Ah, yes. We’ve reached that glorious time of year when Tuesday nights give us a Playoff rankings show that we can all agree on.
Cheers to that, friends.
If you’re able to actually watch the first Playoff rankings on ESPN on Tuesday night at 7 p.m. ET (that was a YouTube TV blackout reference), you’ll get to see the unveiling of the poll that actually matters.
(Sign up with Sling TV or Fubo to watch Tuesday night’s CFP programming.)
How much will it resemble the AP Poll? That’s a fair question. It’s also fair to wonder if Ohio State will be the prevailing No. 1 like it’s been in every post-Week 1 AP Poll. Does Indiana have the better résumé? Also, how many SEC teams will be in the top 12?
Let’s answer some of those questions with a prediction of what the first top 12 will look like:
12. Oklahoma
That Tennessee win was monumental for all the obvious reasons. The Sooners got their first true road win vs. an AP Top 25 team in the Brent Venables era, which is why they still have Playoff life. Of course, that’ll be put to the test at Alabama in a couple weeks, but starting off in the top 12 feels likely for a squad who has a 2-1 record vs. top-15 teams this year.
11. Texas
If you believe that Texas is starting behind Oklahoma, remember who won that head-to-head. It was Texas, who has quietly beaten 2 top-10 teams and is riding a 4-game winning streak since the Florida loss. Quality wins slightly favor the Longhorns in that discussion. The bigger collective groan will come when the ACC watches 2 of its 1-loss teams (Virginia and Louisville) come in ranked behind OU and Texas. The good news for those 2 teams is that Texas still has to play Georgia in Athens and Texas A&M at home in the regular-season finale. The Longhorns won’t get an at-large bid by just skating by down the stretch.
10. Notre Dame
I could argue that Notre Dame’s ranking should be what has people most riled up, but the aforementioned SEC teams rounding out the top 12 will likely earn that distinction. The Irish have won 6 consecutive games after a pair of thrilling losses to Miami and Texas A&M. One could point out that USC is the only one of those Power Conference teams who has a winning conference record. In fact, those combined conference records among the Power Conference foes that Notre Dame beat is just 6-20. But hey, it helps to be a team coming off a national runner-up season with star power.
9. Texas Tech
Dominating at Utah and Houston matters for that résumé. It’ll matter even more if the Red Raiders can dominate a huge top-10 showdown against BYU (more on that in a minute), but for now, this feels like a worthy top-10 inclusion. The No. 1 run defense in the nation has been as advertised in the trenches after a Cody Campbell-fueled transfer portal haul. Now with Behren Morton back — he was out for the lone loss at defending Big 12 champ Arizona State — there’s no reason to believe that Texas Tech will be disrespected in the first Playoff Poll.
8. BYU
The lowest-ranked unbeaten will be a BYU squad who just continues to defy expectations after starting the season unranked in the AP Poll. The bizarre Jake Retzlaff fallout didn’t derail Kalani Sitake’s squad. The last remaining unbeaten in Big 12 play turned some heads the last couple weeks with wins vs. Utah in the Holy War and then at Iowa State, where it entered the day as a slight underdog. It’s weird to say that there’s a bit of skepticism for a Big 12 team that’s 19-2 since the start of last season, but that can change with that aforementioned top-10 showdown against Texas Tech.
7. Ole Miss
Sure, the LSU win hasn’t aged particularly well, but going into Norman and beating a 7-2 Oklahoma squad will be big in that first ranking. It’s what could give Ole Miss grace to make the field at 10-2, though the odds of running the table en route to 11-1 now seem fairly likely with The Citadel, home vs. Florida and an Egg Bowl at Mississippi State remaining. And while “quality losses” aren’t as significant as some like to believe, losing at Georgia after having a 2-score lead in the 4th quarter wasn’t exactly a bad loss.
6. Oregon
Go figure that Oregon and Alabama will likely be 2 of the highest-ranked 1-loss teams, yet both suffered a double-digit loss. Winning at Penn State in that atmosphere shouldn’t count for nothing, even if that win aged in inexplicably awful fashion. The combined conference records of the 5 Power Conference foes that Oregon beat is 4-23. Oregon should be ranked behind Ole Miss, BYU and Texas Tech. Will that happen, though? Don’t bank on it.
5. Georgia
Georgia has a floor and a ceiling. Why? Alabama has the head-to-head against Georgia, and Georgia has the head-to-head against Ole Miss. All 3 are 1-loss teams in the SEC. Ergo, UGA will be sandwiched somewhere between those squads. One could point out the fact that this hasn’t been a dominant Georgia team. Game control metrics probably won’t favor a team with a halftime lead in 1 of its 6 SEC games. At the same time, a 1-loss team whose lone blemish is a 3-point defeat against Alabama will get a favorable start in the Playoff Poll.
4. Alabama
Nobody else who figures to start in the top 12 has a double-digit loss to an unranked team, so why is Alabama a lock to be the highest-ranked 1-loss team? Well, the Tide beat 4 consecutive AP Top 25 teams. No SEC team had ever done that. The first 3 of those matchups were against undefeated SEC teams, too. As bad as the Florida State loss was, that stretch redeemed an Alabama résumé that has 4 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power Conference teams.
3. Texas A&M
You knew at the time that beating Notre Dame in South Bend would mean a ton for A&M’s Playoff chances. That’s proven to be the case, and it’s doing the heavy lifting because the rest of A&M’s résumé is lacking. Like Oregon, the conference records are lacking. A 6-20 mark in SEC play among those A&M foes will prevent a top-2 ranking, though also like with Oregon with Penn State, winning at LSU in that fashion means something. It also means something that A&M is 8-0 with 4 remaining unbeatens.
2. Indiana
At this point, there’s no denying what Indiana has done. Not only does it have arguably the best win in America by ending the nation’s longest home winning streak with a double-digit victory at Oregon, but it also has 4 Big Ten wins by 3 scores or more. IU has been dominant on both sides of the ball, and whatever eye test metric that was in question last year certainly isn’t in question this year. The better question might be whether the Hoosiers would be ranked No. 1 if they had played a more competitive game at Ohio State last year. Fair or not, that perception will likely keep IU at No. 2.
1. Ohio State
The Buckeyes have been the clear No. 1 team for the vast majority of the season, perhaps with the Indiana win at Oregon as the lone thing calling it into question. Besides beating preseason No. 1 Texas in a defensively dominant showing to kick off the season, they blew out a solid Washington squad who hadn’t lost a home game since 2021 and they cruised past 6-win Illinois on the road. They haven’t had a down-to-the-wire game since the opener, which is why the defending champs figure to start the Playoff rankings as the top dog.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
