If you’re a fan of the 8-team Playoff idea as opposed to the current 12-team model, you’re in luck. You can simply pretend that the Playoff is beginning on New Year’s Eve and that Round 1 didn’t actually matter. I wouldn’t recommend telling that to people like Ty Simpson or Michael Irvin, both of whom were as fired up as one could be to celebrate their team winning a Playoff game.
The quarterfinals, though? They matter. At least they matter more to the 8-team Playoff enthusiasts.
And for the anti-Group of 5 crowd, guess what? Your angst is a distant memory.
Here’s how I see those 4 matchups playing out (spreads via BetMGM):
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (FL) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5)
What if Miami’s defensive showing against Texas A&M wasn’t just the byproduct of Marcel Reed and some untimely College Station wind? Is it possible that too many people are discounting the possibility that Miami’s defense might be a top-2 unit remaining in the field? It’s certainly possible, and considering the last time that we saw Ohio State face an elite defense (Indiana), it struggled to string scoring drives together. With Ryan Day back calling plays, could we see the Buckeyes perhaps start off a bit slow? You bet.
But any scenario that involves Miami pulling off a significant upset would include Carson Beck making big-time throws against perhaps the top defense in the sport. Can I see that happening for 60 minutes? I can’t. Not against Caleb Downs and that Ohio State secondary that’s as good as there is. Beck will ultimately play with fire a little too much to prevent Miami from staying in this one. That sets up some short fields in the second half.
The Buckeyes overcome a quiet start and cruise late after Carnell Tate takes over.
Score prediction: Ohio State 31, Miami 14
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
This is exactly the type of matchup that a 12-team Playoff supporter can point to and praise. We obviously wouldn’t have gotten to see these 1-loss teams play in the previous version of college football. Well, at least not for a national championship. But instead, we’ll get a matchup of a pair of teams who have done everything and then some to shake off their lone blemish in decisive fashion.
Of course, Texas Tech hasn’t lost a game in which Behren Morton started. The Fightin’ Cody Campbells won all of those games by at least 3 scores. Given how much Oregon struggled defensively in the second half against James Madison, perhaps that trend can continue. Alternatively, Dan Lanning might be able to convince his team that the second half against James Madison was actually a loss. This is a bounce-back game for that unit. Of equal significance, it’s a chance for Dante Moore to show the world that these are the moments when he’s at his best.
Who do I trust late in a close game? The guy who had to rally late in hostile atmospheres at Iowa and at Penn State? Or the guy who has 19 pass attempts in the 4th quarter all season? Give me Moore and the Ducks to fend off the Big 12 champs.
Score prediction: Oregon 27, Texas Tech 24
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (-7)
Even as I sit here and see that line, it feels like a typo. Indiana as a touchdown favorite against Alabama says more about Curt Cignetti’s squad than it says about Kalen DeBoer‘s. The Hoosiers have slayed the Big Ten giants, and now, the question is whether they can slay one of the SEC giants for the first time under Cignetti in what would be program’s first bowl victory since 1991.
Yeah, that’s a lot. Indiana has shown it can handle a lot. A team that ranks in the top 4 in both scoring offense and scoring defense is well-rounded, and not just because it has a starting quarterback with both a Heisman Trophy and an active LinkedIn profile. Fernando Mendoza has been as clutch as any quarterback in recent memory. Jayden Daniels in 2023 is the only Power Conference player in the last decade with a better quarterback rating in the second half/overtime than Mendoza (min. 100 passes). This doesn’t have to be a game in which all things are clicking for him. I don’t expect they will be from start to finish against an Alabama defense that’s getting another late-season boost with the return of LT Overton.
But in the extremely likely event that Alabama’s historically ineffective rushing attack is held in check against one of the top run defenses in the country, the Tide aren’t running away from IU. This instead turns into a game in which Indiana’s resilience — not its pure dominance — is on full display. The Hoosiers don’t fall behind 17-0 like Alabama did at Oklahoma, but they’re again able to overcome a late deficit with key conversions late.
A go-ahead score from Charlie Becker gives Mendoza and Cignetti another glorious moment in a storybook season.
Score prediction: Indiana 27, Alabama 24
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (-6.5)
You can make the case that Ole Miss has already taken a massive step toward winning the Lane Kiffin breakup by dominating an improved Tulane team in a rematch that had even higher stakes. You could also make the case that if the Ole Miss offense sputters against an improved Georgia team, Kiffin’s ego is the real winner. After all, his offense put up 35 points and didn’t punt until the 4th quarter. It blew a late 2-score lead in Athens, but it still checked a ton of boxes with how late it took Georgia to adjust.
Based on what Georgia showed the world in its last 5 games of the season — that included allowing 2 combined touchdowns to Arch Manning, Haynes King and Ty Simpson while recording 7 sacks — do we think more adjustments could be coming? Like, do we think there’s perhaps more of a book on Trinidad Chambliss? Sure. That bodes well for Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann.
There’s also more of a book on Gunner Stockton than there was in this first matchup, wherein he didn’t have an incompletion in the second half. That game served as one of several examples of how Stockton has grown in massive ways since last year’s Sugar Bowl loss to Notre Dame. That game, his surroundings weren’t favorable for someone in his first career start. His climb was even steeper matching up against a top-2 defense. This time around, that competition isn’t nearly as proven. Ole Miss hasn’t shown it can keep a quarterback of Stockton’s caliber out of rhythm. Not for 60 minutes. Hence, why it allowed at least 5.7 yards per play in 6 of 8 post-September games.
Redemption will be on the mind for Ole Miss, but Stockton and Georgia getting some Sugar Bowl redemption will be had by night’s end.
Score prediction: Georgia 35, Ole Miss 21
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
