Ranking the 12 biggest swing factors in next season’s College Football Playoff

Spring football is here, and the College Football Playoff picture should get clearer and clearer as we move through the 15 practice sessions. So many of college football’s heavy-hitters are going through some sort of reload. 

Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, and Ole Miss all ranked outside the top 100 in returning production, per Bill Connelly. Tennessee and Notre Dame have less to replace in terms of quantity, but major playmakers walked out the door nonetheless. Michigan will have enormous weight on the shoulders of a true freshman quarterback. The same might be true at Alabama. Clemson and Penn State look like clear front-runners, and neither have been reliable bets in recent years. 

Predicting a champion in 2025 won’t be as simple as it has been in past years. The 2024 season ushered in a new level of parity around the sport. Further talent smoothing could produce even more volatility in 2025. 

But at its core, the first 12-team Playoff produced what its predecessor often did: a champion that was, in fact, the best in the land. 

Ohio State was the most talented. Ohio State had the best roster. Few expected the Buckeyes to take the path they did to a title, but they got there all the same. And a couple of key players made championship-caliber plays along the way. 

Jack Sawyer and Will Howard swung the postseason. Sawyer ripped the semifinal game away from Texas with a single play. Howard posted QBRs of 98.8, 97.7, 90.1, and 99.1 in his 4 Playoff games — 3 of his 4 best games all year.

Who swings the Playoff in 2025? 

Below, you’ll see 12 names. You’ll see players and coaches. You’ll see guys who have the ability to turn darkhorses into full-blown contenders, or turn contenders into disappointments. There is a cutoff, however. I’m looking only at teams whose odds on BetMGM are better than 50/1. As intrigued as I am by Bill Belichick at North Carolina, he’s not leading that Tar Heels roster to a title in his first season coaching college football. As much as I like Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State, the Sun Devils winning the Playoff seems like too big a step. 

Let’s get to it.

12. Carson Beck, Miami quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 30/1

Entering the 2024 season, we (a collective we) viewed Beck as the best quarterback in the country on the best team in the country. He was supposed to lead Georgia back to the CFP, where the Dawgs would potentially win another title and cement Kirby Smart as the new, unopposed face of college football, and then he was supposed to head to the 2025 NFL Draft, where he’d be taken in the first round as a franchise’s savior. 

None of that happened. A year later, Beck is playing college ball for a different team. And he’s not even technically playing yet. After an up-and-down season with Georgia that ended with a torn ligament in his throwing arm, Beck hit the transfer portal. Miami is hoping he can do everything Cam Ward just did. Beck is hoping to revitalize his stock so he can actually get out of the college game. 

Funny thing, though. More is on Beck’s shoulders this season than was on Ward’s last season. Miami is replacing all of its top receivers and its leading running back. According to Bill Connelly’s returning production data, Miami brings back just 51% of its offensive production from last year’s team — a mark that ranks 82nd nationally. The defense is replacing a ton as well. 

Doesn’t actually sound all that unlike what Beck just went through at Georgia, where he struggled to build chemistry with a new crop of pass-catchers and felt like he had to do it all. If Beck is once again a turnover machine — 20 turnover-worthy plays, 12 interceptions — Miami will slip right back into the second tier of the ACC. And that’s assuming nothing lingers from the offseason shoulder injury.

But what if he’s that “best in class, future first-round pick” guy everyone thought he was going into last year? What if that actually comes to fruition? If he escapes the spotlight of Georgia and, against a weaker conference, terrorizes defenses the same way Ward did? Few in college football have the experience Beck holds. That’s worth something. The ACC is looking like a “Clemson or the field” kind of league in 2025, and Miami doesn’t play the Tigers in the regular season.  

11. Bryce Underwood, Michigan quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 22/1

Michigan is No. 13 in Bill Connelly’s initial SP+ ratings for the 2025 season. That’s a 13-spot increase from where the Wolverines ended the 2024 season. 

What changed? The Wolverines have a competent quarterback. 

Michigan is 29th in returning production, according to Connelly’s tracking. It signed the sixth-ranked high school class, welcomed a new offensive coordinator to Ann Arbor, and held onto defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. 

Sherrone Moore’s first season with the Wolverines wasn’t an easy one. Very little returned from the championship team the year before, and Moore had to work around a net-negative quarterback spot all year. Still, Michigan won 8 games while defeating Ohio State and Alabama. 

The Wolverines added Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene from the transfer portal to compete with Underwood in 2025. If Underwood isn’t quite ready, the hope is that Keene will provide a high enough floor for Michigan to challenge for a CFP spot while Underwood matures.

