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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Virginia. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | NC State | North Carolina | Pitt | SMU | Stanford | Syracuse
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How hot is too hot?
No, this is not a discussion about climate change. Unless, of course, you’re talking about the temperature variants beneath a coach’s seat.
Either way, the answer depends on your location and circumstance.
Just as a 70-degree day might send people in South Florida scurrying for wool sweaters while their friends in Upstate New York head to a beach, there’s no magic number for an embattled coach to save his job.
Tony Elliott’s situation is even more complicated than most.
No coach in recent memory has had to deal with as much off-the-field adversity as he has during his first 2 seasons at Virginia. Elliott’s leadership and compassion following the shooting deaths of 3 of his players in November 2022 helped keep the program together in the face of an unthinkable tragedy.
But at a certain point, life returns to normal and winning again becomes the top priority.
Elliott has reached that point.
“I want these guys to experience the fruit of their labor and go out and win some football games,” he said. “They’ve been working extremely hard. They’ve had some adversity that they’ve had to overcome that they didn’t choose, they’ve persevered and they’ve chosen to stick with it. Let’s go win some football games and see if we can earn ourselves the right to be in the postseason.”
Elliott’s Cavaliers showed signs of progress last season despite several key injuries, a difficult schedule and some demoralizing close calls. And he returns a veteran roster with 76% of its overall production returning from a year ago, a figure that ranks 2nd in the ACC.
But after winning only 3 games in each of his first 2 seasons, it’s almost a certainty that 2024 is a make-or-break proposition for his coaching future.
How many wins will it take for him to turn down the heat and extend his tenure?
That’s yet to be determined. But we can at least look into the Crystal Ball to get an idea of what Elliott is up against.
So here goes.
QB competition or controversy?
It can be a blessing to have 2 quarterbacks capable of starting and winning games, especially when one is in his final year of eligibility and the other is just a true sophomore with the option to redshirt.
But it also has the potential to become a coach’s nightmare.
How it turns out for Elliott this season will depend on how delicately – and how decisively – he handles the dynamic between graduate Tony Muskett and promising youngster Anthony Colandrea. Muskett, a transfer from Monmouth, was recruited last year to serve as a stopgap until Colandrea was ready to take over. But plans changed because of injuries.
Muskett performed well in the 5 games he played, completing 63% of his passes for 1,062 yards and 6 touchdowns. But Colandrea was just as good when pressed into service. He completed 62% for 1,958 yards and 13 scores in his 7 starts.
Elliott might have provided a hint that he’s leaning toward the veteran rather than taking his chances with a quarterback of the future – a future for which he might not be around – by bringing only Muskett to the ACC Kickoff. But he was quick to shoot down the notion. “I wouldn’t read into it,” he said. “I haven’t come out and said that this is exactly what they’re doing in fairness to both of those guys.”
At some point, Elliott will make a decision. The one thing he can’t afford to do is flip-flop and have them constantly looking over the shoulder instead of downfield for open receivers.
That’s a good way to start a quarterback controversy. And an even faster way for a coach to get shown the door.
Who replaces Malik Washington?
Elliott scored one of last year’s most underrated transfer portal pickups in record-setting receiver Malik Washington. His arrival barely created a ripple after combining to catch 120 passes for 1,348 yards and 3 touchdowns over his 4 seasons at Northwestern.
It took him only 1 year at UVa to surpass those totals. Quickly emerging as the focal point of the Cavaliers’ offense because of his quickness, sure hands and ability to turn short passes into big gains, he amassed an FBS-leading 110 receptions for 1,426 yards and 9 touchdowns. Washington broke single-season program records for catches and yards.
Now that he’s gone, having been taken by the Miami Dolphins in the 6th round of the NFL Draft, Elliott and offensive coordinator Des Kitchings are faced with the unenviable task of finding his replacement. This time they’ve brought in 3 veteran receivers off the portal in hopes of finding another diamond in the rough.
The most likely candidate is Chris Tyree. A converted running back similar in size to Washington, and perhaps even faster, the Notre Dame transfer averaged 18.6 yards on his 26 catches a year ago for the Irish. Trell Harris also has big play capability after averaging 15.5 yards on 26 catches for Kent State in 2023 while Andre Greene Jr. is a bigger receiver at 6-2, 200. The Richmond native and former 4-star recruit returns to his home state after spending 2 seasons with little playing time at rival North Carolina.
UVa’s receiving corps also has a solid returning core, led by junior Malachi Fields, who had a breakout season with 58 catches for 811 yards and 5 touchdowns as a complement to Washington.
Unfinished business on the defensive line
Chico Bennett Jr. and Kam Butler were major contributors to a defense that kept UVa competitive in 2022. It’s a unit that took a major step backward last year with both veteran pass rushers either slowed or sidelined by injuries.
The Cavaliers finished last in the ACC in points allowed, yielding an average of 33.8 points, and were 13th out of 14 teams in total defense at 409.3 yards per game. That compares to 24.0 points and 357.6 yards when both were healthy the previous year.
Bennett’s 2023 season was derailed by what Elliott called a “freak” knee injury in practice just before the opening game against Tennessee. He eventually returned and played in 11 games, but he never returned to form. He didn’t record a single sack after leading the team with 7 the season before.
