SEC Week 2 yielded a few big surprises (Florida, Mississippi State, etc.) and a few more dozy non-competitive no-shows.
There are still a handful of teams that haven’t seen real competition. But regardless, we won’t wait. Here’s a rundown of where the teams of the SEC now stand record-wise and where we project them to finish the regular season.
This is where the SEC stands… at least until we see them all again.
(Note: The first record is the current mark and the second record is our projected final record.)
Alabama (1-1, 7-5)
Beating a miserable lower-tier opponent was a step forward, but not a terribly meaningful step. It’s still hard to imagine Alabama getting past Georgia and LSU. At this point, it’s safe to wonder whether Alabama can hang around against teams like Tennessee or South Carolina. Oklahoma and Auburn both seem capable of grinding out wins. There’s still some room for optimism here, but how Alabama handles game pressure the next time around will be telling. That’s probably the final game of September against Georgia.
Arkansas (2-0, 5-7)
The road game next week against Ole Miss should be telling. Yes, Arkansas has been fine, but the final week of September on is pretty rough. Picking up Notre Dame out of conference was probably not great. With a trio of awful road games with Tennessee, LSU, and Texas, Arkansas may have to pull some magic in a home upset or 2. Meanwhile, Memphis on the road in Week 4 is a potential stumbling block.
Auburn (2-0, 8-4)
Auburn remains up high. The passing game seemed to make strides, although admittedly, what to be learned from Ball State is a debatable matter. The back to back road games with Oklahoma and Texas A&M both look like significant challenges. Split the pair and 9 wins looks entirely plausible. For now, we’ll stick at 8-4.
Florida (1-1, 5-7)
USF wasn’t Long Island. Florida has plenty of talent, but things are about to get ugly. The next 3 games are at LSU, at Miami and then at home against Texas. The Gators are highly likely to start out 1-4 and if they do that, the flaming hot seat under Billy Napier might interfere with the ability to even reach 6 wins. If South Florida is a home loss, there’s not many (any?) more games on the schedule that look terribly certain.
Georgia (2-0, 10-2)
We still know basically nothing about Georgia. Road games at Auburn and Mississippi State both look tougher than they did, but Georgia still seems like a team that doesn’t drop more than a pair of regular season games. A season ago, Alabama gave is best regular-season effort to take down Georgia. Short of a Tennessee upset, a repeat performance of that might be the biggest early danger to this team.
Kentucky (1-1, 4-8)
Kentucky continues to set back offensive football. Two weak nonconference games and then a mild surprise win over Florida, Vanderbilt, or Louisville looks like the predictable outcome. How much buyout money can AD Mitch Barnhart raise?
LSU (2-0, 10-2)
LSU had a dozy victory over Louisiana Tech, but the defense still worked hard, holding Tech to just 154 total yards. That might be the story here. ESPN’s FPI ratings love Ole Miss much more than the Tigers, but the 3 teams from the SEC that likely project best into the College Football Playoff have to be Texas, Georgia, and LSU. The Tigers are the only SEC team lucky enough to not face any of those 3 (as they can’t play themselves).
Ole Miss (2-0, 8-4)
The Rebels struggled with a punchless Kentucky, but did avoid a damaging upset. It should be a 4-0 start for the Rebels, but a 4-game run that includes LSU, at Georgia, and at Oklahoma looks challenging. The Egg Bowl suddenly doesn’t look like a chippy, but Florida at home might be by mid-November (as Billy Napier will likely be fired). We’ll stick with the Rebs at 8-4, but not quite stout enough for the CFP.
Mississippi State (2-0, 5-7)
The Bulldogs managed a great win over Arizona State and should now start 4-0. But the SEC slate is tough– no Kentucky or Vandy to be found. Florida and Arkansas look like winnable road games, and that is the most likely path to 6 wins, although for the moment that still seems a little optimistic.
At home against Alcorn State, Northern Illinois, and perhaps Mizzou looks like the rundown here. There are a few SEC games that even look worthy of hopes of an upset for Mississippi State — at Arkansas might be the best shot.
Missouri (2-0, 9-3)
It was an ugly start, but Mizzou woke up and picked off Kansas. The impressiveness of the Tiger offense convinced us to bump them up a victory. Mizzou could well start 5-0 with a win over South Carolina in 2 weeks. Get that one and 9-3 is entirely plausible. That would put the Tigers probably just outside the range of the CFP’s reach.
Oklahoma (2-0, 8-4)
In no reasonable world is Missouri actually better than Oklahoma. But the Sooners still face a tougher schedule. If they can handle Auburn at home, they’ll start 5-0. But that late-season run is brutal, as Texas, LSU, at Bama, at Tennessee, at South Carolina, and home against Ole Miss and Mizzou will leave even a quality team gasping for air. OU is still upwardly mobile, but it’s a tough back end of the schedule.
South Carolina (2-0, 8-4)
Carolina is still flexible and could surprise here. If they can outlast Missouri on the road, Carolina shapes up as likely to open 5-0. There’s no Texas or Georgia on the schedule, but with Clemson still a non-league game, 8 wins feels pretty ambitious. 9 is certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but given the schedule, neither is 7 wins.
Tennessee (2-0, 10-2)
Tennessee shapes up even better than expected. Yes, this coming weekend against Georgia is a likely loss. But after that, there’s not a ton of problems — at Bama and at home against Oklahoma look like the toughest games. Tennessee looks like they’d split the 2 and if the Vols can avoid the occasional ugly and inexplicable loss (see Arkansas a year ago), they’re in great CFP shape.
Texas (1-1, 10-2)
Get Ohio State out of the picture and it turns out that Texas can score points. Two easy weeks should set the Horns up to fare well. Georgia awaits a November game on the road but A&M at home and Oklahoma in Dallas are the 2 toughest remaining games otherwise. A split there lands Texas at 10 wins, which feels about right.
Texas A&M (2-0, 8-4)
A&M’s offense has been impressive. If the Aggies upset Notre Dame, the CFP talk has some real legs. There are still road trips to LSU and Texas ahead, so this factors out as a likely 8-4 team that could indeed be dangerous. A&M looks more like a CFP spoiler than contender, but beat the Irish next week and the conversation gets much more interesting.
Vanderbilt (2-0, 5-7)
Vandy should finish September at 4-1. That leaves Kentucky and hope for a bowl bid. Missouri or Auburn at home look like the best chances, but for the moment, we’ll keep the ‘Dores just outside the bowl reach.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