I’m not sure I agree with the thinking that Michigan is a legitimate CFP threat without Underwood. Keene had a 46.8 QBR last season and has 21 interceptions over the last 2 seasons. If Underwood loses the quarterback battle this offseason, I’ll head into the year with a healthy bit of skepticism about this team. 

But if Underwood wins the job and lives up to his billing, Michigan is absolutely going to the CFP. Hypothetically speaking, what if Underwood looks like DJ Lagway did last season, where the talent was obvious, the big plays were abundant, but the finer details of quarterback play were just a bit rough? A brilliant but raw Underwood can lead Michigan to 10 wins; the schedule is that favorable.

10. Julian Sayin, Ohio State quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 5/1

A 5-star prospect as a recruit, Sayin transferred before Alabama even gave him a number. He jumped to Ohio State, where he’d sit for a year behind Will Howard, learn the ropes, and then compete with a deep room of quarterbacks for the job in 2025. He threw a dozen passes as a true freshman and then watched the room around him empty during the winter months. 

If local reporting is to be believed, Sayin is the next Buckeye quarterback. 

Is he any good? 

“Julian’s one of the most accurate quarterbacks I’ve been around, and the ball just looks so pretty coming out of his hand,” Will Howard told reporters at the NFL Combine. “Like it spins prettier than I’ve seen a lot of balls come out of quarterbacks’ hands. And he’s got a real chance to be elite, man.”

When it was all said and done, Sayin was the No. 1 quarterback in his class, ahead of DJ Lagway and Dylan Raiola — both of whom got to start right away as freshmen. But 5-star status as a recruit means relatively little for quarterbacks. 

Jackson Arnold and Malachi Nelson were both 5-stars in the class before Sayin’s and both have already lost jobs and transferred. Connor Weigman, Ty Simpson, Sam Huard, Brock Vandagriff, all 5-stars who have all struggled, for one reason or another, to make a positive impact at the major collegiate level.  

Of course, Sayin could also be outstanding. Five-star recruits don’t just get handed that fifth star for no reason. And he’s had an opportunity to learn the game from a different perspective before being thrust into the fire. For some, that’s helpful. For others, it doesn’t matter. 

The last time I doubted a new Ohio State quarterback simply because he was green, Justin Fields threw for 41 touchdowns and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting. It helps to play for the Buckeyes, who are loaded at the skill positions every year. And Sayin will have the best receiver in the country to throw to. 

If he lives up to his recruiting profile, Ohio State stays in the mix of contending teams. If the Buckeyes take a step back in quarterback play because of the departing Will Howard/Chip Kelly combo, Ohio State (101st in returning production) might find it difficult to get back to the CFP semis.

9. Josh Heupel, Tennessee head coach

Odds to win the national championship: 20/1

Is Josh Heupel ready to unleash Nico Iamaleava in 2025? 

In Iamaleava, Tennessee has one of the sport’s most promising quarterbacks. He’s agile enough to make plays with his legs and has the arm talent to hit any spot on the field. The next step in his game is being able to layer his throws, but that’s a pretty standard progression for most young quarterbacks. 

Iamaleava posted a 92.1 passer grade on throws of at least 20 yards last season, but he attempted fewer shots than Joe Milton III did in 2023. And Milton had a 62.8 grade on 20-yard passes. During the offseason, Iamaleava’s proficiency in this area was supposed to be the greatest difference between him and his predecessor. 

But Heupel handled Iamaleava with kid gloves for most of the year. He had fewer than 25 pass attempts in 6 of his 13 appearances, and fewer than 30 pass attempts in 10 of his 13 appearances. 

Tennessee was content to lean on its ground game and its defense to earn a CFP berth. 

But that defense lost some key faces and the ground game has to replace Dylan Sampson. There’s no reason not to put the offense on Iamaleava’s arm in 2025. 

Will Heupel actually do that? I don’t know the answer to that question. And that leads me to believe Tennessee has a wide range of outcomes in 2025. 

Heupel is 30-9 over his last 3 seasons. He has 2 double-digit-win seasons during that time. Heupel’s 11 wins in 2022 were the most in a season in 20 years. In the 16 seasons prior to his arrival, Tennessee missed a bowl game 8 times. 

The floor has been raised in Knoxville. Significantly. But where’s the ceiling? In 2025, that’ll depend on how willing Heupel is to go for it.   

8. Dante Moore, Oregon quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 15/2

As a true freshman, the promise was evident the moment Dante Moore stepped on the field. He elevated the level of play within UCLA’s offense and changed a vertically-challenged passing attack. His second collegiate completion was for 39 yards. His third was a touchdown on third down. In a 1-point game later in the third quarter, Moore threw a 62-yard touchdown on the first play of a drive. 

