As it turns out, things aren’t so easy for that group of elected officials in Irvine, Texas. Selection Sunday is 1 sleep away, and after Saturday’s developments, it’s safe to say that things will be hotly debated.
Alabama’s blowout loss to Georgia set the wheels in motion for the masses to pick apart the Tide, who looked like a team that was hanging by a thread entering Saturday.
So what happens with Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame? Who falls? And what does the rest of the top 12 look like?
Let’s predict how the field will play out:
12. James Madison
Look. I know that the ACC got a raw deal with the Miami thing and if I were making these picks, the Canes would be in instead of Notre Dame. But Duke isn’t making the field with 5 losses. Period. JMU sneaking into the CFP Top 25 this past week at least told us that there’s a chance. A 1-loss Sun Belt team making the field instead of a single ACC team would be the type of scenario that nobody would’ve ever pictured, but we’re on the brink of it.
11. Tulane
Good for Jon Sumrall for navigating 2 jobs and getting his team ready to play in a conference title game. By winning The American, there’s not really any debate about Tulane’s Playoff credentials after it was the highest-ranked Group of 5 team entering the weekend. It’s odd to think that if this were still a system that still rewarded the top 4 highest-ranked conference champs with an automatic bid and a Round 1 bye like it did in 2024, we could’ve been talking about whether Tulane would be getting a bye. But that’s no longer the case. Tulane is in, albeit with a daunting road trip in Round 1.
10. Alabama
Yuck. That’s how the selection committee should’ve viewed an Alabama rushing performance that finished with -3 yards, which was the worst showing since at least 1940. A 3-touchdown loss against Georgia didn’t completely wipe away an Alabama résumé that included 4 consecutive wins vs. AP Top 25 teams without any rest, but it certainly called it into question. Three losses for an at-large team isn’t a total deal-breaker, but 2 of those were blowouts, including the final data point. Kalen DeBoer didn’t believe that his team should be punished for Saturday’s dud. If push comes to shove, my guess is that (slightly) more people on the selection committee will side with him.
9. Notre Dame
If the selection committee wants to pretend that the SEC Championship actually mattered, this is how it can do it. Move Notre Dame back to the 9-seed, drop Alabama 1 spot and leave Miami multiple spots apart. Is that what I’d do? Nope. I’d factor in the game of American tackle football that those 2 teams played this season. I’d also factor the common opponents and how Miami had a better scoring margin in 3 of those 4 games. That should matter, too. Will it matter for the selection committee? At this point, that’s not worth holding your breath for.
8. Oklahoma
You could argue that Oklahoma was the biggest winner among the idle teams on Saturday. A win from either Alabama or BYU would’ve potentially bumped the Sooners back into that 9-10 range and made them travel for a Round 1 game. As it stands, they should feel safe about a home Playoff game, albeit against a No. 9 seed. Oklahoma’s offense will prevent anyone from having the Sooners making a deep run, but a trip to Norman against a top-5 defense in the sport won’t be a picnic.
7. Texas A&M
You can tell me that the Aggies had a soft conference schedule, and I can tell you that it still beat Notre Dame in South Bend. That’s a team that the selection committee put in the top 10 at every turn. That won’t change on Sunday after the Aggies were idle. The fact that they were sandwiched by a pair of idle SEC teams should’ve locked them in after BYU failed to crash the party and Alabama didn’t earn the right to jump Texas A&M. The only intrigue for A&M was going to be who ultimately earned that last at-large spot and likely ended up with the 10-seed.
6. Ole Miss
Tuesday squashed any ridiculous notion that Ole Miss would get punished for losing Lane Kiffin to LSU. Instead of dropping, it moved up to No. 6 and all but guaranteed itself a home Playoff game with a lone blemish being to SEC champ Georgia. That was significant because of the expected difference between the final 2 auto bids securing spots 11-12 while the aforementioned trio competing for the final at-large berth would be at that No. 10 seed. The return of Charlie Weis Jr. to call plays should give Ole Miss an even better chance to take care of business in Oxford in a couple weeks.
5. Oregon
The Ducks have quietly answered every question that faced them since that Indiana loss. Whether that was keeping USC at an arm’s length or winning a gritty game in Iowa, Oregon has been one of the best teams in the country in the latter half of the season, even amidst injuries. Questions about a thin résumé that didn’t get a big Penn State boost have since faded. Now, the only question is about whether Oregon will be poised to flip the script from last year’s squad, which started 13-0 but ran into a buzzsaw in the Rose Bowl. Thankfully for Oregon, it should avoid those Big Ten teams in the quarterfinals.
4. Texas Tech
Lost in the shuffle of Saturday’s developments was the fact that before Alabama-Notre Dame-Miami debates could really get going was what the Red Raiders did in the Big 12 Championship. They did what they’ve done 11 times this year. That is, roll. I suppose that was what they did once this year. That is, dominate BYU. The selection committee doesn’t have to justify putting Texas Tech in for one of those Round 1 byes because they’ve passed every eye test metric imaginable. A stress-free Sunday awaits.
3. Ohio State
Not all is lost for the Buckeyes after losing for the first time since last year’s Michigan game. After all, it was a 1-2 matchup. Sure, the Buckeyes would’ve liked to have won their first Big Ten Championship since — wait for it — 2020. That’ll still yield a Round 1 bye, and the Buckeyes can sell internally that they lost last year’s regular-season finale and then reset with a historic run through the Playoff. Also, the Buckeyes finally played in a 4-quarter game for the first time since August. Perhaps now is the time to buy stock.
2. Georgia
Just an absolute beatdown. That’s what Georgia delivered in a game in which it didn’t need to make the field, but still got in emphatic fashion. The Dawgs not only held Alabama to -3 rushing yards, but they also showed that they could fend off any whiff of a late comeback to make it look somewhat close. Georgia avenged its only loss of the year to earn its second consecutive SEC Championship. The Dawgs will get another Round 1 bye, and they’ll have a legitimate argument to be considered the scariest team in the field.
1. Indiana
What a time to be alive. Indiana is the last remaining unbeaten team in FBS, and there’s zero debate whatsoever about the 1-seed after a Big Ten Championship win against Ohio State. It’s not a sentence that feels real for the program with more losses than anyone in FBS. No discussions about the Indiana résumé will be had after beating Oregon and Ohio State away from home. IU is going to be playing in the Rose Bowl, and the only thing left to figure out is who comes out of the 8-9 matchup. If that doesn’t tell you that anything is possible, I don’t know what will.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
