LSU’s coaching search is only a few days old, but it’s never too early to start taking a look at predictions for who may be the next head man in Baton Rouge.
The LSU job is one of the most highly-coveted positions in the country and is sure to attract a wide variety of highly-qualified candidates. There’s a history of winning national championships at LSU that is nearly unmatched since the start of the 21st century. Before Brian Kelly, each of the previous 3 head coaches led the Tigers to a national title before departing.Â
On prediction markets like Kalshi, you can put money behind your opinions. Kalshi markets like the LSU head coach vacancy are often volatile — they have the potential to move significantly with every message board post or insider report. But they can also lead to profits for fans who may have a good read on who will be hired for a particular job.
Next LSU head coach odds
Kalshi has already posted a market for who will be the next head coach of the LSU Tigers (there’s also a market for Florida’s next head coach, if you’re interested). Money from Kalshi users has already been pouring in on a number of potential candidates, so let’s take a fresh look at where the market currently stands.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
Current Kalshi price: 30 cents per contract
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is likely to be the top name at both Florida and LSU throughout this process. Kiffin has led the Rebels to a 7-1 start and it looks as though they’ll be making their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance this season. Like many elite coaches, Kiffin is represented by Jimmy Sexton, arguably the most powerful agent in the sport.
Jon Sumrall, Tulane
Current Kalshi price: 27 cents per contract
Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has long been thought of as a future SEC coach and this may be the offseason where he makes the jump. A former Kentucky linebacker, Sumrall has ties across the Southeast. He’s coached at Tulane for 2 years. Before that, he was the head coach at Troy. He’s also been an assistant at Kentucky and Ole Miss. It will be interesting to see if LSU is interested in hiring a Group-of-5 coach from within its own state — something it avoided 4 years ago when Billy Napier was the hot name on the coaching market after his strong run at Louisiana.
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame
Current Kalshi price: 10 cents per contract
How ironic would it be if LSU replaced Brian Kelly with Kelly’s successor in South Bend? Freeman has acquitted himself very well as a head coach since Kelly’s departure as he brought the Irish all the way to the national title game last season. At 39, Freeman is recognized as one of the best recruiters in the country. Most of his background is in the midwest — he played at Ohio State and coached at Kent State, Purdue and Cincinnati before being hired to Kelly’s staff at Notre Dame.
Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator
Current Kalshi price: 9 cents per contract
Joe Brady would be an out-of-the-box pick, but LSU fans have fond memories of his time in Baton Rouge. Brady was the offensive coordinator for the Tigers in 2019 when Joe Burrow led the program to an undefeated season and their most recent national championship. Brady left for the NFL the next year, though, and hasn’t been back in the college game since.
Dan Lanning, Oregon
Current Kalshi price: 7 cents per contract
Oregon coach Dan Lanning has been adamant about his desire to stay with the Ducks. He didn’t waver when Alabama’s job came open a couple of years ago following Nick Saban’s retirement, which suggests he’s serious about his plans to remain in Eugene. Still, LSU is likely to make a run at Lanning, who is one of the best and most-accomplished coaches in the sport yet to win a national title. Lanning also has ties to the SEC as he was previously on staff at Alabama and Georgia.
LSU head coaching prediction
Here’s something to keep in mind when trying to forecast this search: LSU athletic director Scott Woodward likes to take home run swings. And he generally connects — at least from a PR perspective. Woodward’s hires haven’t always worked out, but he almost always wins the press conference. He was the one who hired Chris Petersen away from Boise State to work at Washington. He hired a national championship-winner in Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M. And he brought Brian Kelly to Baton Rouge 4 years ago — something almost no one in the industry thought would be possible before it was confirmed.Â
I think an out-of-left-field candidate is certainly possible here if Woodward is leading this search. I’ll note that Lincoln Riley, who currently does not have a price on this Kalshi market, was heavily linked to LSU before he left Oklahoma for the USC job. It’s unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule him out completely.Â
Given the current market prices available on each of the candidates listed, I think Sumrall is where the value lies. He’s won big at Group-of-5 programs in the South who don’t historically have high levels of success. He knows the state, which was a big problem with Kelly. Sumrall also has years of experience as a player and coach with managing the grind of an SEC schedule. I expect Woodward will swing for the fences with names like Lanning and Freeman first. But Sumrall checks all the boxes if he’s unable to connect. Sumrall would also likely be among the cheapest options from an annual salary perspective, which could be a big plus for an LSU booster corps that’s looking at having to fund more than $50 million in buyout payments to Kelly.
Pick: Jon Sumrall to be LSU’s next head coach (27 cents per contract)
How Kalshi works
Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users to put money behind their opinions. Markets are wide-ranging and can include everything from the outcome of sporting events to the temperature in a given city or even the contents of a high-profile speech. Kalshi is also legal in all 50 US states.
Users can purchase “contracts” that will pay out at a rate of $1 per contract if the prediction is graded as accurate. For example, if Sumrall is hired as LSU’s head coach, then a $10 prediction at a cost of 27 cents per contract would result in a $35 payout.
On Kalshi, you’re not limited to just making predictions on things that you think will happen. You can also place predictions on what you think won’t happen. For example, Lane Kiffin to “not” be LSU’s next head coach is currently trading at 78 cents per contract. That’s a unique mechanism that could be useful when making predictions on something as volatile as a coaching search.
Users are also able to make updated predictions as new information becomes available at the current market price. For example, if you predicted Freeman to be LSU’s next head coach and his price increases, you could choose to sell your contracts potentially lock in a profit.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
