The College Football Playoff selection committee has its hands full handicapping the nation’s elite, trying to decipher why Team A is better than Team B through several points of emphasis.
We’ve tried breaking it down on a broad scale, maneuvering through Power 5 conferences to differentiate which teams deliver based on strength of schedule and results against common opponents, two factors that were heavily-weighted by the committee based on their first Top 4.
*Rankings are based on current position in CFP; Conference index rating generated by average of CFP rankings
1. SEC (7.3 CFI) — Owners of seven of the final eight BCS national championships, the SEC’s regarded as college football’s most dominant league by anyone who follows the sport. The conference has a strong grip on recruiting nationally, employs the top coaches and has placed more players in the NFL than any other league for eight consecutive seasons. With the initial success of the ratings giant SEC Network, its power as a behemoth is just beginning.
Best team: No. 1 Mississippi State
Contenders: No. 3 Auburn, No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 6 Alabama, No. 11 Georgia, No. 19 LSU
College Football Playoff: Leave it to the SEC to be the first league to place two of its teams in the Final Four at season’s end. The Western Division could be college football’s best-ever with five teams currently ranked in the CFP’s Top 20. The Playoff was supposed to eliminate ‘SEC Bias’, a fictional gripe that dominated the BCS era, but it has instead strengthened the conference’s reign over college football thanks to strength of schedule.
2. Big-12 (13.2) — The balance of power has shifted in the Big XII this season thanks to preseason favorite Oklahoma’s fall from grace through eight games. Anchored by one of the nation’s top offenses, Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs have worn the Cinderella slipper for several weeks and Kansas State’s only loss thus far was an out-of-conference showdown against defending SEC champ Auburn.
Best team: No. 7 TCU
Contenders: No. 8 Kansas State, No. 13 Baylor, No. 18 Oklahoma, No. 20 West Virginia
College Football Playoff: The SEC appears to have an adversary worthy of mention this season thanks to the Big XII’s emergence as college football’s second-best league. TCU and Kansas State meet in two weeks in a matchup perceived as a Playoff elimination game. Baylor would have a stronger case if the Bears’ non-conference schedule was worth mentioning.
3. Pac-12 (13.2) — Believed to be on a near-even wavelength with the SEC in August, the Pac-12’s fallen short of national expectations this season thanks to unexpected multi-loss teams Stanford, UCLA and USC. Boasting its collection of veteran quarterbacks led by Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, the league was expected to have two national championship contenders and a handful of powerful offenses that could challenge the SEC’s elite at the top.
Best team: No. 5 Oregon
Contenders: No. 12 Arizona, No. 14 Arizona State, No. 22 UCLA
College Football Playoff: If the Ducks win out, Oregon’s in as one of four final teams competing for the national title. A non-conference win over Michigan State in September is viewed by most to be college football’s best win this season out of league play. Oregon’s only loss came to Arizona on Oct. 2 when the Ducks had several injuries up front. The committee took that into account under the ‘relevant factors’ point of emphasis during its first ranking of teams.
4. Big Ten (13.0) — Long known as the SEC’s punching bag during BCS championship season, the Big Ten’s a much stronger league when storied programs Michigan and Penn State are more relevant nationally. Both programs, mired in mediocrity for much different reasons, no longer sign dominant recruiting classes and coaxing voters to look in their direction’s difficult when the overall strength of the conference continues its recent decline.
Best team: No. 8 Michigan State
Contenders: No. 15 Nebraska, No. 16 Ohio State
College Football Playoff: The Big Ten actually has a stronger CFI than two other Power 5 leagues, but that’s due largely in part to a college football low three teams represented in the first CFP rankings. Michigan State’s its best shot this season to win out and capture the first Playoff trophy thanks to one of the nation’s top defenses. By comparison, there’s two in the SEC just as talented on that side of the football.
5. ACC (18.0) — For several years, the ACC’s been broken into tiers based on level of success. Florida State and Clemson have clearly been the league’s two best teams while the darkhorse roll seems to change form with new competitors annually. The ACC’s better as a whole when Virginia Tech and Miami are ranked in the Top 25 and at this time, neither program seems to be in great shape with lame duck head coaches.
Best team: No. 2 Florida State
Contenders: No. 21 Clemson, No. 24 Duke, No. 25 Louisville
College Football Playoff: With only one team — defending national champion Florida State — within striking distance of the Playoff, the ACC has a substantial climb to make in college football’s Power 5 pecking order. The Seminoles should cruise to a 13-0 regular-season finish on the strength of wins over three ranked teams and an ACC Championship victory, earning their spot in the CFP with last year’s Heisman at quarterback.