While UCLA played yoyo with its quarterbacks during the 2023 season, Moore completed 53.5% of his throws for 1,610 yards and 10 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. He struggled with decision-making, but he was a true freshman. And he was never afforded an opportunity to work through mistakes. When he left Westwood, he sought a team in the transfer portal that would help him develop as a passer. 

At Oregon — the school he originally committed to before flipping late to UCLA — he found exactly what he wanted. Moore threw just 8 passes in 2024, preserving a redshirt season while sitting behind Dillon Gabriel. 

The Ducks ran through the regular season unbeaten, won the Big Ten, and earned the top seed in the CFP. Moore had a front-row seat for all of it, picking Gabriel’s brain along the way and learning from one of the most experienced quarterbacks in FBS history. 

Moore was a 5-star quarterback in the 2023 class. He was a top-5 recruit overall. The arm talent was evident when he was playing for UCLA, but so was the need for some seasoning. 

Oregon is outside the top 100 in returning production, per Connelly, but the offense is loaded. If Moore made the most of his gap year, Oregon will win double-digit games again and it’ll win at least one Playoff game. 

The Ducks face Penn State on the road, but they don’t face Ohio State or Michigan. USC is at home. Washington is Washington. 

Moore will have Evan Stewart, Justius Lowe, Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, and Kenyon Sadiq to throw to. He’ll have Makhi Hughes to hand off to. And he’ll have an elite tackle to protect him. 

If Moore doesn’t take a step, the Ducks are a prime candidate to disappoint. The talent drain year-over-year is real, and pick-6 problems marred Moore’s freshman year. He had a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.6% as a freshman, which placed him in the bottom 15 percentile among FBS passers with at least 250 dropbacks in 2023. That needs to get cleaned up. 

7. Tom Allen, Clemson defensive coordinator

Odds to win the national championship: 20/1

Cade Klubnik, Garrett Riley, a trio of promising receivers, and a pair of excellent tackles return to Clemson in 2025 hoping to return the Tigers to legitimacy. 

Clemson won the ACC again in 2024 and made it back to the College Football Playoff, but it was not a title contender. But Clemson hasn’t been that for years. 

Before 2024, that was because of the offense. The defense held up its end of the bargain while the offense sputtered around a subpar passing attack. 

During 2024, the script flipped and Clemson saw the floor fall out of the defense.

Since 2015, Clemson has ranked 11th or better in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted EPA per play metric 8 times. The Tigers were a top-10 unit every year from 2017-2021, dipped to 17th in 2022, rebounded to eighth in 2023, and tumbled down to 46th last fall. 

Per Game on Paper, Clemson ranked 113th nationally in EPA per run faced. They were fairly average on the line of scrimmage (58th percentile in line yards allowed) but gave up explosive run plays like candy. This was Clemson’s undoing in the CFP; Texas ran wild in the first round and Klubnik’s big numbers were rendered meaningless. 

Head coach Dabo Swinney chose to fire Wes Goodwin, who had coordinated the Clemson defense for the previous 3 years, and steal Tom Allen away from Penn State. 

Allen enjoyed major success in his lone season as the Nittany Lions’ defensive coordinator. Penn State ranked sixth nationally in EPA per run faced and closed the year in the CFP semifinals. Allen took over for Manny Diaz, who coordinated one of the best defenses in football during the 2023 year, and Penn State did not miss a beat. 

Penn State was also loaded on defense, with Abdul Carter leading the charge at the most important spot. Does Clemson have that kind of player? 

If it does, he hasn’t emerged. Can Allen find a diamond in the rough? Or, can he simply coax this unit into another outstanding unit. Clemson leads the nation in returning production, according to Connelly. There’s continuity everywhere.  

And yet the Tigers are considered a darkhorse to win the national championship in 2025. Why? 

If Allen fixes that run defense, Clemson is among my early title picks.  

6. DJ Lagway, Florida quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 50/1

I’ve mentioned Lagway’s name several times already. This list is long on promising young quarterbacks, but there’s only 1 with a higher ceiling than Lagway (we’ll get to him) and I’d argue there are none who have shown more thus far. 

As a first-year passer forced into action by injury, Lagway completed 59.9% of his attempts for 1,915 yards and 12 touchdowns. Lagway made 7 starts as a true freshman and took over for Graham Mertz for good in mid-October. Florida went 6-1 in games where Lagway started. The only loss, a 14-point defeat against Georgia in which Lagway left early on a cart with a hamstring injury. 

He had 15 big-time throws against only 1 turnover-worthy play on throws that traveled at least 20 yards, per PFF. His 95.6 passing grade on deep throws ranked third in the FBS and his 8.8% big-time throw rate on all plays led all qualified passers.

