I hate to be that guy, but I just need to get this off my chest. It’s a thought that I had at the conclusion of Week 11. Maybe it’s controversial, but somebody needs to say it.
If you’re seeking alternative YouTube TV options for Tuesday night’s Playoff rankings, don’t. It’s not worth it. There are times when it could be worth it, but the Week 12 Playoff Poll won’t be one of them.
Maybe that’s a discouraging thing to say to you, reader of this Playoff prediction column. I don’t care. My objective is to give you the truth.
Last week, I gave you the truth by predicting that Texas and Oklahoma would round out the top 12, and that it would differ from the AP Poll. We had all 12 teams accurately predicted, just not in the perfect order with teams ranked No. 6-9. That’s fine.
This week, we’ll give you the exact top 12 so that you don’t have to watch the rankings show:
12. BYU
After a demoralizing loss to Texas Tech, I tend to think that BYU won’t fall off the face of the earth. Two-loss Vanderbilt and 1-loss Georgia Tech are teams worth watching in this spot, but BYU losing on the road to a top-10 team for its first defeat of the year will provide a bit of grace. The Cougars have that all-important Utah win in the Holy War that should be a buffer of sorts. BYU will likely be tasked with winning the final 3 regular season games, one of which includes a trip to Cincinnati, in order to get into the top 10 before a potential Texas Tech rematch in the Big 12 Championship.
11. Oklahoma
The idle Sooners won’t get a drastic shakeup. They still have 2 wins against teams ranked in the current AP Top 25 and 2 losses against teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. That’s a combination for minimal variance. Beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa to hand the Tide their first conference loss of the season would change that conversation. For now, though, OU will stay locked in just outside the top 10.
10. Texas
Last week’s ranking of Texas over Oklahoma confirmed that the selection committee values head-to-head when it’s convenient. It’s convenient with Texas, who beat Oklahoma convincingly on a neutral site and has that Vandy win. Both of those victories are better than Oklahoma’s, and I’d argue they’re better than any win that Notre Dame has on its résumé. But with the selection committee putting the Irish as the top 2-loss team based on the response after those “quality losses” to start the season, it’s safe to say that’s not changing.
9. Notre Dame
Eight consecutive wins has given Notre Dame the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the selection committee. Whether that’s justified isn’t up to me. If it were, I would point out that the Power Conference foes that Notre Dame beat are a combined 7-21 in conference play. Again, I’m not in charge of pointing that out, nor am I in charge of pointing out that Notre Dame’s 2 wins away from South Bend came against teams that are a combined 3-16 overall. If I were in charge of that, I wouldn’t have the Irish as the top-ranked 2-loss team.
8. Oregon
Winning at Iowa is no small feat, especially with how nasty those conditions were. That was a hard-fought win against a 6-win team who has, oddly enough, turned into the best thing on Oregon’s résumé. As it stands, though, the Ducks now lack a win against a team that’s in the current AP Top 25. The irony is that beating a ranked Iowa team knocked the Hawkeyes team out of the Top 25. Oregon is still set up well to get an at-large bid, but that first ranking suggested the selection committee isn’t necessarily sold on the body of work because of how that Penn State win aged.
7. Texas Tech
You could argue that blowing out BYU should have Texas Tech even higher than No. 7. Simply taking the Cougars’ spot might not seem significant, but there’s something else worth monitoring with Tech and BYU. If both teams are going into the Big 12 title game with 1 loss and it’s a grudge match, that sets up a likely scenario in which both teams are in. That’s based on last year’s SMU precedent. Even if the Red Raiders are still outside of the top 5-6, that’s a nice silver lining that didn’t feel as likely before the first ranking.
6. Ole Miss
If you’re upset that I’ve got Ole Miss here instead of Texas Tech, remember this. Whatever gap that existed a week ago has narrowed by virtue of Ole Miss facing The Citadel and Tech blowing out a Top 25 team for the second time. And while “quality losses” are a bit overrated, I do wonder if the selection committee will value Ole Miss losing on the road to top-5 Georgia after blowing a 9-point 4th quarter lead is less of a knock than losing to unranked Arizona State, albeit without Behren Morton. It won’t be surprising if Ole Miss gets leapfrogged, but for now, it’s 1 spot ahead of the surging Red Raiders.
5. Georgia
Georgia being sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss makes sense considering that’s where you’ll find the Dawgs’ lone loss and best win. Beating Mississippi State like a drum won’t necessarily help the résumé in a significant way, but it will push back on the trend of playing in nail-biters in SEC play. The good news for Georgia is that it likely still has a loss to give. The bad news is that it has a pair of legitimate contenders (Texas and Georgia Tech) still on the schedule, which means nothing is guaranteed.
4. Alabama
Alabama and Louisville are the only teams with 3 wins vs. AP Top 25 squads, which is why the Tide have overcome that horrific loss to Florida State. As we outlined with Notre Dame, winning 8 in a row packs some punch. There’s a level of consistency that the selection committee valued by putting the Tide as the top-ranked 1-loss team. That’ll still be the case after making sure LSU didn’t feed off interim coach energy in Tuscaloosa.
3. Texas A&M
The selection committee told us last week that Texas A&M‘s win at Notre Dame wasn’t quite as good as Indiana’s win at Oregon. That’s fine for the Aggies. They’re still in ideal position at No. 3 after drubbing Mizzou to knock the Tigers out of the AP Top 25. Sure, Mizzou had a true freshman quarterback in his first career start. A&M also racked up 220 second-half rushing yards against a top-15 run defense on the road. The Aggies are 4-0 in true road games and worthy of being in the conversation for the No. 2 spot, but it’s hard to envision the selection committee reversing course after last week’s initial ranking.
2. Indiana
As IU was facing its first defeat of the season against Penn State with an interim coach, you already saw some of those 2024 narratives resurface. Poke holes in the depth of the résumé, if you will, but that win at Oregon got even better with the Ducks winning at Iowa. Indiana likely won’t be moved off that No. 2 line unless it falters before the Big Ten Championship, though if A&M beats Texas in Austin to get to 12-0, those conversations will be had. Until then, the Hoosiers aren’t going anywhere.
1. Ohio State
Let’s not diminish what Ohio State has done. That Texas win has come all the way back around, and while beating Washington and Illinois on the road in convincing fashion won’t necessarily count as wins vs. the current Top 25, that still added some depth to the résumé. Texas remains the only team to keep it within 17 points against Ohio State, which is why the Buckeyes aren’t in jeopardy of losing that top spot if they win out.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
