Did we learn much from the SEC in Week 1? For some teams, absolutely.
Contrast the expectations today with those for, say, Alabama or Auburn a week ago. We learned a few things. There’s plenty still to be unearthed, of course, but on the basis of Week 1, here’s a rundown on where the teams of the SEC stand to finish the regular season.
Each entry lists the regular-season mark, and then the projected final regular-season mark for every SEC squad.
Let’s start with the aforementioned Alabama Crimson Tide:
Alabama (0-1, 7-5)
First, that wasn’t the real Alabama. Second, even the real Alabama, based on what we saw, is likely to lose to Georgia and LSU and probably then 2 of the 4 of Tennessee, Auburn, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. Overall, 9-3 looks like the ceiling here, with 5-7 as the floor. And 7-5 seems like the ultimate destination, and that’ll grease the skids for Kalen DeBoer.
Arkansas (1-0, 5-7)
Home games with Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Auburn all look beyond the Hogs. On the road, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Texas add up to 7 defeats in total. It probably wasn’t the ideal season for Arkansas to play Notre Dame in nonconference play.
Auburn (1-0, 8-4)
The Tigers ahead of the Tide? Looks that way from here. Road games at Oklahoma and A&M are the toughest such contests. The home schedule does include Georgia and Alabama, but even if those are both losses (and the latter looks far from certain), a split of the tough road games and another random stumble would still leave the Tigers at 8-4.
Florida (1-0, 7-5)
The Florida Gators looked good, but there’s trouble ahead. USF in Week 2 now looks tough and road trips to LSU and Miami could leave the Gators 1-3 leaving the month of September. A 2-2 mark is more likely, but with Texas, Georgia, at Ole Miss, and Florida State still on the schedule, 7 wins will take some serious work.
Georgia (1-0, 10-2)
The Bulldogs are the team closest to getting an 11-1 forecast. As things stand, they seem like a plausible favorite in every game. The road trips to Tennessee and Auburn could be competitive and the home battles with Alabama and Texas could be tough. Without seeing enough to yet know, 10-2 is the safe pick, but a good game in Knoxville in 2 weeks could jump us to 11-1 easily.
Kentucky (1-0, 4-8)
Eastern Michigan, Tennessee Tech and either Vanderbilt or Louisville on the road look like Kentucky‘s best hopes. A miracle against Ole Miss in Week 2 could revive hopes here.
LSU (1-0, 10-2)
The Tigers’ path to the College Football Playoff is suddenly wide open. Alabama is the toughest road game here, although Ole Miss or Oklahoma could be interesting. They avoid Georgia or Texas, so this lays out pretty well for a nice season for the Tigers thanks to the Week 1 road win.
Ole Miss (1-0, 8-4)
The Rebels get some love from FPI, but the schedule has plenty of challenges. LSU and a road game at Georgia likely spell a pair of losses. The trip to Oklahoma and home games with South Carolina and Florida figure to offer stiff competition. The guess here is that Ole Miss loses 2 of those last 3 to fall outside the CFP.
Mississippi State (1-0, 4-8)
At home against Alcorn State, Northern Illinois, and perhaps Arizona State looks like the rundown here. There are a few SEC games that even look worthy of hopes of an upset for Mississippi State — at Arkansas might be the best shot.
Missouri (1-0, 8-4)
The Tigers have a fairly soft schedule that should help out a lot. Road trips to Auburn and Oklahoma both look challenging, but hardly impossible. At home, Alabama, South Carolina, and A&M could all punch up. The guess here is that Mizzou picks off one of that batch, but not a second, which could place it in the periphery of the CFP conversation.
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Oklahoma (1-0, 7-5)
Week 2 could be the proving ground. Beat Michigan and there are some more possibilities that open up. As it stands, Texas, LSU, and at Alabama and Tennessee each look tough. OU will probably be better than its record, but with this schedule, there’s not much wiggle room.
South Carolina (1-0, 8-4)
The Gamecocks shape up to fall just off last season’s pace. Road games at LSU, Ole Miss, and A&M each offer legitimate difficulty. At home, Alabama and Clemson await. The thought here is that the Gamecocks pick up 1 win against that bunch, but fall in the other 4 to end up with 8 wins.
Tennessee (1-0, 9-3)
The Vols definitely have CFP life after the opening week. Georgia and at Alabama both loom large on the remaining schedule. Otherwise at Florida is probably the biggest challenge here. UT might be fine there, but the pick is for another surprise loss somewhere along the line (Oklahoma maybe?).
Texas (0-1, 9-3)
The Longhorns took a tough loss, but there’s probably not a ton more that will go against them. The trip to Georgia on Nov. 15 is daunting, and beyond that, we’ll possibly see another loss somewhere out there. At Florida, or in Dallas with Oklahoma or even against A&M to close the regular season look plausible. It’s a CFP-quality team, but the Horns might need a lucky break or 2 to get there.
Texas A&M (1-0, 8-4)
The Aggies have a tough schedule with trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas all but guaranteeing 3 losses. Home games with Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina could also make things tough. It’s hard to see a scenario in which A&M wins more than 8 games in the regular season.
Vanderbilt (1-0, 5-7)
The road schedule includes Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee. That’s a very plausible 0-5 run right there. Add in LSU and Auburn at home and that looks like a losing season for the fighting Diego Pavias.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