The arm talent was undeniable. The game-changing ability was clear. Florida was a different team over the back half of the season, in part because of the jolt Lagway provided. The Gators believed. And the confidence should be soaring going into 2025. 

Florida could be our first 3-loss Playoff participant. The schedule is daunting, but it was daunting last season and look at what Lagway accomplished. He has an entire offseason to work with the 1s, build chemistry, and lead the team. That’s valuable. And he has a “best in the country” ceiling when he puts it all together. 

Can Florida win a national championship? I’d argue that if the Gators win enough to make the CFP against the schedule they have, there won’t be a more dangerous team in the field. Or a more battle-tested. And Lagway would be one of the best quarterbacks in the field regardless of who his peers are. 

Perhaps I’m a year early on the hype. Sometimes the sophomore slump precedes a junior jump. If Lagway takes a bit longer than expected to get off the ground, Florida is battling for 7 wins. But I’d lean the other direction based on what we’ve seen.

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5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 13/2

Even with the worst Bulldogs team since Smart’s first year at the helm — 45th in net adjusted EPA per play this season, the worst Georgia mark since 2016 — the Bulldogs still won an SEC title. They would have made the 4-team CFP. Had they not gifted Notre Dame 14 points in a manner of minutes, they might have made the 12-team CFP semifinals. 

The loss to Notre Dame wasn’t on Stockton. I was actually encouraged by what I saw from him in his first career start. And Georgia had seen enough that it was reportedly ready to give him a shot. 

Georgia can win a national championship in 2025 because it is Georgia, because it has 1 of the 3 active head coaches who has done it before, and because it is 1 of only a handful of teams that is insulated against turnover. Georgia is one of the most talented teams in football. Will that yield a title? Or just a CFP appearance? That’ll be the question each year.   

In 2025, given how little we know about the quarterback spot, Georgia could go 1-and-done again. Last offseason, a bowl game earned Miller Moss the starting gig for USC and he lost that job midway through a 6-6 regular season. 

Not that Georgia is about to go 6-6, but I feel like I know the least about Stockton of any player on this list. 

We’ve see 1 game to really evaluate him on. Before that, it was spot snaps in garbage time. Stockton joined the program in 2022 as a 4-star recruit. He was the seventh-ranked quarterback in his class and has 9 career appearances in 3 years. 

I’m of the belief that major college football programs should just hit the portal after 2 years for a proven quarterback while building every other spot of the roster in a more traditional way. This exact spot is why. This is a high-stakes gamble from Smart and the Bulldogs.

4. Brian Kelly, LSU head coach

Odds to win the national championship: 20/1

Has anyone done less with more? 

Brian Kelly had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who took his NFL organization to the playoffs as a rookie, had 2 wide receivers who became instant-impact weapons in the NFL, and ended the year in the ReliaQuest Bowl. LSU dipped to 8 wins during the 2024 regular season. It was undone by Texas A&M after the Aggies swapped a statue for a runner at quarterback. It was blasted by Alabama. It lost to Florida. It lost to a mediocre USC team. The overtime win over Ole Miss or the referee-aided win over South Carolina saved Kelly from an offseason of very uncomfortable conversations.

Having talent hasn’t ever been the issue in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have been out-coached, out-schemed, and beaten by more disciplined teams under Kelly. They haven’t won a season-opener yet under Kelly, and they’ve lost 7 of their last 9 games against ranked opponents. 

If Kelly doesn’t produce in 2025, no buyout will be big enough to save him. That’s the reality of the situation, and Kelly seems to know it. The top-ranked transfer class suggests LSU is all-in on 2025. Garrett Nussmeier’s return adds to the urgency. 

This upcoming season, LSU will have a first-round talent at quarterback and a first-round talent at linebacker (if he stays healthy). They have continuity (38th in returning production) and upside. LSU can win the entire thing if the bracket breaks right. Or it could once again miss the CFP if a couple of losses pile up before October. 

3. Arch Manning, Texas quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 11/2

Like Ohio State, Texas is likely going back to the CFP regardless of what it gets from its quarterback. The Longhorns have stockpiled too much talent in Austin and have too favorable a schedule in 2025. 

But this team could sprint to a national championship if Manning is who everyone thinks he is. 

Manning has been hyped since he was in middle school. He was the No. 1 recruit in his class. He sat patiently and waited as a freshman. He played the dutiful backup role to perfection as a second-year man. And he lit the internet on fire when injuries forced him onto the field. 