Butler got off to a better start, recording 3.5 of his team’s 5 sacks in the 4 games he played. But he went down with a shoulder injury in a loss to NC State in late September. The Cavaliers had only 6 more sacks as a team in the 8 games after he went out.
Both Bennett and Butler had the option of leaving after last season. And despite his injury, Butler still received his share of NFL buzz. Both, however, chose to return to attend to attend to their unfinished business.
“I want to show everybody I’m back to my previous self of last year,” Butler said, adding that after an abbreviated spring and a full summer of conditioning, he’s “back to the same strength” he was before his injury. “I just want to show everybody I’m going to be there for them and that I’m going to play hard.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Richmond (W)
If it’s possible for a season-opener to be a must-win game, this is it. The last thing Elliott and his program need is to set an ominous tone by losing to an in-state FCS opponent right off the bat. As UVa did against the Spiders in 2016.
Week 2: at Wake Forest (L)
Dave Clawson has taken steps to improve a Deacons offense that struggled to find a replacement for record-setting quarterback Sam Hartman last season. And they’re at home.
Week 3: vs. Maryland (L)
The Cavaliers got off to a great start against their neighboring, former-ACC rival last season. But after sprinting out to an early 14-0 lead, things unraveled quickly and the Terrapins scored the game’s final 42 points. But that was with Taulia Tagovailoa. The Terps are starting over on offense in 2024, but after posting its 3rd straight winning season and beating Auburn in the Music City Bowl, Mike Locksley’s program could be ready to make some noise in the Big Ten.
Week 4: at Coastal Carolina (W)
This game originally was scheduled to be played in 2022, but was canceled after the tragic shooting that took the lives of 3 UVa players. The Chanticleers have been among the best teams in the Group of 5 over the past few seasons. But quarterback Grayson McCall is at NC State now. And the Wolfpack aren’t on UVa’s schedule.
Week 5: Open
Week 6: vs. Boston College (W)
The Cavaliers got off to an even better start against the Eagles than they did against Maryland last season. But after leading 21-10 at halftime, they were only able to muster a single field goal on the way to one of their most frustrating losses in a frustrating season. This time the game is in Charlottesville. And they won’t let it slip away.
Week 7: vs. Louisville (L)
Colandrea threw for 314 yards and rushed for 89 more as the Cavaliers gave the eventual ACC runner-up Cardinals fits before losing another 1-score game in 2023. Louisville lost a lot of its offensive production from that team. But Jeff Brohm has reloaded and is ready to make another run at the championship game.
Week 8: at Clemson (L)
Elliott returns to Death Valley, where he served as the Tigers’ offensive coordinator before coming to Charlottesville. But other than a hug from Dabo Swinney, he shouldn’t expect any other courtesies from his former boss.
Week 9: vs. North Carolina (W)
There’s something about the sight of Carolina Blue that brings out the best in the Cavaliers. They’ve beaten the Tar heels in 5 of the past 7 renewals of The South’s Oldest Rivalry, including a stunner in Chapel Hill in which Muskett threw for 208 yards and ran for 66. Muskett is back. Drake Maye is not. Advantage, UVa.
Week 10: Open
Week 11: at Pitt (L)
Both coaches enter the season on the hot seat. By the time they get to Week 11, the temperature could be turned up even higher on at least 1 of them. The Panthers may have fallen apart by going 3-9 last season. But Pat Narduzzi is too good a coach to let that happen again.
Week 12: at Notre Dame (L)
The Cavaliers are going to have to light a few candles at The Grotto and hope for a miracle in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus to have any shot at pulling off an upset. The Irish are just too big and too physical for UVa.
Week 13: vs. SMU (W)
The Mustangs won 11 games and the American Athletic Conference championship last season. But they also went 0-3 against power conference opponents. This year’s schedule includes 10 straight games against power conference competition. And by late November, the grind is bound to catch up to them. UVa gets a Senior Day victory, keeps their slim bowl hopes alive and just maybe, saves their coach’s job.
Week 14: at Virginia Tech (L)
Elliott and Tech’s Brent Pry arrived at their respective schools at the same time. But thanks to circumstances that have nothing to do with Xs and Os, the Hokies are much farther ahead in their development than the Cavaliers. The gap between them is still too wide for UVa to pull off the upset, especially in Blacksburg, where they haven’t won since 1998.
2024 projection: 5-7 (3-5)
#UVAStrong
You’d never know it judging from their 3-9 record, but the Cavaliers weren’t that far off from being a bowl team last year. Five of those 9 losses – against James Madison, NC State, Boston College, Miami and Louisville – were by a touchdown or less. Four were by a field goal or less, and one, at Miami, was in overtime. Win 3 of those 5 games and the Cavs would have spent their holidays at a bowl game instead of wondering about their coach’s future.
The goal this season is to find ways to close out opponents and win some of those close games.
It won’t be easy against a difficult schedule that gets tougher as the season progresses. With its most difficult tests on the road. But there are enough potential wins to make bowl eligibility a reasonable goal.
Or at the very least, to keep Elliott around for at least another season.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
