If you’re the “rankings don’t matter” guy, I’ve got news for you.
Tuesday night? It matters. A lot.
The selection committee will tip its hand before conference championship weekend and likely rank a whole bunch of idle teams in slots that won’t change. That’ll matter to a whole bunch of teams.
So what will the last Tuesday ranking — Selection Sunday will set the field after conference championship weekend — look like? Let’s predict that:
12. BYU
BYU’s path is obvious knowing that it’s all about beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. Unlike some of the others in the top 12, it’s straightforward how this will look. That’s the comforting thought instead of an idle team like Miami, who could be in position to jump the Cougars this ranking.
11. Miami (FL)
The Canes have been moved up in every ranking since inexplicably debuting at No. 18. The irony is that the selection committee’s initial argument for why the head-to-head didn’t matter against Notre Dame was because their résumés were too far apart to be evaluated in a side-by-side context. Miami then closed the regular season by beating Pitt by 31 points, which was even greater than Notre Dame’s 22-point margin against Pat Narduzzi’s squad. Look at their mutual opponents:
- Pitt — Miami won by 31, Notre Dame won by 22
- Syracuse — Notre Dame won by 63, Miami won by 28
- Stanford — Miami won by 35, Notre Dame won by 29
- NC State — Miami won by 34, Notre Dame won by 29
So that’s 4 mutual opponents, 3 of which saw Miami have a scoring advantage. If not beating Syracuse by a billion made the difference there for Miami, that’s certainly a weird dynamic to consider.
10. Alabama
The Tide simply had to survive at Jordan-Hare to keep its Playoff hopes alive. This ranking is pivotal because it can’t afford to get jumped by Miami, who’ll be idle. Whoever earns the No. 10 ranking appears that it’ll be the last team into the field. If BYU beats Texas Tech, I would expect that would be bad news for Alabama if it loses the SEC Championship. But if Texas Tech wins as nearly a 2-touchdown favorite, I tend to think Alabama will benefit from last year’s SMU precedent and it won’t be punished for earning a conference title game.
9. Notre Dame
I’ve already spoken ad nauseam about why the Irish should be behind both Alabama and Miami, but I digress. This is a projection. I project that the Irish won’t fall out of that No. 9 ranking after blowing out lowly Stanford. This will all but guarantee that Notre Dame is in the field. Clearly, the selection committee just believes that the Irish are better than Alabama and Miami.
8. Oklahoma
The Sooners might have the worst offense to ever have an imminent Playoff berth, but that’s not going to matter with this ranking. That defense is special. Getting to 10-2 with 6 AP Top 25 opponents to navigate is no small feat. Holding on to the No. 8 ranking matters here because of what it means to have that potential home Playoff game. If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, though, I would expect the Tide to jump Oklahoma, even with not having the head-to-head advantage. Why? Because winning the SEC — something that has earned a top-4 seed in all 11 years of the Playoff — by beating UGA twice would carry a ton of weight.
7. Ole Miss
No, I do not believe the selection committee is going to truly factor in Lane Kiffin‘s absence with its ranking. Not for an Ole Miss team who hasn’t played a game with those circumstances. That’s where this differs than the 2023 Florida State situation when you had the selection committee watch 2 Jordan Travis-less games in which the Seminoles failed to hit 4.0 yards per play. Ole Miss will still be in a nice spot to host a home Playoff game.
6. Texas A&M
This is the most interesting ranking because we don’t know how much Texas A&M will be dinged for letting a winnable Texas game get out of whack in Austin. A&M only has 1 true résumé win at Notre Dame, but it’s clearly one that the selection committee values. A&M has nearly an identity résumé as Ole Miss. I tend to think that A&M won’t free fall for losing to a respectable, but underachieving Texas team, who will likely be in the top 15.
5. Oregon
The Ducks have quietly racked up 4 consecutive wins vs. Power Conference teams with a winning record. Oregon might not have a premier win because of how the Penn State victory aged, but 6 wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams is nothing to scoff at. Just for a little perspective, Ohio State has just as many. The Ducks might not have a clear path to a Round 1 bye, but getting a 5-seed and facing a Group of 5 team in Eugene would be the next-best thing.
4. Texas Tech
Welcome to 2025, when perhaps the most likely result of the weekend is Texas Tech winning a Big 12 Championship and having a legitimate argument for a Round 1 bye. The Red Raiders have won 5 consecutive games by 3 scores, including the blowout win against BYU, who’ll get a shot at revenge on Saturday. The selection committee values the “eye test,” and Texas Tech has passed that with flying colors because of how dominant its been in every game that Behren Morton has been healthy.
3. Georgia
Georgia could lose the SEC Championship and still potentially have a path to a Round 1 bye. That’s what UGA earned after winning an ugly game against Georgia Tech for its 4th win vs. an AP Top 25 team this year. The Dawgs might not have been as dominant as they were in the first part of November, but they did what they had to do in order to be locked into a top-4 spot heading into conference championship weekend. Whether UGA would’ve been locked into a top-4 guy without having to play in the SEC Championship, well, that’s another story.
2. Indiana
The funny thing about Indiana’s résumé is that nobody is talking about how it doesn’t feature a team with a winning record in the latter half of the schedule. But why has the conversation been so different than last year? The Oregon win. It’s held up. The win at Iowa and the dominant win against Illinois added some depth to the résumé. IU’s in position to have a Round 1 bye if it at least plays a competitive game against Ohio State, where the No. 1 overall seed will be up for grabs.
1. Ohio State
Be gone, Michigan demons. That might’ve made the Big Ten Championship irrelevant for the Buckeyes’ Round 1 bye aspirations because of how dominant these victories have been. Forget trailing in the second half. Ohio State hasn’t had a 1-score lead in the 4th quarter since September. The Buckeyes likely won’t be playing in Round 1 like they did last year. Whether that changes the likelihood to a national title remains to be seen.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