Some have questioned if Steve Sarkisian’s allegiance to a less-than-100% Quinn Ewers last season was commentary on Manning. I would strongly push back against that suggestion. The 2024 season was Ewers’ final year to get himself primed for the NFL. The 2025 season was always going to be Manning’s to run with. Texas held steadfast to that plan, even when Longhorns fans cried out for the backup late last year. 

When he replaced an injured Ewers in the UTSA game, Manning’s first play was a 19-yard touchdown pass. His third play was a 67-yard touchdown run. He completed 68.3% of his passes for 583 yards (9.7 per attempt) and 4 touchdowns in 2 starts last season. 

If Manning isn’t ready for the moment, Texas might lose at Ohio State, it might lose to Georgia again, or it might have a disappointing showing in the CFP. Still a pretty high floor. 

If Manning is awesome, Texas is your national champion. And it won’t be close. The potential upward swing here is significant.

2. Ryan Grubb, Alabama offensive coordinator

Odds to win the national championship: 15/1

Alabama is No. 2 in Connelly’s initial SP+ ratings. The Tide haven’t gone anywhere. 

Watching Kalen DeBoer without Grubb stunk. Watching DeBoer without a quarterback who fit his system stunk. Both have been rectified this offseason. 

Simply put, I believe Grubb to be one of the best offensive minds in football. It didn’t work in Seattle. It happens. In Tuscaloosa, he’s back together with DeBoer, whom he’ll bounce ideas off of and find new ways to attack defenses. 

When they were together at Washington, I watched a fun, explosive, at times surgical offense just demoralize opponents. Grubb, DeBoer, and Michael Penix Jr. went balls to the wall in huge moments with innovative calls and complete trust in their team. 

UW had a quarterback who could make all the necessary throws. Jalen Milroe, for all his strengths, couldn’t. He and DeBoer should be commended for their effort in making it work, but we can all acknowledge that it didn’t. And Alabama was very un-Alabama-like as a result. 

With Grubb back in town, it’s far more likely Alabama looks more lethal in 2025. The Crimson Tide weren’t optimized last season. The pieces didn’t fit the project. Grubb will be able to put things together, and I expect the quarterback spot to yield cleaner play, regardless of who it is. 

Whether that’s Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, or Keelon Russell, Alabama has enough talent in place to join the offensive elite in college football. With the right quarterback, Grubb’s offenses at Washington ranked first (2022) and eighth (2023) in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. 

Alabama ranked 32nd last season. If Grubb works his magic, the Crimson Tide won’t have to fret about the CFP selection show in December.

1. Drew Allar, Penn State quarterback

Odds to win the national championship: 9/1

Penn State should be the favorite to win the title in 2025. The Nittany Lions have an experienced quarterback to headline an offense that returns more than three-quarters of last season’s production, per Connelly. James Franklin poached Jim Knowles from Ohio State to lead the defense. Though the transfer class is small, it might have an excellent hit rate, and it hammered the clear needs.

Oregon comes to Happy Valley. Michigan is off the schedule. Ohio State determines whether the Nittany Lions go back to the Big Ten title game. No one else should touch Franklin’s bunch. 

It’s natty or bust for Penn State. 

Like we saw with Ohio State after the 2023 season ended, a number of draft-eligible players eschewed the NFL to chase a national championship with Penn State.  

But Penn State doesn’t have the skill talent Ohio State had. It has to get elite play from its quarterback. 

Allar, a former 5-star prospect, is entering his third year as Penn State’s No. 1 quarterback. He was so-so in 2023, showing flashes but too much inconsistency. He made strides last season, working with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. But he came up short in the biggest moments. 

He threw for just 146 yards with an interception in the 20-13 loss to Ohio State in the regular season. In the CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame, he didn’t complete a single pass to a wide receiver and was picked off on his own side of the 50 with less than 40 seconds remaining in a tie game. 

“I was going through my progression and got to the backside, and honestly, I was just trying to dirt it at [his receiver’s] feet,” Allar said after the game. “I should have just thrown it away when I felt the first 2 progressions weren’t open, just because of the situation we were in.”

Allar had 10 turnover-worthy plays last season. Six of them came in his final 3 games. In 2025, Allar can’t make those kinds of mistakes. He can’t be great against bad teams and mistake-prone against good ones. He’s played too much ball, seen too many coverages.

He actually ended 2024 with a lower passer grade, a lower offensive grade, and a lower adjusted completion percentage than what he had in 2023, per PFF. 

Allar has long been thought of as a potential first-round pick/face of a club kind of player but has yet to actually live up to that potential. If it doesn’t happen in 2025, it might not at all. 

But development isn’t often as linear as we’d all like it to be. Allar is the difference between a title and more of the same for Penn State in 2025.