Projecting toughest 3-game stretches for every SEC East team (with record)

Earlier this summer, we looked at each Eastern Division team’s toughest three-game stretches this season, taking into account opponents, location of game and location on the calendar.

RELATED: Ranking SEC’s toughest home schedules | Ranking SEC’s toughest road schedules

Taking it a step further now that we’re a mere three weeks away from openers, we’ll try and determine each team’s record during the stretch and how it will shape the remaining schedule.

Toughest 3-game stretches for SEC East teams

Florida (Oct. 3-17)

• vs. Ole Miss
• at Mizzou
• at LSU

Notes: Like Georgia, the Gators’ toughest stretch begins Oct. 3 and doesn’t involve the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party later on in Jacksonville … If Florida isn’t careful, there’s a chance Jim McElwain’s team could enter the Georgia game on Halloween riding a four-game losing streak (if Tennessee’s as good as we expect) … Many consider Ole Miss to be the favorite at The Swamp on Oct. 3, but I’d argue there’s serious upset potential here … Florida’s trip to Baton Rouge is its toughest game this season.

FINAL SAY: Florida won’t be favored in any of these three games, but the home battle with the Rebels is one of our big upset picks this season. The Gators could then use that momentum to take out Mizzou away from home. The safe bet is 1-2 here, but with some luck, Florida may challenge the (East) Tigers to take 2 of 3 during this stretch. The inexperience on offense makes winning in Death Valley insurmountable.

Georgia (Oct. 3-17)

• vs. Alabama
• at Tennessee
• vs. Mizzou

Notes: October’s a brutal month for the Bulldogs, everyone’s preseason Eastern Division favorite thanks to the noticeable talent gap on both sides of the football … Georgia’s bye week doesn’t come until after the team’s been physically-drained following this brutal stretch … To win the division, the Bulldogs must find a way to win at least two of the games, preferably against the Vols and Tigers if you hold value in tiebreakers.

FINAL SAY: No team in the East has a tougher three-game slate than the Bulldogs, who still have to play Auburn and Georgia Tech over the final three weeks of the regular season in November. Georgia has to find a way to win at least two of these games to stay out front in the East. The home matchup with the Crimson Tide is crucial, but the Tennessee and Mizzou games are more favorable. Somehow, the Bulldogs tip-toe the minefield and win all three to move into the Top 5 nationally.

Kentucky (Sept. 12-26)

• at South Carolina
• vs. Florida
• vs. Mizzou

Notes: I’m going to cheat with this one a bit. There’s no doubt Kentucky’s toughest three-game stretch is Auburn-Mississippi State-Tennessee in October, but those games will hold little meaning unless a treacherous September kicks off with a bang … The Wildcats could theoretically play their way out of the East race after the first month unless they find a way to take two games from the Gamecocks, Gators and Tigers.

FINAL SAY: Does Mark Stoops know something we don’t this season? He seemed confident after Saturday’s scrimmage that this year’s team has a special feel to it, a squad capable of reaching the postseason. After beating the Gamecocks last season, the Wildcats are obviously not intimidated by the road trip to Columbia. The Gators and Tigers present a similar obstacle. Let’s go with 1-2 with the lengthy losing skid to Florida snapped in historic fashion.

Mizzou (Oct. 3-17)

• vs. South Carolina
• vs. Florida
• at Georgia

Notes: The Tigers’ shot at a third straight division title will depend on how well Mizzou plays against its Eastern Division rivals who just so happen to load the October schedule … Second-half contests against Tennessee and Mississippi State are just as important, but by that time, the Tigers will know what they have to do to reach Atlanta … And winning out is something Mizzou has accomplished each of the last two seasons.

FINAL SAY: The Tigers have beaten all of these teams before since joining the SEC, including the Gators in consecutive years. Make it three straight against two programs not quite as lethal in the division this season. The showdown in Athens is arguably Mizzou’s most important game of the season, especially after last year’s 34-point embarrassment. Two wins and a close loss at Georgia is realistic.

South Carolina (Oct. 31-Nov. 14)

• at Texas A&M
• at Tennessee
• vs. Florida

Notes: The Gamecocks already have the toughest non-conference schedule in the SEC with three games against bowl teams from last season, so a challenging road slate only makes matters worse for a team expecting to win seven games (per oddsmakers) this season … The Vols have had South Carolina’s number the last two years with consecutive late-game comebacks … The Gamecocks’ home bout with Florida on Nov. 14 could be the difference in a step closer to bowl eligibility or a fall toward mediocrity.

FINAL SAY: As far as bowl eligibility is concerned, South Carolina must win at least one of these three games down the stretch to avoid a collapse. The Gamecocks will be favored against the Gators and the matchup with Tennessee, as most of them are, should be close. If Steve Spurrier’s team can start off on the right foot against the Aggies, it will alleviate some of the pressure over those next two weeks. We’re going with 1-2, but 2-1 isn’t out of the question.

Tennessee (Sept. 26-Oct. 10)

• at Florida
• vs. Arkansas
• vs. Georgia

Notes: Competing in the East doesn’t happen unless the Vols beat the Gators, something they haven’t done in 10 years … If there’s a favorable matchup here, I’d go with Arkansas based on Tennessee’s expected strengths within the front seven against a run-heavy offense … The winner of the Tennessee-Georgia matchup has the upper-hand in the division prior to the midseason point.

FINAL SAY:

Vanderbilt (Oct. 17-31)

• at South Carolina
• vs. Mizzou
• at Houston

Notes: This one’s debatable since every game will be a challenge for the Commodores this season, but Vanderbilt has been awful on the road in recent years and this year’s slate includes trips to Gainesville and Oxford that aren’t even mentioned here … A Halloween showdown against the Cougars at brand-new TDECU Stadium in Houston is a must-win for Vanderbilt, a team facing a near impossible task of getting to six wins this season.

FINAL SAY: This will be the make or break point for the Commodores, a team on the verge of chaos with another winless SEC finish. Vanderbilt must find a way to take the game against the Cougars since the first two games during this stretch are an incredible challenge. We’re guessing 0-3, but Houston’s not a world-beater. There just doesn’t appear to be enough offense yet to pick the Commodores.

Brad Crawford