The first week with multiple SEC conference matchups was a wild one.
With nearly a month of SEC action to judge, the league’s big picture is starting to make sense. Here’s where we see the squads of the SEC ending the regular season.
Note that below are the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (2-1, 8-4)
Are we climbing back into the boat on the Tide? Well, at least a little bit. Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma all look genuinely challenging, but if the Alabama offense truly is as smoothed out as it seemed against Wisconsin, 9 wins isn’t out of the question. Yes, the last 2 weeks consisted of Alabama beating bad teams like a matter of routine, but that did show some focus and consistency.
Arkansas (2-1, 5-7)
The Arkansas Razorbacks were closing in on a massive upset at Ole Miss. The problem is finding a ton more wins on the Arkansas schedule. At Memphis will be a challenge, but even with that win, the Hogs need Mississippi State and probably Auburn and Mizzou at home to reach 6 wins. At this point, that still looks a bit beyond the Razorbacks’ means.
Auburn (3-0, 8-4)
Auburn remains a team that has taken care of early business. That said, those next 2 road games at Oklahoma and Texas A&M could bring things back to Earth in a hurry. The Jackson Arnold revenge tour next week will be a massive story. But if Auburn can hold things together, a 4-game run of Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mercer late will help things out. An 8-4 record still looks like the most likely outcome.
Florida (1-2, 4-8)
Billy Napier pulled a season out of the fire in 2024, but 2025 just looks different. Florida can’t get things moving with DJ Lagway chucking interceptions like they count for Florida touchdowns. A road game at Miami and a home game with Texas leaves Florida very likely to be 1-4 and Napier’s Florida situation to be the worst-kept secret in college football. LSU represented a chance to save the season and Florida didn’t deliver.
Georgia (3-0, 10-2)
Georgia‘s execution wasn’t always great, but the Bulldogs found a way to win. Alabama’s shot at rebirth in 2 weeks could leave this secondary with its hands full. Tennessee essentially provided a blueprint to beat the Bulldogs, with the exception of some execution errors. There aren’t many teams on Georgia’s schedule that can bring the personnel to trouble the Dawgs. Bear in mind that Auburn and Mississippi State are the 2 road trips left in Georgia’s season.
Kentucky (2-1, 4-8)
Kentucky struggled at times with one of the worst FBS teams in the nation. Three wins looks more likely than 5 for the Wildcats. After FCS Tennessee Tech, where are the other wins here? A dispirited Florida team or Vanderbilt overlooking the Wildcats are the most plausible possibilities.
LSU (3-0, 9-3)
The LSU offense has been surprisingly mediocre. But the good news it that the defense has made major strides. LSU drew a decent schedule, but all of the road games (Ole Miss, Vandy, Alabama, and Oklahoma) could be challenging. In fact, based on the performance of those teams, we’ll project a potential third loss for the Tigers. If the LSU offense perks up, we’ll jump them back to 10-2.
Ole Miss (3-0, 9-3)
Ole Miss seems to be living dangerously and squeaked out wins in the last 2 weeks. But tougher challenges lie ahead. Tulane next week won’t be easy and games against LSU and at Georgia and Oklahoma leave the Rebels with a couple of likely losses coming out of October. That said, November looks much easier with fades by South Carolina and Florida, so we’ll jump the Rebs to 9-3 and right in the thick of the CFP conversation.
Mississippi State (3-0, 5-7)
Mississippi State continues to be dominant and should move to 4-0 next week. This brutal SEC schedule just doesn’t offer many good chances at wins. State’s home schedule in the conference is Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Two road upsets is probably State’s best chance to get to 6 wins and that feels a bit optimistic.
Missouri (3-0, 9-3)
Mizzou has been fine but a conference road slate of Auburn, Vandy, Oklahoma, and Arkansas didn’t look too imposing going into the season. It looks a good bit tougher after 3 weeks of games. Getting to 4-0 via a home win over South Carolina next weekend would support those CFP dreams for the Tigers.
RELATED: Missouri online sports betting will launch on Dec. 1, 2025. Stay in the know with all the latest information about the upcoming DraftKings Missouri promo.
Oklahoma (3-0, 8-4)
Like Mizzou, getting off to a 5-0 jump is key for Oklahoma, and Auburn at home in the return of Jackson Arnold offers a solid chance at keeping that hope rolling. It would be great to jump OU higher in the predictions, but the Sooners just nabbed a brutally tough schedule. There’s no Kentucky or Mississippi State to project out for an easy win for the Sooners.
South Carolina (2-1, 7-5)
If LaNorris Sellers is okay, South Carolina is still competitive. If not, a 6-6 season would probably be about as good as can be expected. At Missouri and Kentucky next should set USC’s overall progress. Split them and 6-7 wins is still plausible. Lose both and the Gamecocks have a losing season. Win both and we’ll start thinking about 8 wins again.
Tennessee (2-1, 10-2)
The loss to Georgia really doesn’t impact our thoughts on the Vols. In fact, it was basically expected, and if anything, it’s impressive that Tennessee was one fundamental mistake from a victory. The 2 toughest games left are probably still at home against Oklahoma and at Alabama and UT is probably good enough to split the 2. The random upset loss from left field is the only real possible problem for the Vols.
Texas (2-1, 9-3)
Texas hasn’t been very impressive at all, particularly on offense. The Longhorns have enough talent to beat some of the weaker teams on the schedule, but at this point, at Georgia, a home game with A&M, and a neutral-site game with Oklahoma all look tough. We’ll say Texas picks up 1 of the 3, but the Longhorns seem to be a bubble CFP team at this point.
Texas A&M (3-0, 10-2)
Texas A&M could legitimately open 7-0. After a week off, Auburn next is probably the toughest game on the slate until an Oct. 25 trip to LSU. Mizzou and Texas are both road opponents that could be dangerous, but at this point, if the Aggies can take care of business against Auburn, a 10-win regular season looks pretty plausible.
Vanderbilt (3-0, 7-5)
Vanderbilt will now likely finish September at 5-0. Road trips to Bama, Texas, and Tennessee are all awful, but Kentucky and another minor upset (Mizzou, maybe Auburn) will clear another winning season for the Commodores.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
