Kentucky and Auburn don’t seem likely to make much trouble. That would leave road games at Texas and Tennessee. Given the level of Vandy’s recent play, a split of the 2 games is completely plausible and leaves Vandy right in the midst of the CFP picture. That sentence still feels really odd… but it’s true.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
