Let’s be honest. Week 13? They won’t make movies about it.
Nobody in the top 14 of the Playoff rankings lost. Chaos, there was not. We had Oregon and Oklahoma both win ranked matchups while BYU fended off Cincinnati and Utah pulled out a wild one against Kansas State. Seemingly everything that could’ve caused a significant shakeup didn’t happen.
Consider that my way of saying don’t expect a whole lot of change with Tuesday night’s Playoff Poll.
Here’s a prediction at what that’ll look like:
12. Utah
The selection committee loves Utah. Period. It doesn’t seem to matter that Utah has just 2 wins vs. Power Conference teams with winning records and 0 wins vs. the current AP Top 25. The 31-point win vs. Cincinnati hasn’t aged as well as the Utes could’ve hoped for, but being in the top 12 going into a regular-season finale against 5-6 Kansas isn’t a bad place to be. Chaos is the only thing that’ll get Utah into the field (the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ and ACC champ will likely be inserted into the top 12).
11. BYU
Barring a stunning home loss to UCF as a 3-score favorite (via BetMGM), BYU will be in an interesting spot heading into conference championship week. It could likely need to beat Texas Tech to make the field. Alternatively, 2-loss teams like Alabama, Notre Dame or Oklahoma could suffer upset losses and open up another scenario. A 1-loss BYU could be at No. 9-10 going into conference championship weekend and be in the position that SMU was in last year. That precedent would be the best-case scenario for BYU’s rooting interest during Rivalry Week.
10. Alabama
It’s wild to think of the position that Alabama finds itself in heading into Rivalry Week. It became the first team in SEC history to beat 4 consecutive AP Top 25 teams without any rest, yet it’s ranked behind multiple fellow 2-loss teams. The selection committee’s post-Week 12 ranking of the Tide behind Notre Dame has now set the stage for Alabama to be in a win-and-in scenario for the Iron Bowl. Why? By winning that game, it would lead the same SMU precedent that played out last year. Alabama would earn an SEC Championship berth and not be knocked out of the field with a loss. Alabama might be the only team left who can both earn a first-round bye and miss the field altogether. Get your popcorn ready.
9. Notre Dame
A Stanford win is the only thing separating the Irish from the Playoff. That résumé now includes wins against multiple teams in the current AP Top 25. The selection committee will appreciate the fact that it didn’t have to watch the Irish’s ball control after it led Syracuse 21-0 before the offense took a snap. The decisive victories have helped the Irish. The only thing that can apparently hurt the Irish is if Miami (FL) is now inching closer to a side-by-side comp against the Notre Dame team it beat back in Week 1. But at this point, a Miami team that’ll also be idle during conference championship weekend has likely lost all hope that it’ll get bumped past the Irish.
8. Oklahoma
Three weeks, 3 wins vs. AP Top 25 teams. That’s 5 wins vs. teams who were in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup, and 3 of those teams (Michigan, Alabama and Tennessee) are still ranked. Not too shabby. OU is the top 2-loss team as a result of that, which included handing Alabama its first home loss vs. SEC competition since 2019. Is the offense flawed? Sure. OU isn’t controlling games like fellow 2-loss Notre Dame, though schedule has certainly played a part in that. But the Sooners are a win vs. an interim LSU coach away from reaching the Playoff for the first time in 6 years, and likely earning a home game.
7. Ole Miss
Lost in the shuffle of this Lane Kiffin drama is what the Ole Miss Playoff picture would look like if disaster struck in the Egg Bowl with a loss. It’s not just about whether Kiffin’s status as the head coach would impact the postseason outlook in the eyes of the selection committee. It’s whether the résumé would hold up with a loss. Would the Oklahoma win in Norman give Ole Miss a floor? As it stands, FanDuel has the Playoff odds at -470. For what it’s worth, Ole Miss’s odds to win on Friday at Mississippi State are -275, which means there’s still a greater chance that Ole Miss makes the Playoff than losing this game. Of all the things that can happen over the next week for Ole Miss, a home Playoff game still seems to be the most likely outcome.
6. Oregon
Beating USC could move Oregon up a spot ahead of Ole Miss. If the selection committee runs it back with the same exact top 12, you know what people will say. Did they even watch any games this weekend? Of course, nobody in the top 12 lost. But this is an easy opportunity for the selection committee to reward a top-15 win and make it seem like these résumés are more fluid than they really are. Oregon benefits from that and moves closer to a home Playoff game.
5. Texas Tech
You can’t argue that Texas Tech’s spot in the field is up for grabs. Even losing at West Virginia as a 23.5-point favorite likely wouldn’t doom the Red Raiders’ Playoff chances. Why? It’s all about staying in the top 10, not the top 12. I’d argue that Vanderbilt dominating at Tennessee and/or Miami doing so at Pitt are the only teams who could legitimately threaten to get into the top 10 and jump Tech. Even if that chaos scenario did happen, let’s also not forget that Joey McGuire’s squad can lose and still get into the Big 12 Championship with either an Arizona State loss or a BYU loss and a Utah win. More likely than missing the field is Texas Tech locking in a Round 1 bye.
4. Georgia
It’s not just that Georgia has flexed its muscles at the right time. It’s that UGA has 3 wins vs. teams that’ll be in the Playoff Poll (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas). Averaging 40.7 points in those 3 games helped UGA become the top 1-loss team. A spot in the field is already a lock. You can’t even get odds on the Dawgs to make the field because at worst, Georgia is 10-2 heading into Selection Sunday. Well, I suppose 10-3 is still possible, but we’ve already outlined why a team isn’t getting bumped out of the field for a conference title loss. UGA is in, and if all breaks right, it’ll be in position to earn a Round 1 bye without having to play in the SEC Championship.
3. Texas A&M
The Aggies survived the potential of Georgia leapfrogging them after the Texas win. The question now is if Texas A&M can do to Texas what Georgia did. Granted, the Aggies are traveling to Austin, where they can potentially clinch their first conference title game appearance in the 21st century. It’s somewhat irrelevant now that schedule luck has favored A&M in conference play. With nothing but ranked opponents left, A&M’s 2025 story will be defined by how it stacks up against elite foes.
2. Indiana
The idle Hoosiers got a slight résumé bump with Oregon taking care of USC, and now, they can clinch a trip to the Big Ten Championship with a win on Saturday against lowly Purdue. If that happens, the No. 1 overall seed figures to be at stake in Indianapolis. What a time to be alive for a program that hasn’t won a postseason game of any kind since 1991.
1. Ohio State
The only thing that’s going to prevent Ohio State from being an overwhelming favorite going into the Playoff is if it loses 1 of these next 2 games before Selection Sunday. Then again, we saw the Buckeyes lose at home to Michigan last year and what did that really prove? That the Wolverines still have their number? Perhaps that’s not what a college football purist wants to hear as the preamble for a heated rivalry game, but as it relates to the Playoff, it’s about the only bit of intrigue left for an Ohio State team who hasn’t even had a single-digit 4th quarter lead since September.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
